Steep Learning Curve

[PC0845]

I nearly always back Over 2.5 Goals if odds are over 2.3 at kick off and I can watch the game on TV.

Hey Nigel, another final question, do you have a predefined exit time or tick offset you use to get out if the trade is going against you and there are no goals scored. Do you adhere to this or allow your instinct to intervene, dependant on the ebb and flow of the game ?

[jamiedavies02]

I tend to agree with nigel,on the basis of laying Blackpool for an accepted liability at the time of thier first goal.Allowing the possibility to lever your position should a second goal(as it did)go against you.My reasoning for this would have been that at 1-0 lots of opinions would have been for man-u comeback .Assuming you didnt get too heavy on the lay, the opportunity to get your stakes correct with a further lay after the second goal would have allowed you to get out relatively safe as the time remaining would have held the price for a decent amount of time.You would have also had the benefit of the half time period to do so.While no master i like to get involved with these low risk opportunities myself,just figure out your max liability ,put the lays in proportion and find a decent strike rate.

Please can you explain this abit clearer with regard the 2nd goal going against me and levering my position?

[nigelbleddfa]

When you initially layed Blackpool you must have been thinking that Man Utd would make some sort of comeback. I don't know what price you layed at but your liabilities could not have been very big unless you were using large stakes. So, if you felt that Man Utd were going to improve , you could have increased your lay bet,after the second Blackpool goal, at a still lower price, in the hope of such a revival. There was plenty of time left. As it happens, you would have made big profits if you had used "leverage".

This is quite a technical term and I prefer to use the term "chasing". If, for example, I see a game with a team like Arsenal playing and the score is 0 - 0 at half time, despite the fact that nobody can understand why they are not winning by at least three goals and they have hit the woodwork five times, I increase my Over 2.5 goal bet at the much greater odds available on the market at that time.

The example I have given immediately above is almost the opposite to what you might have done in the Blackpool game. In the one game, there was scope for increased laying, in my game there was scope for increased backing based on our judgements on how each game would turn out.

Neither would have involved huge liabilities. The layer in the Blackpool game would have taken advantage of the low lay price, I would take advantage of the greatly increased back price.

In one game with Arsenal I was so convinced that there would be goals that I stuck my entire bank on it at half time. God bless them ! They scored after 27 seconds and I was jumping up and down

( If they hadn't scored I would have jumped out taking a loss and retaining most of my bank .)

As said above, "leverage" is a technical term and used somewhat loosely in forums like this. Please see

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leverage_(finance)

and similar things.

My simplest explanation is :

Imagine you are in TESCO doing a big shop. You notice that fillet steak is on offer at £ 2 per pound, very good value, so you buy some for your dinner. You finish shopping in TESCO and pop into ASDA on the way home. Here, fillet steak is £1 per pound, very, very cheap. So, you buy some and stick it in your freezer. All makes perfect sense as long as you like steak

[kawasaki]

cheap ones usually are outdated

[jamiedavies02]

When you initially layed Blackpool you must have been thinking that Man Utd would make some sort of comeback. I don't know what price you layed at but your liabilities could not have been very big unless you were using large stakes. So, if you felt that Man Utd were going to improve , you could have increased your lay bet,after the second Blackpool goal, at a still lower price, in the hope of such a revival. There was plenty of time left. As it happens, you would have made big profits if you had used "leverage".

This is quite a technical term and I prefer to use the term "chasing". If, for example, I see a game with a team like Arsenal playing and the score is 0 - 0 at half time, despite the fact that nobody can understand why they are not winning by at least three goals and they have hit the woodwork five times, I increase my Over 2.5 goal bet at the much greater odds available on the market at that time.

The example I have given immediately above is almost the opposite to what you might have done in the Blackpool game. In the one game, there was scope for increased laying, in my game there was scope for increased backing based on our judgements on how each game would turn out.

Neither would have involved huge liabilities. The layer in the Blackpool game would have taken advantage of the low lay price, I would take advantage of the greatly increased back price.

In one game with Arsenal I was so convinced that there would be goals that I stuck my entire bank on it at half time. God bless them ! They scored after 27 seconds and I was jumping up and down

( If they hadn't scored I would have jumped out taking a loss and retaining most of my bank .)

As said above, "leverage" is a technical term and used somewhat loosely in forums like this. Please see

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leverage_(finance)

and similar things.

