Late goals

[Scalper]

I've been reading Psychoff's $100,000 blog recently and while he doesn't seem to keen to give any of his strategies away, from looking at the screenshots he's posted he seems to have great success in laying the correct score late in games when there's only a goal in it.

I tried something similar today but instead of laying the correct score I laid Juventus in the last 10 minutes while they were only 1-0 at odds of 1.10, Bologna scored late in the game to make it 1-1 and that's how the game finished.

It's something worth doing some more research into to see if it's possible to narrow down to matches to get involved in.

[The Joker]

worth a look!

what do the stats say on late goals / comebacks??

I would imagine where there is alot at stake league position / survival!
Silverware!
Champions league etc. there may be some good opportunities with a high likely hood. the key will be to find those where the lazy over paid pre-madonna's that are footballers, are motivated enough to play out of there skins for the last 10-5 mins / stoppage time of the game !!
Also I suppose when there is only a goal in it then there is always the possibility of a point if the side thats down push themselves harder

[Scalper]

I'll have a look in the week and see if anything stands out, it might just be a case of watching the game to see if any or both sides are pushing for the winner late on.

For example there have been 3 injury time goals in the 7 games Chelsea have been involved in this season when they've either been level or a goal behind.

[Timstertoo]

The way I understood it is that they lay the current score in injury time if there's one team clearly pushing for another goal.

[Scumbag trader]

i have a stat that relates to this, don't know if it is of any use:

football and premier league from 97 to 09 -

percentage of goals scored in the 40-45 min 3.2 %

Percentage of goals scoed in the 85-90 min 5.5 %

[The Joker]

Ah yes!

The way I understood it is that they lay the current score in injury time if there's one team clearly pushing for another goal.

I thought I'd read that before was it you that posted it Timstertoo??

would be nice to find a similar system with a high strike rate though prolly worse odds!

[The Joker]

i have a stat that relates to this, don't know if it is of any use:

football and premier league from 97 to 09 -

percentage of goals scored in the 40-45 min 3.2 %

Percentage of goals scoed in the 85-90 min 5.5 %

Hmm 5.5% Guess this is gonna have to come down to an opinion on how the game is proceedig/has been played ? rather that just stats!
bit like your in running race reading eh ST!

[Timstertoo]

Hmm 5.5% Guess this is gonna have to come down to an opinion on how the game is proceedig/has been played ? rather that just stats!
bit like your in running race reading eh ST!

This percentage doesn't tell us anything.

What we need to know is how often a goal is scored in that time.

It could be 1 in 200 matches as far as we know, the only thing we know that if goals are scored 5,5% of them are done in that time.

[The Joker]

Ahaa

This percentage doesn't tell us anything.

What we need to know is how often a goal is scored in that time.

It could be 1 in 200 matches as far as we know, the only thing we know that if goals are scored 5,5% of them are done in that time.

yes I see, I suppose that 5.5% could have been scored between 2001 and 2003 and you'd be none the wiser?!
wonder if say this may work better in different parts of the season? though like I said I'd still need a good feel for the game to lump in on it! even though its low odds I still hate to lose! RED BAD - GREEN GOOD!!!!!

[Scumbag trader]

if you want another idea on laying at low odds, then what about laying the leading team at ht. Sunderland today were 1.07 at one point at a sp of 1.75 or around that area. This means that sunderland had around 60% chance of winning the match before kick off assuming the market was correct. At a price of 1.07 before ht, is that not worth a lay, considering that only 35% of teams that lead in the first half continue to win the game if there implied chance of winning is 60% before kick off.

[The Joker]

if you want another idea on laying at low odds, then what about laying the leading team at ht. Sunderland today were 1.07 at one point at a sp of 1.75 or around that area. This means that sunderland had around 60% chance of winning the match before kick off assuming the market was correct. At a price of 1.07 before ht, is that not worth a lay, considering that only 35% of teams that lead in the first half continue to win the game if there implied chance of winning is 60% before kick off.

Hmmm not a bad one there plus I suppose you'd only have needed wolves to push a few times at the start of the second half to puch the price out again!

[Timstertoo]

if you want another idea on laying at low odds, then what about laying the leading team at ht. Sunderland today were 1.07 at one point at a sp of 1.75 or around that area. This means that sunderland had around 60% chance of winning the match before kick off assuming the market was correct. At a price of 1.07 before ht, is that not worth a lay, considering that only 35% of teams that lead in the first half continue to win the game if there implied chance of winning is 60% before kick off.

I like this, will have to look into it.

There are so many different angles and bets you can fire on football with all the different markets it's driving me bonkers at the moment.

The good thing about it though is that with as many variables as that edges should appear every now and again and not as clear cut that a bot can close them mechanically. So here's me hoping that if I put the time in and keep grafting I'll be able to make some nice money of it in the future.

[Scumbag trader]

football, variables

I wish, thats why it's so fecking hard to find value.

[geggs1]

To make it pay, the price would have to be alot lower then 1.10 . .
1.04 1.03 maybe. . .

[Emkayracing]

The bottom line is to watch the game that you are trading.

I wouldn't stick a lay bet into a market without first deciding that the favs could be vulnerable - what would be the point?

Someone in the ST forum used to lay the draw (When it was a draw) at 80 mins, didn't they?

To me this type of approach is gambling disguised as trading, it's not reacting to what is happening but sticking money on the line in the hope that something happens.