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seeing as tonight saw my biggest loss for a long time, see sodding soccer section 
thought i would put this up as someone asked me too...probably a lot of poo... but my mind is fried 
In-running and my thoughts
In-running “trading” is seen as a no no by traditional pre-race traders because of the risks involved, what are those risks? Well lets take the in play layer (those that lay 1st)
Say John Layer lays a horse at odds of 12.0 for £10 his risk is infact £110 should the selection win, and of course £10 win should it lose, he may do this 11 times or more and get away with it, but as the odds dictate a winner will come along at those odds, taking a large chuck of his bank, unless he trades out for the lower loss or indeed an even lower loss spread over all runners.
Lets say the lays were
12.0 @ £10 potential loss = £110
The race is not going to plan and the selection does not go above 12.0, infact its soon 8.0, then 6.0, the layer acts and backs at 7.0 for £10 mean a potential win of £60, this will make the potential loss = to £50, with the option of “spreading the loss over the field for even less, lets say 6.0, therefore spread loss = £50/6 = £8.33, of course the mindset coupled with speed to take the decision is something that a lot of people will not be comfortable with.
The potential loss of £110 is something a lot of people will not be comfortable, I know I am not !!
I play/trade in-running around 90% of the time, I have my own rules which are basic, these are
Always back 1st as potential losses are lower
Keep Stakes in check, Min £4, Maximum £25
All selections are “looked” up ie form read and a rough idea on how I think the horse will run, fast pace, held up, from behind, midfield, prominent, the information for punters on the net is massive, compared to what it was 30 years ago when I placed my 1st bets with bookmakers, the Doubles/trebles/Yankees, either win or E/W, it was harder then yet somehow I could find winners, that led to doubles/trebles and occasionally a Yankee, with odds from 1/1 to 20/1.
Be aware of the actual time it takes to run a race, a 5 Furlong race will take about 1 minute and a 3mile 3furlong slog will take up to 6+ minutes, so if you placing backs 1/2 way through a race, then the chance to get out could have presented itself around 40 seconds previously…
How to read form?
Keep it simple, the racing post will carry the horses past performances, and will rate the horse accordingly, Fractsoft likewise will show form and give a good detailed description on how “it went” in the race as well as form pointers/ratings, these on there own can find winners( but we are not looking for winners) Watch the racing to form opinons.
Jockey form, it goes without saying that most horses carrying top jockeys deserved to be look at, AP McCoys mounts almost, always run well because he can get the best out it, I have seen his mounts on the off go from 12 to 5 in seconds, then out to 1000, back into odds on
Listen to timeform, I don’t bother with ATR commentary as its behind the radio by around 1 or 2 seconds, I find the radio guys talk about back to lays on a host of selections, I then look up the selection to see why they thought this and to see if it compares with my opinions, I have even emailed a few in myself.
Betfair when you look at the race card click on the selections name, it will show you more information on past races that is invaluable, lets say Horse A came 4th
In its last race and you read the comments(fracsoft comments are mainly for flat races), that it was prominent and driven in the final furlong, its odds at the off were say 9.0, and its lowest IR was 1.9, this for me would be added to my shortlist, I would then look at its other (if any races) and its odds, the way the odds fall or indeed rise Inrunning along with the comments tell us how the horse performed, there is a another site that deals with this type of selection process, where selections are based purely on past in-running performances on how the odds Tumbled, as a lot of horses will go off at a price, only to see its odds half or more In-running, a lot don’t win buts that’s immaterial if you have back a horse at 8.0, then layed at 2.0 with a green stake
IE:
Back 8.0 @ £10 = £70 win
Lay 2.0 @ £10 = £10 loss
Hedge @ £60/2 = £30 profit no matter who wins.
Of course the horse goes on and loses but you win.
I don’t go that low, my own plan sees me look for a minimal 6 to 16 tick drop, I have been lucky sometimes where the drop has gone below my mark, before I place the lay.
6 ticks? Well lets say I use my max stake of £25 on odds of say 6.5
Back £25 @ 6.5 = £137.5 win potential
Lay £25 @ 5.9 = £122.5 loss
Leaves £15 to hedge at current odds say 5.5 so £2.72 profit
10 ticks
Back £25 at 6.5 = £137.5 Win
Lay £25 at 5.5 = 112.5 loss
Leaves £25 to hedge at current odds say 5.3 so £4.71 profit
16 ticks
Back £25 at 6.5 = £137.5 win
Lay £25 @ 4.9 = £97 loss
Leaves £40 to hedge at current odds say 4.7 so £8.51
It goes without saying the more ticks drop, the bigger potential profit, providing it reaches the odds you want.
