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Hi , i know martingale is a strategy more used in roulette and it is a sure fire way to poorhouse. But i would like to offer an alternative view to it by using it on football.
The reason why martingale fails is due to the fact that current event has no memory of past history and every event is an independent event. In another words it is totally possible for a long losing streak in games where the above rule applies (such as roulette)
However in football, such rule does not apply, the preparation of this game is related to the result of previous game. So my hypothesis is using martingale in football betting would work.
I would suggest focusing on two markets, match odds and sent off. My idea is to lay the draw and lay the sent off - yes for every game pre off and hold it till full time. If a draw or a sent off happens in a game, lay the losses in the next game, and then if it happened again, lay the total losses in the subsequent game until you recoup the losses. The rational behind this is if a team keeps on drawing (which is unsustainable, a draw only gives 1 point, while a victory gives 3 points, it takes 1 victory to offset 3 draws), the manager will prepare his team to take more risks, and will result in either a win or a lost, so the chances of draw reduces by every game. The same logic works for red cards, if a team has accumulate a lot of red cards, surely the manager would cautioned his team to control their aggression, so the chances of sent off reduces game by game.
Checking back in history i have only seen 4 consecutive draws at most for the top 4 teams in major european leagues. And even that it is rare enough.
Obviously when a streak develops the red would look scary. In order to control risk and prevent a bank bust, i thought of two variations to this strategy : setting a loss cap where you no longer chase losses beyond it or only recouping 75 % of the losses in next match.
Thoughts?
The reason why martingale fails is due to the fact that current event has no memory of past history and every event is an independent event. In another words it is totally possible for a long losing streak in games where the above rule applies (such as roulette)
However in football, such rule does not apply, the preparation of this game is related to the result of previous game. So my hypothesis is using martingale in football betting would work.
I would suggest focusing on two markets, match odds and sent off. My idea is to lay the draw and lay the sent off - yes for every game pre off and hold it till full time. If a draw or a sent off happens in a game, lay the losses in the next game, and then if it happened again, lay the total losses in the subsequent game until you recoup the losses. The rational behind this is if a team keeps on drawing (which is unsustainable, a draw only gives 1 point, while a victory gives 3 points, it takes 1 victory to offset 3 draws), the manager will prepare his team to take more risks, and will result in either a win or a lost, so the chances of draw reduces by every game. The same logic works for red cards, if a team has accumulate a lot of red cards, surely the manager would cautioned his team to control their aggression, so the chances of sent off reduces game by game.
Checking back in history i have only seen 4 consecutive draws at most for the top 4 teams in major european leagues. And even that it is rare enough.
Obviously when a streak develops the red would look scary. In order to control risk and prevent a bank bust, i thought of two variations to this strategy : setting a loss cap where you no longer chase losses beyond it or only recouping 75 % of the losses in next match.
Thoughts?
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