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Thread: DVWooly Diary - trading horses pre race

  1. #501
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    finlly given up for good on this betfair lark.

    I have moved to FX trading, find it easier and its more scalable.

    Good luck to those on betfair, i spent 10 enjoyable years on there, lost money but enjoyed it.

    Hopefully i'll do better ££££ wise on FX.

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    Quote Originally Posted by dvwooly View Post
    finlly given up for good on this betfair lark.

    I have moved to FX trading, find it easier and its more scalable.

    Good luck to those on betfair, i spent 10 enjoyable years on there, lost money but enjoyed it.

    Hopefully i'll do better ££££ wise on FX.
    hi,

    I am also looking at fx trading along with betfair.. can u please help me with what broker u doing fx and which pair .. also what are the timings for FX in here in UK ? I knw many markets run over 24 hrs

    Hoping for a reply...

    Thanks

  3. #503
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    day starts at 10pm

    nothing really happens until 8am onwards

    Id recommend a longer term view

    I use etx capital as i spread bet

    you need over £1000 to trade 50p a pip

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    Quote Originally Posted by dvwooly View Post
    day starts at 10pm

    nothing really happens until 8am onwards

    Id recommend a longer term view

    I use etx capital as i spread bet

    you need over £1000 to trade 50p a pip
    thanks for the reply... so 10 pm London time it starts.. and next morning 8 am some movements happen is it?

    which pair u generally trade which has better movement and which method u use ?

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    Quote Originally Posted by custard View Post
    I think the reality is that by settling for very small profits we run the risk of deluding ourselves that we have "cracked it". The ratio of amount won to amount lost on individual bets must be greater than one if a profit is to be achieved. So, for example, we stake £10 on five individual bets and are chuffed when we we win four lots of £2, then we blow a tenner when the fifth bet goes against us. The lower the ticks, or percentage, we take, the greater number of winning bets we need to break even let alone make a profit.

    I have studied trading for at least seven years and have been drawn to the conclusion that it can only be successful if a sensible "mechanical" approach is used in placing bets and that this is coupled with an "edge". This may be specialist, or inside, knowledge. This in turn could be an ability to appraise markets and see that the odds available are incorrect. By this I mean markets are often influenced by supporters/punters backing their own favourites more in hope than expectation. This means that the probable result is not directly related to the odds suggested by the market. Such things happen in football matches involving the most popular Premier League teams and the English national team, in particular. I can still not believe my luck that, many years ago, Holland were 7/2 against to beat England at Wembley but were thrashed out of sight, as I expected, primarily by a guy called Cruyff.

    Leaving aside the specific football examples given above, I believe that a knowledge of form is now essential to make a profit in horse racing. I don't mean that one needs to know details of individual horses but simply to appreciate that the bigger stables. Pipe, Henderson, King, Hobbs, etc. have periods of the year when they are in and out of form. Cheltenham will be with us soon and it is not rocket science to be able to predict that the biggest trainers, with the best jockeys, the most expensive horses and the richest owners will be more successful than the "little kids".

    There are traders who are successful for prolonged periods. They may use large stakes, win and gain confidence and stride on. Sadly, even these can and do "come a cropper". Most people would say that casinos always make money, the odds are balanced in their favour, and simple mathematics dictates that they will be cash cows for ever and ever. How is it then that I know of a city in the South West of England where two casinos "went bust" in a six month period ? The answer is luck. It swung against the casinos despite the predictions that statisticians would have made confidently.

    I believe that a trader must have a thorough knowledge of the exchange, must know how the markets work, know how to use his software properly, have an "edge" and, ultimately, he must have luck.

    My involvement in trading is fast drawing to an end. Definitely, in under two years, I will no longer be in the UK and no more Betfair for me. It would be nice to think that I had been successful and made loads of money. I haven't. I content myself by knowing that I have thoroughly enjoyed my trading/gambling and have been able to care for my family without risking silly sums of money. My countless hours of studying markets, coming up with ideas for bots, and working really hard have been fun.

