brisbane

[smudger78]

Only one match of interest for me here tonight and that is Ana Ivanovic V Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and I feel strongly that Ana will win this. I am not trading it but it is a match I will watch as it sould make fascinating viewing to see how Anastasia who I believe to be one of the best youngsters around equips herself against who I think will be close to the number one in womens tennis this year.

Hi Mark,

Been reading your thoughts on the Tennis with interest. Could I ask why this match isn't one you intend to trade on? Are there certain types of matches to avoid?

Thanks

Smudger

[mark]

Hi Smudger,

Not really anything to avoid but I just have a few places that I trade on and when they play each oher I tend to avoid the game and as these are two players who I follow closely I just want to watch it and then probably follow the winner into the semi finals. My trading only really kicks into gear at the Australian Open and after as everthing up to that point from the players perspective is geared towards peaking for the Aussie open.

[mark]

Ana Ivanovic V Justine Henin - Ana has never beaten Justine but them games were played when Ana was building her way in the game and Justine was at the top now I think this will be Justine's most difficult game to date and I am backing Ana Ivanovic @ 2.92 as I am shocked at the price and am sure she will trade lower during play. She has looked fairly sharp this week during her matches just having a flat time and she has tended to lose a set then pick her game back up, Justine started off well but loooked very shaky in her victory of Czink and only just scraped through in a tight 3 setter with her serve looking particulary vulnerable.

Back Ana Ivanovic @ 2.92

[mark]

Credit to Henin she played excellently and I got that one badly wrong. Now I have looked at why I placed my bet and still think it was ok as I was getting a bigger price on Ivanovic than I thought she should b,e it is always a risk at the beginning of the season but that was factored inth the price so I have to just hold my hands up on this one and say I got it wrong.

Today's final see's Clijstes V Henin in action and it is certainly a match to trade in play as I have no firm opinion beforehand but am looking forward to this match a huge amount. Head to head is 10-10 but again they have not played for such along time in competitive tennis that statistic is largely irrelevant. If I was pushed then I would probably side with Clijsters solely for the reason that nerves may just affect Henin in the early part of the game.

[mark]

I am going for a cheeky lay of Kim Clijsters @ 1.69 as I just think that Justine is beginning to settle down and this looke like being a top class final

[mark]

The match is super quality and very close, Kim been broken once and Justine's serve looking vulnerable as she has been broken twice but I still have to say that I firmly believe this has 3 sets written all over it and am topping up my lay of Kim @ 1.27 which is far too short a price in a match of this quality.

[mark]

If Kim breaks here I exit here and stake to lose around 60% on each but hopefully she will hold and at some point in the match put some pressure on Kim.

[mark]

Now I desperately need Justine to hold her serve here!!!!

[mark]

Now this is a tough decision either trade out for around 60% red or let it ride as the match seems to be heading towards Justine???? As my stakes are not the highest I am ging to let it run

[mark]

Now I am backing Kim @ 1.80 the standard of that second set was bloody awful

[mark]

Hopefully now people will be able to see the value of watching matches rather than trading without pictures as if you had not of had pictures and you set the exit point at a certain level which we all do, in this match that level was reached but by watching it was clear it was a close match and Justine was coming back into it so although all sensible reasoning says get out of the trade by just watching the match I was able to turn a potential 60% red screen into a decent green screen. Now it is time to use some of the profit into laying Henin will tighen the closer she gets to the winning line.

Lay Justine Henin @ 1.33

[mark]

Back Justine Henin @ 1.76 and I think that will probably do it now for this match as the prices are fairly even now.

[pelican]

Hopefully now people will be able to see the value of watching matches rather than trading without pictures as if you had not of had pictures and you set the exit point at a certain level which we all do, in this match that level was reached but by watching it was clear it was a close match and Justine was coming back into it so although all sensible reasoning says get out of the trade by just watching the match I was able to turn a potential 60% red screen into a decent green screen. Now it is time to use some of the profit into laying Henin will tighen the closer she gets to the winning line.

Lay Justine Henin @ 1.33

agreed. watching live gives you a"feel" for who is in the ascendancy , also allows you to respond quickly enough in the event of someone picking up an injury rather than, in effect, trading half blind.

[Temujin]

Here is a screenshot from the Mens final. About as perfect as the Womens final for trading, although, fair to suggest I didn't trade it like this.....