ok, it's time to talk seriously about it

[Steven1976]

Ive never played poker so i wouldnt know.

The problem that i have with it all is how betfair matches money and shows it as matched money. Ive spoken on other forums about it. If you use one account and you match your own money it disappears. However if you used multiple accounts then it would show as matched money. So you can create what ever fancy pictures/graphs you like and wait for some decent money to oppose.

I actually, wrote to bf months back to see if it would be possible to do this with their blessing thinking that their market makers must have some special agreement. Therefore as I live in Asia i said i would liquiditate the Asian odds on the footy but i needed to self match my money to create an impression of a market to which they agreed.

I prefer BD way of matching money whereby when it hits the ladder and its matched it appears as matched when you match your own money. Id prefer everyone to be corrupt rather than just leaving room for a small few so we all play on the same level. Its a big edge.

[1/4 of a millionaire fund]

it cant be bad luck, because even if i placed 100 random trades, some of them are supposed to be positive, they cant be all 100 negative, right?

If you're gonna fold at the first sign of trouble I can easily see them all being negative. I'm guessing you're not playing when the markets are in full swing so you can't expect to scalp a few ticks when it's only bots playing.

[shadowninja]

Ok, guys, I think it's time to admit the truth.

Sorry, flok, we installed webcams in your room and watch your every move.

[d70ejk]

In so many ways, your opening post sounds so cynically conspiracy theorist. Except, I probably understand where you're coming from and sympathise with you. I started off with £2 stakes, then decided to up it to £10, £20, maybe more. If it went wrong, I sometimes upped my stakes to try and rescue a position. Sometimes it worked, sometimes it didn't. However, the moral is, I found I was able to make more winning trades with much lower stakes than with the bigger ones. It often feels to me that maybe as much as 90 % of money on the ladders might as well not be there.

So now, I've about done with pre-race trading. Instead I've started to try in-race trading despite the obvious delay in streaming. So now I do the minimum to be able to watch Betfair's stream (a £5 total stake) and find that almost every trade is a green one. Even when they're not, I'm confident I can make more than the perhaps 20p max I might lose for a bad trade.

[flok]

If you're gonna fold at the first sign of trouble I can easily see them all being negative. I'm guessing you're not playing when the markets are in full swing so you can't expect to scalp a few ticks when it's only bots playing.

i tried it too, i didnt take the loss and waited for while, it doesnt help.
the support-resistance against me is removed only after i take the loss.

right now i tried in the last race, the market had 500-800 euros per tick on both back and lay side.
i placed a 100 euros back, small stake just to try.
at the same time as my back was matched, on the lay side appeared 2000 euros at the same price i backed and 3000 1 tick higher, forcing me to lay 2 ticks higher than i backed.

d70ejk: i do the same, right now in-play i managed to go from -400 to -300 for today.
very annoying but nothing i cant retrieve in few days.
i repeat, i didnt open this post to complain because i lost, but because i wanted to hear your opinions about the strange things that happen in the markets.

i expected that many answers would have been like "it's all normal, it's your fault because you cant adapt to the markets etc". i'm not saying i'm better than others and i dont lose, but i want to see clearly.
when it's about money: "trust is nice, but no trust is better" we say in italy, and the technology can be used to screw us in ways that we dont even imagine

[Steven1976]

what odds are you playing at?

[flok]

min 1 max 20, depends on the type and lenght of the race

[marra]

Break the Bot (trigger)....You know what its doing now

[1/4 of a millionaire fund]

i tried it too, i didnt take the loss and waited for while, it doesnt help.
the support-resistance against me is removed only after i take the loss.

Well I guess you're not waiting long enough then

Remember the market maker/bots cannot hold prices indefinitely, other market forces will dictate where the price eventually finishes they don't have a crystal ball. They're also not looking over your shoulder and targeting you directly, it's just your methods that fall into their traps. Cross matching and the various bots are always going to give the impression you're being targeted if they're the only other main players in the market with you. I've been playing all afternoon with reasonable stakes and no ones front run or set up false resistance points against me, haven't seen chuck or baz complaining either. I'm guessing we're just not that active when you are.

