Late goals

[Scumbag trader]

i think that approach can be gambling, unless maybe you have a stop loss in.

This guy lays the draw or the favourite at the 60th min. maybe not every game, like you said maybe if the team your betting against looks vulnerable

http://www.totalgambler.com/othersports/features/50/ed_murray.html

[Mickey Pearce]

i think that approach can be gambling, unless maybe you have a stop loss in.

This guy lays the draw or the favourite at the 60th min. maybe not every game, like you said maybe if the team your betting against looks vulnerable

http://www.totalgambler.com/otherspo...ed_murray.html

That article was from 2005.

What's DJ doing now, is he still trading?

[Timstertoo]

To make it pay, the price would have to be alot lower then 1.10 . .
1.04 1.03 maybe. . .

I would be looking for odds like this and only do it on matches I can see. One team, not per necessarily the favorites, has to be clearly looking for and be deemed capable of making that late goal.

Doesn't matter if it's the team that's 6-0 behind and wanting to save their honour or it's the team that's 4-0 up and their attackers are polishing their stats.

I'll have to go find some stats to back it up but I'm pretty sure that for instance my team, Ajax, quite often make goals in injury time when they've won the game already. There's something about the other teams spirit been broken and not caring too much anymore that just gives enough space to the very eager strikers for whom every goal is important. If it's still 0-0 I wouldn't do it if it was with Ajax, or most teams really, as the defending team will still give it their all to keep it that way.

I do notice that the markets tend to overreact a bit towards the end by getting real close to that 1.03 etc with quite some time to play, so I don't think the odds are unattainable, question is, is it profitable.

[Scalper]

That article was from 2005.

What's DJ doing now, is he still trading?

Went broke so packed it in.

[Mickey Pearce]

Went broke so packed it in.

Is that true Scalper or are you having a laugh?

[Knight Rider]

Those two pro footy traders over at the Nugget Crew have just released their latest video. Said it was about late goals. Cant seem to get the link to work though.....keep getting this.....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wNnK14TkkWY

[Scumbag trader]

Rofl !!!!!!!

[Scalper]

Is that true Scalper or are you having a laugh?

I was joking, not sure what happened to him.

[geggs1]

Today i've been putting lay bets of £75 @1.04 on correct score (football) my 7th lay was a winner in the egypt game. . .
£57 up on the day with this stratagy. . .
I'll keep doing this till the end of oct and see what the P&L ends up at . . .

If i'm still in profit come the 31st oct, i'll be sending my CV off to the fiercely independent nugget crew to see if any jobs are going

[Timstertoo]

Today i've been putting lay bets of £75 @1.04 on correct score (football) my 7th lay was a winner in the egypt game. . .
£57 up on the day with this stratagy. . .
I'll keep doing this till the end of oct and see what the P&L ends up at . . .

If i'm still in profit come the 31st oct, i'll be sending my CV off to the fiercely independent nugget crew to see if any jobs are going

Now that is interesting, do you also do any match selection based on the play or is it just any match that hits 1.04 after x minutes is an automatic lay?

[genozzolo]

at which minute u lay ? 90 or 75 or 80 or 85 ?

[geggs1]

at which minute u lay ? 90 or 75 or 80 or 85 ?

I put the bets in before kick off . .(think i just got lucky yesterday tbh)

[TRADER68]

if you want another idea on laying at low odds, then what about laying the leading team at ht. Sunderland today were 1.07 at one point at a sp of 1.75 or around that area. This means that sunderland had around 60% chance of winning the match before kick off assuming the market was correct. At a price of 1.07 before ht, is that not worth a lay, considering that only 35% of teams that lead in the first half continue to win the game if there implied chance of winning is 60% before kick off.

This is similar to something i came across while laying winning teams at short odds.To start i would look for two evenly matched teams,where one goes 2-0 up with at least 30 minutes to go.Preferably watching the game or at least knowing the team 2-0 down still had 11 players on the pitch and not loads of booked players.At this point i would place a small lay,which if the winning team were to go 3 ahead would more than likely kill the lay.As the game goes on and any goal for the losing team would give you green.As the odds drop as the game goes on if you get the figures correct you can still green by laying more at a price never reached then backing at 1 tick higher(when the odds reach a certain level they normally bounce about a bit depending on whats happening in the game).Again a third goal would kill both your lays,but occasionally you may get lucky if after both lays are matched the losing team score before your back bet is taken.It may give you 20 minutes or so where the risk of your first lay is a small loss.I have only played about with this and wouldnt be sure of the best place to lay your second bet.Also i dont know how succesfull this would be as i know sometimes prices can go right through the low numbers.Saying that they can hit 1.05 then bounce out to 1.10.
e-g lay £3 @ 1.15 liability £0.45
lay £50 @ 1.05 liability £2.50
back £53@ 1.06 =£3.18 leaving 23p green on fav
This is only an example at the lower odds there is usually lots of liquidity.
Has any one with knowledge in these markets any thoughts on how this would work on a bigger scale on a regular basis.All criticism welcome.

[Temujin]

There is no 1 trade entering strategy in Soccer that is more considered gambling than any other. In fact, for any kind of trading. It is all a gamble.
As for late goals, it would be a strategy that involved lots of losers, and a few big pay days. With such a low strike rate, it would take a huge data sample to find out if you were profitable or not.

The psychology behind it, would suggest that like us punters, the later a game goes on, the less likely a goal will happen, especially when you are dealing with a "slit your wrists boring" game like Soccer that can easily end with both teams having scored 0 goals.
Add to that, unathletic people not fit enough to run out a full game, and imho, the likelihood of a goal increases.

Just look at how often you see people talking about always losing in the last race they trade. Time is still ticking, but the mind has turned off. Same thing here. The time says it can't happen, but physical and mental fatigue suggests that if it is going to, that is when it will.

So really, as far as Soccer goes, if you are prepared to put the time in actually watching the shit, and putting up with a lot of losing, I would think it is one of the better strategies around. But then again, because you are playing so late in the game, this is more a betting strategy, as you don't have any intention of trading out. It is a simple value bet system.