DVWooly Diary - trading horses pre race

[kawasaki]

[dvwooly]

How are the markets these days?

I had a dabble today, no graphs just my interpretation of the price action .... Seemed to be ok

[dvwooly]

£250 bank ........... never went in running

todays results below, pretty happy with them.



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Horse Racing: £31.09 Total P&L: £31.09

Horse Racing Showing 1 - 5 of 5 markets
Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Horse Racing / Dund 23rd Jan : 1m4f Hcap 23-Jan-15 21:05 23-Jan-15 21:08 4.63
Horse Racing / Dund 23rd Jan : 1m2f Hcap 23-Jan-15 20:35 23-Jan-15 20:45 13.16
Horse Racing / Dund 23rd Jan : 1m Hcap 23-Jan-15 20:05 23-Jan-15 20:08 4.64
Horse Racing / Dund 23rd Jan : 1m Mdn 23-Jan-15 19:35 23-Jan-15 19:39 7.05
Horse Racing / Dund 23rd Jan : 7f Hcap 23-Jan-15 19:05 23-Jan-15 19:12 1.61

[dvwooly]

one loss (recoverred from-£20) and no in play

25-Jan-2015 16:27

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Horse Racing: £59.80 Total P&L: £59.80

Horse Racing Showing 1 - 12 of 12 markets
Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Horse Racing / Leop 25th Jan : 2m INHF 25-Jan-15 16:20 25-Jan-15 16:25 9.91
Horse Racing / Sedge 25th Jan : 2m1f Nov Hcap Hrd 25-Jan-15 16:05 25-Jan-15 16:11 1.69
Horse Racing / Sedge 25th Jan : 2m4f Hcap Chs 25-Jan-15 15:35 25-Jan-15 15:41 3.97
Horse Racing / Leop 25th Jan : 2m4f Grd2 Nov Hrd 25-Jan-15 15:15 25-Jan-15 15:23 5.04
Horse Racing / Sedge 25th Jan : 2m1f Hcap Hrd 25-Jan-15 15:00 25-Jan-15 15:05 12.41
Horse Racing / Leop 25th Jan : 2m Grd1 Hrd 25-Jan-15 14:45 25-Jan-15 14:50 4.96
Horse Racing / Sedge 25th Jan : 3m3f Nov Hcap Chs 25-Jan-15 14:25 25-Jan-15 14:34 -2.81
Horse Racing / Leop 25th Jan : 2m1f Hcap Chs 25-Jan-15 14:10 25-Jan-15 14:15 7.65
Horse Racing / Sedge 25th Jan : 2m4f Hcap Hrd 25-Jan-15 13:55 25-Jan-15 14:01 1.52
Horse Racing / Leop 25th Jan : 2m1f Grd1 Nov Chs 25-Jan-15 13:40 25-Jan-15 13:45 2.22
Horse Racing / Sedge 25th Jan : 2m4f Nov Hrd 25-Jan-15 13:25 25-Jan-15 13:31 5.17
Horse Racing / Leop 25th Jan : 2m Mdn Hrd 25-Jan-15 13:10 25-Jan-15 13:27 8.07

[seanmould14]

well done mate, you're at the level I've set my next goal at so I'm watching with interest. From what you've mentioned I take it this is from scalping? And only a £250 bank is very encouraging, hope you keep going as you are.

What stakes are you using to get these results?

[dvwooly]

I'm scalping a few ticks here and there but today I was looking after my daughter while the wife was out so couldn't give it 100% focus.

I'm very happy to make £5 a race average

My bank is up to £340 now. I do increase my stakes as the bank grows so I don't get that phobia later on when I start to see £5 a tick

[dvwooly]

What stakes are you using to get these results?

Hard to answer but I'm placing my initial backs with £100 and laying £20 stakes.

I like to back first .... Always liked to do that unless it's odds on then I lay first

I get nervous backing £100 at say 7.0 so rarely get involved in anything other than the first two in the betting.

When the bank grows I'll get over that fear

[dvwooly]

Traded the last 3 tonight

+10
+9
-26!!!!!

The last one was ridiculous, trading with a 5 month old in my arms .... Lesson learnt.... Know when to stop

Happy that my individual wins when I focus are increasing.

Hope I can consistently reach the £20 a race mark by end of February/march

[seanmould14]

Haha, i know exactly what you mean, i used to trade downstairs in my Conservatory with 2 young kids around, leading to a lack of concentration and lost banks. I've also lost money watching the kids whilst my wife goes out.

I take full responsibility so I have now, since Tuesday moved to a makeshift office in my bedroom and will no longer trade if i'm watching the kids.

Although its early to say, i think these 2 rules have improved my concentration, leading to better results.

I'm sure you'll reach your target judging by your results, it just seems that 1 costly loss that gets in the way.

[custard]

I think the reality is that by settling for very small profits we run the risk of deluding ourselves that we have "cracked it". The ratio of amount won to amount lost on individual bets must be greater than one if a profit is to be achieved. So, for example, we stake £10 on five individual bets and are chuffed when we we win four lots of £2, then we blow a tenner when the fifth bet goes against us. The lower the ticks, or percentage, we take, the greater number of winning bets we need to break even let alone make a profit.

I have studied trading for at least seven years and have been drawn to the conclusion that it can only be successful if a sensible "mechanical" approach is used in placing bets and that this is coupled with an "edge". This may be specialist, or inside, knowledge. This in turn could be an ability to appraise markets and see that the odds available are incorrect. By this I mean markets are often influenced by supporters/punters backing their own favourites more in hope than expectation. This means that the probable result is not directly related to the odds suggested by the market. Such things happen in football matches involving the most popular Premier League teams and the English national team, in particular. I can still not believe my luck that, many years ago, Holland were 7/2 against to beat England at Wembley but were thrashed out of sight, as I expected, primarily by a guy called Cruyff.