Also remember no bot is ever going to be on the lookout for the £2 and £5's there's just no profit there once you start bringing in transaction fees etc plus £2s and £5's help form markets or the impression of a formed market to pull people in. You're just gonna have to adapt the times you enter the market and remember lots of the bots also lay false trails to pull you in early on.

[kawasaki]

lets imagine there is some superbot with big purse, who knows in advance where floks bet will land. he swoops floks bet and moves line against him, until flok cant stand pressure anymore and takes loss closing his trade. over and over all day long. but look, this bot, he dont play just against flok, he play against all market. not just betfair, against all industry [if lets say its mister betfair himself]. lets say he moved 5-10-whatever ticks off line [against flok, ofcourse]. now more and more other traders/gamblers see opportunity: ''whoaa look, this line is way too low/high, lets make some bets''. and then they start to eat it. and more bot went off line, more he is in deep shxx now.
imho no bot can go against value. maybe temporarily yes, some ticks here and there in thin market, i can imagine you can scare shit out of fake hearted dudes, but you must remember, that this pond is full of sharks, who knows exactly when lines are off line and by how much ticks, and they may happily eat all $$$ that mister bot would place off line.
soooo flok... dont you now think that you or #1. are scared too easy, and close your trade too early or #2. you just place your 100$ at value price and bot just happily takes your bets because its value for him, not because he wanna scare or scam someone with fake bets.
thats my twopence. dont take it as sarcasm or mockery, thats just way i like to speak. just friendly tap on shoulder

edit: uff, while i contemplated, some sharks was faster than me, as always. well...

[flok]

i totally agree about it, no bot can go against value.
but let's imagine that a horse is @2 on the bookies, @2,1 on betfair. naturally the bot will never push the odds under 2 or would be giving away free money, but it can push it around in a range of ticks that are not enough to provide clear value in back and not even in lay.

sometimes i even tried to wait until it's gone in-play... i think it's enough
in this case, the bot had pushed the price few ticks lower then the real one when i entered, to then let it go up before the start.
sure, it happens that i make mistakes and place my stake against the value, but not always... if i always did it, how could i keep trading in profit for 4 years?

this makes me think and i still have big doubts about the genuinity of the markets, especially when i see things that shouldnt happen technically, like my stakes that dont get matched even if they're in front of the queue or money that automatically appear/disappear every time i click. and i dont talk about random events here and there, i talk about something that happens regularly.

once again... this topic must not be a "flok vs all", i dont say that i lose, then the market is unfair.
in other topics there were guys that experienced exactly the same troubles and had the same suspects, maybe someone is more then me into it technically, and can explain it. a previous post by steven already helped me very much

[Nikol]

I will say it only once. The reason that you lose is only you!!! No one else. Your entry point is bad. And its bad a lot of times if it continues in this way. Every time look for the mistake 1st in you - not in the market. If you have noticed - if you make 1 mistake, than you start making more mistakes, not because of the market, but because you are angry! Change in the mood is change in the trading behavior, you are not playing by your own rules, your trying different, not tested things and logically you lose. Just try to play your game, not your bad mood's game. In 95% of the cases when I lose it's me - not the market. The other 5% is when I enter in a possition and some big cash hit the price 5-6 ticks in the oposite way...
1 more reason could be your internet which can be a very serious problem! But this is again you because you haven't looked for better i-net

[kawasaki]

me thinks ''money that automatically appear/disappear every time i click'' i seen when virtual bets was turned on

[flok]

i agree about not trading when angry or in bad mood or thinking about something else etc, 100% agree.
bad entry point can happen, sure, but, as i said already, if my entry points were always bad i wouldnt trade in profit for 4 years.
i dont say that i dont make mistakes, i make them often but not always.

i'll check this virtual bets thing in the menu of the toy, thanks.

edit: can someone kindly explain what exactly this "virtual bets" function in the toy shows?

[flok]

found it in the manual