My simplest explanation is :

Imagine you are in TESCO doing a big shop. You notice that fillet steak is on offer at £ 2 per pound, very good value, so you buy some for your dinner. You finish shopping in TESCO and pop into ASDA on the way home. Here, fillet steak is £1 per pound, very, very cheap. So, you buy some and stick it in your freezer. All makes perfect sense as long as you like steak

So what your saying is, that despite going 2-0 behind, if I thought they would still come back and not lose then i should increase my lay at the reduced odds? Obvisously to a liability Im comfortable with. What kind of exit strategy would you employ should it continue to go against you?

[TRADER68]

Please can you explain this abit clearer with regard the 2nd goal going against me and levering my position?

I you start by setting an overall liability you are willing to accept,then its about setting stakes in the correct proportions.If for instance you start by laying a team for £2 @ 2 then when a second goal goes in you then lay £2 @ 1.5, you would then have layed £4 at average odds of 1.75.By laying a bigger figure at the lower odds(in proportion to your accepted overall liability)you would pull your average odds nearer the prices being traded.Allowing you to reduce your losses or in some cases the chance of a profit.
There is always the risk of a third goal going against you,but assuming you have set an overall liability you should be willing to accept this.Nigel has explained this perfectly well above.Leverage is usefull but not without risk.

[nigelbleddfa]

Hey Nigel, another final question, do you have a predefined exit time or tick offset you use to get out if the trade is going against you and there are no goals scored. Do you adhere to this or allow your instinct to intervene, dependant on the ebb and flow of the game ?

I've seen so many games and markets that I have a feel for them. I don't always get it right but it wouldn't be fun for me if I used tick offset etc. The Blackpool v Man Utd game last night showed how games can change in an instant. I am sometimes prepared to allow my losses to increase in one game if I am making a profit in a different game simultaneously. I know what my exit times are but it's very difficult to explain them to anybody else

Ebb and flow, I think.

[nigelbleddfa]

So what your saying is, that despite going 2-0 behind, if I thought they would still come back and not lose then i should increase my lay at the reduced odds? Obvisously to a liability Im comfortable with. What kind of exit strategy would you employ should it continue to go against you?

It depends entirely on your own judgement. There is not a single person on this forum who would not have been absolutely delighted to lay Blackpool given the final outcome. What I am saying is that for a small extra liability you could have gained a large profit. Of course, if Blackpool had gone on to win 6 - 0 you would have ended up losing but, if you had managed your stakes properly, you wouldn't have lost too much .

There was a stage in the game where I was convinced that Blackpool were going to win and was quite enjoying Man Utd's discomfort. The substitutions changed everything. Laying Blackpool was a perfectly reasonable thing to do given Man Utd's record this year. I was too concerned about another game at the time and just sat back and enjoyed the game on TV.

[jamiedavies02]

Wednesday 26th January

Soccer / Birmingham v West Ham : Over/Under 2.5 goals 26-Jan-11 19:45 26-Jan-11 21:23 0.23
Soccer / Birmingham v West Ham : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 26-Jan-11 19:45 26-Jan-11 21:04 1.04

My strategy again was to nick a few ticks on the under 1.5 market. After 12 minutes play and the game still 0-0 I greened up for a profit of 20% of my stake. After West Hams first goal I entered the Under 2.5 market at its peak and nicked a couple of ticks for a little extra profit.

Lesson Learned: Discipline was key and I didnt get greedy. Its going to be a long way to riches but slow and steady wins the race. Im still getting a feel for various markets and although the profit is only small the hardwork will (hopefully) pay of in time.

After the game I set up a some targets on a spreadsheet. I know targets can be frowned upon on these boards but I feel they can help me keep discipline. I hope to win 2% of my bank a day, which started at £50. The spreadsheet I created shows that after 100 trading sessions my bank COULD be £350+. I feel this will help me not to get to far ahead of myself and become to greedy. I am all too aware that there will be losing days/ runs that I have not accounted for in my targets, they are just there as a guide of what good trading decisions and discipline can help me acheive. It will also help me record profit and loss of each session

[jamiedavies02]

Ive started a new blog, contiues where my thread in the Diaries and Challenges thread left off:

http://diaryofanewbiesportstrader.blogspot.com/