Typical Entry & Exit Points

[smudger78]

Just mulling over a few ideas for strategies whilst learning the ropes. It seems with in play tennis that there can be a lot of fluctation and over reaction in games so long as the players are fairly evenly matched. Has anyone looked at "typical" ranges of prices where you would expect to get matched at some point over the course of a game on both sides in the majority of games? (Eg: lay 1.25, back 1.50 on the favourite)?

[doubleback]

This is purely Tradeshark's strategy, not my own, i have used it but i found it wasn't my style of trading, it works though!

You are looking for one of 2 scores.....either 15-40 or 0-40 ( ie 2 or 3 break points) 15-40 is my favourite and also occurs more often. It offers a better price to enter the market.

If the receiving player has got himself to 40 there is a very good chance he will win one of the next 2 points. Once you see one of the qualifying scores you back the receiver ( or lay the server). Green up when the break point is won.

Your greened up profit should be approximately 5% of stake used.

If the server pulls back to 40-40, hedge for a small loss ( again, about 5% or smaller)

During an average match you will get anywhere from 2 to 4 opportunities. Obviously more in 5 setters.

Rules: 15-40 or 0-40 are the ONLY entry points. DO NOT be tempted to gamble on 30-40. You will lose more often than you win

Green up after the break

If the server pulls back to 40-40 hedge for the loss and wait for the next opportunity.

If the set has gone to a tie break wait until one player is 2 mini breaks up ( ie has won 2 points against the serve ) then back that player.

[jibiko]

It seems with in play tennis that there can be a lot of fluctation and over reaction in games so long as the players are fairly evenly matched.

It seems to me that there can be a lot of fluctation and over reaction in games,
even if the players are not evenly matched.

Has anyone looked at "typical" ranges of prices where you would expect to get matched at some point over the course of a game on both sides in the majority of games? (Eg: lay 1.25, back 1.50 on the favourite)?

I don't understand the question. Can you rephrase it, put it in a different way?

For entry & exit points, entry & exit signals, in general, you can check
our TT_tt book, chapters 1, 7, 8.

________
tennis beta tester ver 0.3
2010, still not loving cockroaches.

[mark]

It is a very difficult question to answer regarding entry and exit points as there is no system as such that works because for example you have Karlovic serving then his odds wont change much if he holds serve as he does it the majority of times but if on the other hand he breaks serve then his price will dimish quickly as again he rarely does that and because his own serve is so strong usually one break is set over and this is reacted in the prices. Another player Elena Dementiev one of my personal favourite has an appaling serve although not as bad as it once was yet her return of serve is one of the best in the game as it has to be so if she holds serve then that will cause as much reaction in the market as if she breaks her opponents serve etc.

As you can see it is about trying to get to know players strengths and weakness and if you ddo that then you will be able to identify the prices when they are wrong.

Hope this helps.

[rockaren]

mark just said what I was going to say
Its all about which players are involved, is it ATP or WTA etc.....some WTA games are more breaks of serve than holds.
I would say, there are NO strategies that works on all tennis games, in the end you must learn how to 'read' tennis match and just got a feeling.

Its my opinion.Tradesharks strategy is in no way something for me....

[jibiko]

Please, allow me to quote BettingSherlock again, from this thread:

- Strategies based on actual knowledge of the game of tennis.
- Strategies based on the market mechanism.
- Of course you can combine strategies from both groups in one match.

I think, BettingSherlock puts it correct.
Allow me also to input in here numbers, stats, patterns, visual patterns, graphs
(maybe all these can be included in the market mechanism too)
as some things to base strategies/tactics on.

________
tennis beta tester ver 0.3
2010, still not loving cockroaches.

[Cran]

I would say, there are NO strategies that works on all tennis games

When you are trading on probabilities it doesn't need to work on all matches, just on enough matches that your winnings are more than your loses in the long term...

What's better?

90% hit rate
Win £1 X 90
Lose £10 X 10

or

10% Hit rate
Lose £1 x 90
Win £10 x 10

Just mulling over a few ideas for strategies whilst learning the ropes. It seems with in play tennis that there can be a lot of fluctuation

So try to take advantage of this while keeping your liability low.

[rockaren]

When you are trading on probabilities it doesn't need to work on all matches, just on enough matches that your winnings are more than your loses in the long term...

Did you try to lay a player every time at 15-40 and hedging for a loss every time they are back to 40-40....and how many times after 40-40 other player gets another breakpoint and breaks serve ?
Its just a question it seems like you know what you are talking about

I am not a statistician lol

[smudger78]

Glad i started this thread now, some good advice/debate...thanks guys.... I'm just trading min stakes and trying to get to know players but i guess my thoughts were that if you could devise a strategy which had a high strike rate you could take the losing matches as in the long run you'd be in front. I was thinking from the point of view of someone who only knows a little about tennis and wants to try his arm at different strategies at low risk/stake whilst building up my knowledge. It does seem that most matches i've watched fluctuate enough to allow you to get in and out in a given "safe zone" somewhere in the middle of the spread at a respectable profit.

Just a few thoughts. Whilst i'm thinking, will liquidity be a problem in tournaments such as the ones later on tonight - doesn't seem to be a lot doing at the moment??

[Cran]

Did you try to lay a player every time at 15-40 and hedging for a loss every time they are back to 40-40....

I don't use 15-40 but it's a similar principle. What matters is that you make enough from the winning trades to cover the losing trades plus some profit after commission.

I mainly analyse historical data and then use a one hammer fits all approach rather than watching the scoreboard.

Get in when the odds are at the right price (backing first with high odds, laying first with low odds to keep liability low) then green up or scratch according to the probabilities and the odds.

Other times (for this I do watch the match) I'll lay favourites who start at very low odds against a good server (men's matches later rounds) hoping that they get off to a poor start and then green up if/when they start coming back into the match. The losses are frequent but small, and when the fav does starts badly you have a big up side and take your profits.

I'm not actually that good at Tennis trading, but I can use databases which is why I take the stats approach

It worked quite well in October when i started, but wasn't so great in November, no matches in December and too early to say for January yet.

[rockaren]

Just a few thoughts. Whilst i'm thinking, will liquidity be a problem in tournaments such as the ones later on tonight - doesn't seem to be a lot doing at the moment??

There could be some problems with liquidity but also some great opportunities as you may see in my post...

http://www.geekstoy.com/forum/showpost.php?p=10701&postcount=12