Losses and there will be some, you have to have a plan to get “out” when I back with any stake then I know I how much I will potentally lose, but like the layer example I am willing to lay above the odds I backed at, if I feel it has gone against me, example and this was from Sunday,
Backed at 7.8 for £25, lay sitting at 5.0(already with the greened amount) it gets to 7.0, then goes to 8.0 it’s a 2 mile race which I am listening too and watching, the odds stay at 8.0, then it hits 10.0, 12.0, then back to 8.0, i have cancelled the lay at 5.0 and now I have placed it at 9.0 its matched so now I am looking a loss of
Back £25 @ 7.8 = £170
Lat £25 @ 9.0 = £200
Potential loss of -£30 should it go on and win, now I wait with my finger on the mouse ready to RED up should it reverse and come on strong I am at the original odds I wanted of 5.0, its soon at 6.0 so I place it at 5.0 for a potential all red book of £6, it never reaches 5.0 and is soon up to 20.0/30/80 and upwards, my loss on other horse were £0, and my potential loss of £30 averted due to its not winning, however it would have been reduced to £6, had it reached 5.0 and in my book £6 is easier to recover than £30.
Is it possible to make money like this, my answer is yes, providing you have a game plan,
Your selection ( and the reasoning for it)
Staking (start out small) don’t go above big amounts, I would say no more than £50, you may find getting matched on the way down a problem, with just a partial match, in which case its best to bail out with the hedge button.
Be prepared to take a loss, and to cut the loss further.
Keep you wits about you, its not for everyone I just find it easier than placing say £200 to back, then the £200 lay say 1 tick down and surprisingly less stressful.
Of course I may be speaking balls as I cant really put into words how I think at times
And paying the PC means I am in profit at the moment.
Good luck.
PS... IN-PLAY SOCCER a no no for me... repeat NO !!!
thought i would put this up as someone asked me too...probably a lot of poo... but my mind is fried In-running and my thoughts
In-running “trading” is seen as a no no by traditional pre-race traders because of the risks involved, what are those risks? Well lets take the in play layer (those that lay 1st)
Say John Layer lays a horse at odds of 12.0 for £10 his risk is infact £110 should the selection win, and of course £10 win should it lose, he may do this 11 times or more and get away with it, but as the odds dictate a winner will come along at those odds, taking a large chuck of his bank, unless he trades out for the lower loss or indeed an even lower loss spread over all runners.
Lets say the lays were
12.0 @ £10 potential loss = £110
The race is not going to plan and the selection does not go above 12.0, infact its soon 8.0, then 6.0, the layer acts and backs at 7.0 for £10 mean a potential win of £60, this will make the potential loss = to £50, with the option of “spreading the loss over the field for even less, lets say 6.0, therefore spread loss = £50/6 = £8.33, of course the mindset coupled with speed to take the decision is something that a lot of people will not be comfortable with.
The potential loss of £110 is something a lot of people will not be comfortable, I know I am not !!
I play/trade in-running around 90% of the time, I have my own rules which are basic, these are
Always back 1st as potential losses are lower
Keep Stakes in check, Min £4, Maximum £25
All selections are “looked” up ie form read and a rough idea on how I think the horse will run, fast pace, held up, from behind, midfield, prominent, the information for punters on the net is massive, compared to what it was 30 years ago when I placed my 1st bets with bookmakers, the Doubles/trebles/Yankees, either win or E/W, it was harder then yet somehow I could find winners, that led to doubles/trebles and occasionally a Yankee, with odds from 1/1 to 20/1.
Be aware of the actual time it takes to run a race, a 5 Furlong race will take about 1 minute and a 3mile 3furlong slog will take up to 6+ minutes, so if you placing backs 1/2 way through a race, then the chance to get out could have presented itself around 40 seconds previously…
How to read form?
Keep it simple, the racing post will carry the horses past performances, and will rate the horse accordingly, Fractsoft likewise will show form and give a good detailed description on how “it went” in the race as well as form pointers/ratings, these on there own can find winners( but we are not looking for winners) Watch the racing to form opinons.
