Super League: Week 1. Non Televised Games

[The Real Moaner]

Only one this week - Harlequins v Wakefield on Saturday afternoon at 3pm.

In play liquidity is practically nil so unless you are following the match, you probably won't have many in play trading opportunities.

Those of you who followed my thoughts last year became aware of my "home fallacy" theory. Basically, I considered that the market greatly overrated home teams.

I think it might be back.

Now, it is very early to say, and Week One is usually a leveller, and obviously I am relying on paper squads, and team news is not out yet, but I am simply astonished that Wakefield are the outsiders at Harlequins.

Now, I am much higher on Wakefield and much lower on Quins than the bookies are in general, but when you consider that Quins will be without their captain Rob Purdham, and scrum half Luke Dorn, and I just wonder how they are favourites.

Anyone see something I'm missing? I'd price Wakefield 1.75 conservatively at a neutral venue. (Would be lower but for the fact it is Week 1) and even a 10% swing for the ground makes them favourites.

Finally, Wakefield are traditionally a fast starting side who fade as the season goes on. John Kear tends to have a heavy pre season to get his players in match shape before the start of the season and the Quins have only had one friendly I believe, and that was against London Skolars?

Update: I've just seen the Quins possible line up and dear god it is very poor. (They'll probably win now, RL can be a random game but I don't get the price at all.) Starting to worry what I am missing because this looks weird.

[The Real Moaner]

Harlequins RL squad

Bolger, Clubb, Esders, Gale, Golden, Howell, James, Jones-Bishop, Kaye, McCarthy-Scarsbrook, Melling, O'Callaghan, Orr, Randall, Sharp, Ward, Wilkes, Williams, Williamson.

Wakefield Wildcats squad

Gleeson, Millard, George, Jeffries, Brough, Tronc, Newton, Korkidas, Ferguson, Morrison, Demetriou, Obst, Johnson, Henderson, Murphy, King, Leo-Latu, Morton, Moore.

Possible line ups may be:

Jones Bishop, Melling, Clubb, Howell, Sharp, Orr, Gale, McCarthy Scarsbrook, Randall, Wilkes, Williamson, Golden, Esders. Bench James, Kaye, Ward, Williams.

Murphy, George, Millard, Henderson, Gleeson, Jeffries, Brough, Tronc, Newton, Korkidas, Morrison, Johnson, Demetriou. Bench: Ferguson, Obst, Moore, King.

I'll admit that the more I look at the Wakefield back line, the more I am concerned but I feel like I'm looking for reasons to avoid tipping Wakefield. However, I would make Wakefield clear favourites on a neutral venue, and I believe that the home advantage is always overstated. Wakefield are now 5/4 and that's too big. Again, slightly concerned at what I might be missing, but Wakefield look great value.

[The Real Moaner]

Sides are now approaching the same price, and I'm not sure there's sufficient value there to justify a heavy bet for the first game of the season.

Funnily enough, the draw price for most non TV games last year would often be around 24. For an evens game, 25s look appealing although there's been a bit traded above this.

In the measure of full disclosure, I am currently large on the draw and hoping the price will come in. Also got baited into settling my Wakefield book at too low a price.

[The Real Moaner]

Teams


(26) Ben Jones-Bishop FULL BACK Aaron Murphy (18)
(1) Chris Melling WINGER Luke George (5)
(3) Tony Clubb CENTRE Sean Gleeson (3)
(4) David Howell CENTRE Daryl Millard (4)
(5) Will Sharp WINGER Dale Morton (23)
(21) Luke Gale STAND OFF Sam Obst (14)
(7) Danny Orr SCRUM HALF Danny Brough (7)
(14) Oliver Wilkes PROP Michael Korkidas (10)
(9) Chad Randall HOOKER Tevita Leo-Latu (20)
(10) Louis McCarthy-Scarsbrook PROP Shane Tronc (8)
(11) Luke Williamson SECOND ROW Dale Ferguson (11)
(18) Ryan Esders SECOND ROW Kevin Henderson (17)
(16) Jason Golden LOOSE FORWARD Glenn Morrison (12)

(22) Jamie O'Callaghan SUBS Ben Jeffries (6)
(19) Matty James Terry Newton (9)
(17) Danny Ward Jason Demetriou (13)
(28) Ben Bolger Richard Moore (25)

Wakefield bench is VERY light. Tronc must be expected to play 70 with Korkidas and Moore rotating.

Can't work out why Jeffries is on the bench.

Quins pretty much as expected. Ward can offer impact from the bench and Mc Carthy Scarsbrook and Randall are quality, but that pack is woeful.

[The Real Moaner]

Was tempted to lay off my Wakefield bet prior to kick off but opted not to. Did lay off my draw bet however.

I have bets with different bookmakers to start the game but believe my current position to be.

Harlequins - 37
Wakefield + 50
Draw - 37

Currently no money in the market at all.

[The Real Moaner]

Wakefield 12 - 4 Quins.

Can count on one hand the money matched in the first half!

[The Real Moaner]

Wakefield won 18 - 10. Both teams had a man sent off at the end for fighting.

Disappointed to have callled a 2.3 shot and only end £27 up. Had told myself I had to back my judgement more this season but yet again, I chickened out!

Also practically no liquidity during the game which was disappointing.

One good thing is that I placed a bet on Wakefield at a bookmaker this afternoon once Wakey's odds crashed on Betfair so the -£350 + in my BF account will help to offset the Premium Charge later this year.