    Luck is all important. As an example, I backed Over 2.5 goals at the start of the Sheffield Utd v Tottenham game. I backed it again at half time at much bigger odds in the hope that I could recover my initial stake/cut losses if an early goal was scored. It wasn't. Then, when a goal was eventually scored, and with time running out, I had the opportunity to take a small loss and get out. I clicked my mouse to take a loss and, after about a second, the market was suspended and I made a big profit instead. I could kid myself that my great trading skills had enabled me to make a pile of money when others would have failed. The truth, of course, was that I was unbelievably lucky. Pure luck, nothing else.

    I hope that you are all lucky. Unfortunately, this cannot be the case as, on Betfair, for every winner there is an equivalent loser.
    Hi Custard! That is a very interesting post, and yes for some reason some folk are lucky than others it mayb genetic not sure, also sorry to here you will be leaving soon you are a very knowledgeable person.

    Good Luck! Paul.

  6. #506
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    Give up on Betfair lads, forex is where it is at.

    Happy to discuss this further

  7. #507
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    Quote Originally Posted by dvwooly View Post
    Give up on Betfair lads, forex is where it is at.

    Happy to discuss this further
    Good Luck! With this Dvwooly, i have started with this BF trading now so will keep it up, i treat as a hobby and mainly the challenge, i supose i can read form fairly well which helps abit i feel. Class, wth and going plus trainers stats mayb the most important.

  8. #508
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    I think anyone who joins betfair now is about 5 years too late

    Seriously, look into forex. You only need £500 and its not as complicated as you think. Contact me if you wish to discuss. I banked £450 last week and it should have been more like £4500 but i was at work and could only trade 1 market at a time.

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    Quote Originally Posted by dvwooly View Post
    I think anyone who joins betfair now is about 5 years too late

    Seriously, look into forex. You only need £500 and its not as complicated as you think. Contact me if you wish to discuss. I banked £450 last week and it should have been more like £4500 but i was at work and could only trade 1 market at a time.
    Thanks for the offer! and you seem a very truthful guy by all you past posts giving exact figures, i like that and admitting the loses, but i think you sould give it aleast 1 mth or not more and trade each day.

    Here are my basic lay figs from HRB for 1 year, also i can get them down to about 3% loses with further form reading, which i cant do with the system builder i can only refine them so far with that, but it aids the location of them and orders them also so i can sift through them easier.

    Bets Wins Win% P/L (SP) Places Place% BF Places BF Place% P/L (BFSP) LAY (BFSP)
    4591 359 7.82% -2455.55 1023 22.28% 1073 0% -1976.6715 1646.37

    All the best, Paul.

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    I wasn't great at the discipline side, I used to get bored at making £5 a race and would let them go in running and then blow up.

    I'm quite mechanical in the way I think so need a step by step process.

    So if ABCD happens I do x or I do y. Could never pin Betfair trading down to that.

    Forex however I have pinned it down to that and I am having some success and it feels more like a business so I don't get bored. Trading on horses just felt like a game/gambling.

    Forex is pretty simple and there are no in plays or dreaded suspended signs ..... Not yet at least, although I wasn't trading when the Swiss franc did its little number and wiped out a few

  12. #511
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    Quote Originally Posted by dvwooly View Post
    I wasn't great at the discipline side, I used to get bored at making £5 a race and would let them go in running and then blow up.

    I'm quite mechanical in the way I think so need a step by step process.

    So if ABCD happens I do x or I do y. Could never pin Betfair trading down to that.

    Forex however I have pinned it down to that and I am having some success and it feels more like a business so I don't get bored. Trading on horses just felt like a game/gambling.

    Forex is pretty simple and there are no in plays or dreaded suspended signs ..... Not yet at least, although I wasn't trading when the Swiss franc did its little number and wiped out a few
    Yep I suppose any trading is a gamble to an extent, mine is more mechanical in away also. I follow proven win systems that have worked well over say 6 years or more, and the lay method I follow even shows a good profit net, but i look for even better prices in-running.