Jockey form, it goes without saying that most horses carrying top jockeys deserved to be look at, AP McCoys mounts almost, always run well because he can get the best out it, I have seen his mounts on the off go from 12 to 5 in seconds, then out to 1000, back into odds on
Listen to timeform, I don’t bother with ATR commentary as its behind the radio by around 1 or 2 seconds, I find the radio guys talk about back to lays on a host of selections, I then look up the selection to see why they thought this and to see if it compares with my opinions, I have even emailed a few in myself.
Betfair when you look at the race card click on the selections name, it will show you more information on past races that is invaluable, lets say Horse A came 4th
In its last race and you read the comments(fracsoft comments are mainly for flat races), that it was prominent and driven in the final furlong, its odds at the off were say 9.0, and its lowest IR was 1.9, this for me would be added to my shortlist, I would then look at its other (if any races) and its odds, the way the odds fall or indeed rise Inrunning along with the comments tell us how the horse performed, there is a another site that deals with this type of selection process, where selections are based purely on past in-running performances on how the odds Tumbled, as a lot of horses will go off at a price, only to see its odds half or more In-running, a lot don’t win buts that’s immaterial if you have back a horse at 8.0, then layed at 2.0 with a green stake
IE:
Back 8.0 @ £10 = £70 win
Lay 2.0 @ £10 = £10 loss
Hedge @ £60/2 = £30 profit no matter who wins.
Of course the horse goes on and loses but you win.
I don’t go that low, my own plan sees me look for a minimal 6 to 16 tick drop, I have been lucky sometimes where the drop has gone below my mark, before I place the lay.
6 ticks? Well lets say I use my max stake of £25 on odds of say 6.5
Back £25 @ 6.5 = £137.5 win potential
Lay £25 @ 5.9 = £122.5 loss
Leaves £15 to hedge at current odds say 5.5 so £2.72 profit
10 ticks
Back £25 at 6.5 = £137.5 Win
Lay £25 at 5.5 = 112.5 loss
Leaves £25 to hedge at current odds say 5.3 so £4.71 profit
16 ticks
Back £25 at 6.5 = £137.5 win
Lay £25 @ 4.9 = £97 loss
Leaves £40 to hedge at current odds say 4.7 so £8.51
It goes without saying the more ticks drop, the bigger potential profit, providing it reaches the odds you want.
Losses and there will be some, you have to have a plan to get “out” when I back with any stake then I know I how much I will potentally lose, but like the layer example I am willing to lay above the odds I backed at, if I feel it has gone against me, example and this was from Sunday,
Backed at 7.8 for £25, lay sitting at 5.0(already with the greened amount) it gets to 7.0, then goes to 8.0 it’s a 2 mile race which I am listening too and watching, the odds stay at 8.0, then it hits 10.0, 12.0, then back to 8.0, i have cancelled the lay at 5.0 and now I have placed it at 9.0 its matched so now I am looking a loss of
Back £25 @ 7.8 = £170
Lat £25 @ 9.0 = £200
Potential loss of -£30 should it go on and win, now I wait with my finger on the mouse ready to RED up should it reverse and come on strong I am at the original odds I wanted of 5.0, its soon at 6.0 so I place it at 5.0 for a potential all red book of £6, it never reaches 5.0 and is soon up to 20.0/30/80 and upwards, my loss on other horse were £0, and my potential loss of £30 averted due to its not winning, however it would have been reduced to £6, had it reached 5.0 and in my book £6 is easier to recover than £30.
Is it possible to make money like this, my answer is yes, providing you have a game plan,
Your selection ( and the reasoning for it)
Staking (start out small) don’t go above big amounts, I would say no more than £50, you may find getting matched on the way down a problem, with just a partial match, in which case its best to bail out with the hedge button.
Be prepared to take a loss, and to cut the loss further.
Keep you wits about you, its not for everyone I just find it easier than placing say £200 to back, then the £200 lay say 1 tick down and surprisingly less stressful.
Of course I may be speaking balls as I cant really put into words how I think at times
And paying the PC means I am in profit at the moment.
Good luck.
PS... IN-PLAY SOCCER a no no for me... repeat NO !!!
but over the US and Aussie races i managed to pull in £79.
I have a gut feeling that your statistic is correct. I'm not the sort to collect data to verify anything and always rely only on my own observations.
itto
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