    Still Good Luck! with yours i hope you do well, you seem more dedicated now. The hours I have spend on systems with HRB and Proform but seem to have plotted some good ones as I have progressed along.

    I was a pro years ago on horses and sports betting, but it was hard in the end. I use to back front running sprinters of low wths which is all changed now, and with sports I did well with Tiger, Hendry and Golf place accum bets with Multisports.

  13. #512
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    Just to echo the thoughts above. Anyone starting out would be well advised to dismiss the idea of pre-race trading on Betfair and look at spread trading instead.

    Your name looks familiar sootywooty, are/were you a member of a somewhat pretentious racing forum whereby you gained access to an inner scrotum area?
    I often use big words that I don't fully understand in an effort to make myself sound more photosynthesis.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Boo View Post
    Just to echo the thoughts above. Anyone starting out would be well advised to dismiss the idea of pre-race trading on Betfair and look at spread trading instead.

    Your name looks familiar sootywooty, are/were you a member of a somewhat pretentious racing forum whereby you gained access to an inner scrotum area?
    Lol! Yes i was i got banned for decrying vdw it was obvious he was just made up to sell books and the papers, i suppose all punters would like 85% plus winners but is never going to happen are you a member their btw!

    All the best, Paul.

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    Wait until major news is released. FX will be like the final furlong of a short race. And when you bail out it'll be for a far worse price than you wanted, assuming it didn't smash through your stop by 100 pips (and yes, you will owe ETX those 100 pips).

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  17. #515
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    Quote Originally Posted by shadowninja View Post
    Wait until major news is released. FX will be like the final furlong of a short race. And when you bail out it'll be for a far worse price than you wanted, assuming it didn't smash through your stop by 100 pips (and yes, you will owe ETX those 100 pips).
    Yep i had ago on the footies quite a few years back, i came out level after one mth so did not bother, i also tried spread betting on the golf and finished about 300 up after 4 mths, but was well up at one time, but was hit with a bad two weeks so i quite it because it can get very volatile.

    With this i just stick to a level stake for the wins, and never take a lay price of more than 6/1 no matter what the percentages show, and it is important to use large sample sizes also unless very extreme factors against i find.

  18. #516
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    Quote Originally Posted by sootywooty View Post
    Lol! Yes i was i got banned for decrying vdw it was obvious he was just made up to sell books and the papers, i suppose all punters would like 85% plus winners but is never going to happen are you a member their btw!

    All the best, Paul.
    I pop in occasionally to give my bullshit detector a good workout.

    VDW has always divided opinion but it's well over thirty years old now and I'm yet to see anyone replicate the claimed strike rate over a sustained period.
    I often use big words that I don't fully understand in an effort to make myself sound more photosynthesis.

  19. #517
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    Quote Originally Posted by Boo View Post
    I pop in occasionally to give my bullshit detector a good workout.

    VDW has always divided opinion but it's well over thirty years old now and I'm yet to see anyone replicate the claimed strike rate over a sustained period.
    Yep in the old'n days it was alot easier to spot improving horses than now, plus the trainers were very clever placing their horses and training them better also i feel. I had many winners under 8 stone and on Chester was great with low drawn sprinters esp.

    One of my friends was addicted to vdw, i use to warn him but in the end he must of lost loads. I think if he was real TP would of certainly checked him out, who could not resist as he claimed on his lists it was unsual for one to lose, and his main method hit well into the high 80s S/R at all manner of prices

    So even if he did write in and sometimes got very tacit when TP probed him abit as many have said, i think that speaks volumes myself.

    I see on the forum now BobaJobber his main protagonist has upset a few on Motto vdw thread.

    All the best, Paul.

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    Dvwooly. I starting out pre race myself. It's quite fascinating. I'd be interested to hear more about the forex trading. What resources are you Using to learn, and have yo found the skills and psychology gained from sports trading a benefit?

  21. #519
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    The jedi master returns

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    Quote Originally Posted by dvwooly View Post
    The jedi master returns
    I created the account specifically to chat with you.. been trading since some time .. but need to know how you making it out in forex ??
    is it any good ? less headache ?

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