Leaving aside the specific football examples given above, I believe that a knowledge of form is now essential to make a profit in horse racing. I don't mean that one needs to know details of individual horses but simply to appreciate that the bigger stables. Pipe, Henderson, King, Hobbs, etc. have periods of the year when they are in and out of form. Cheltenham will be with us soon and it is not rocket science to be able to predict that the biggest trainers, with the best jockeys, the most expensive horses and the richest owners will be more successful than the "little kids".

There are traders who are successful for prolonged periods. They may use large stakes, win and gain confidence and stride on. Sadly, even these can and do "come a cropper". Most people would say that casinos always make money, the odds are balanced in their favour, and simple mathematics dictates that they will be cash cows for ever and ever. How is it then that I know of a city in the South West of England where two casinos "went bust" in a six month period ? The answer is luck. It swung against the casinos despite the predictions that statisticians would have made confidently.

I believe that a trader must have a thorough knowledge of the exchange, must know how the markets work, know how to use his software properly, have an "edge" and, ultimately, he must have luck.

My involvement in trading is fast drawing to an end. Definitely, in under two years, I will no longer be in the UK and no more Betfair for me. It would be nice to think that I had been successful and made loads of money. I haven't. I content myself by knowing that I have thoroughly enjoyed my trading/gambling and have been able to care for my family without risking silly sums of money. My countless hours of studying markets, coming up with ideas for bots, and working really hard have been fun.

Luck is all important. As an example, I backed Over 2.5 goals at the start of the Sheffield Utd v Tottenham game. I backed it again at half time at much bigger odds in the hope that I could recover my initial stake/cut losses if an early goal was scored. It wasn't. Then, when a goal was eventually scored, and with time running out, I had the opportunity to take a small loss and get out. I clicked my mouse to take a loss and, after about a second, the market was suspended and I made a big profit instead. I could kid myself that my great trading skills had enabled me to make a pile of money when others would have failed. The truth, of course, was that I was unbelievably lucky. Pure luck, nothing else.

I hope that you are all lucky. Unfortunately, this cannot be the case as, on Betfair, for every winner there is an equivalent loser.

[kawasaki]

or maybe as some old rumours says, for every winner there are 99 losers

[dvwooly]

Trading is luck and probabilities. people try to find the holy grail in belief a system will work and then they fail.

[dvwooly]

only had 3 races today ..... middle one was distracted and did well to recover an early £12 loss

30-Jan-2015 21:39

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Horse Racing: £8.14 Total P&L: £8.14

Horse Racing Showing 1 - 3 of 3 markets
Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Horse Racing / Dund 30th Jan : 1m4f Hcap 30-Jan-15 21:05 30-Jan-15 21:10 5.91
Horse Racing / Dund 30th Jan : 1m2f Stks 30-Jan-15 20:35 30-Jan-15 20:38 0.26
Horse Racing / Dund 30th Jan : 1m Hcap 30-Jan-15 20:05 30-Jan-15 20:10 1.97

[dvwooly]

Was doing well £40 from 9 markets after trading out of some poor positions ..... then the wife started pestering me. Stopped after 4 consecutive losses

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Horse Racing: £25.81 Total P&L: £25.81

[dvwooly]

got a few markets in ......

01-Feb-2015 16:48

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Horse Racing: £51.40 Total P&L: £51.40

Horse Racing Showing 1 - 13 of 13 markets
Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Horse Racing / Muss 1st Feb : 3m Hcap Hrd 01-Feb-15 16:30 01-Feb-15 16:36 4.84
Horse Racing / ChelmC 1st Feb : 1m Hcap 01-Feb-15 16:20 01-Feb-15 16:29 -5.24
Horse Racing / Punch 1st Feb : 3m4f Hcap Chs 01-Feb-15 16:10 01-Feb-15 16:21 1.20
Horse Racing / Muss 1st Feb : 3m3f Hunt Chs 01-Feb-15 16:00 01-Feb-15 16:07 3.57
Horse Racing / ChelmC 1st Feb : 1m5f Hcap 01-Feb-15 15:50 01-Feb-15 15:57 3.37
Horse Racing / Punch 1st Feb : 2m Grd2 Chs 01-Feb-15 15:40 01-Feb-15 15:46 6.49
Horse Racing / Punch 1st Feb : 3m Hcap Hrd 01-Feb-15 15:10 01-Feb-15 15:25 0.15
Horse Racing / Muss 1st Feb : 2m Listed Hcap Hrd 01-Feb-15 15:00 01-Feb-15 15:05 9.94
Horse Racing / ChelmC 1st Feb : 5f Hcap 01-Feb-15 14:50 01-Feb-15 14:54 1.17
Horse Racing / Punch 1st Feb : 2m Listed Nov Hrd 01-Feb-15 14:40 01-Feb-15 14:46 7.81
Horse Racing / Muss 1st Feb : 2m4f Nov Chs 01-Feb-15 14:30 01-Feb-15 14:35 8.35
Horse Racing / ChelmC 1st Feb : 1m Hcap 01-Feb-15 14:20 01-Feb-15 14:24 3.75
Horse Racing / Punch 1st Feb : 2m4f Mdn Hrd 01-Feb-15 14:10 01-Feb-15 14:18 6.00
Profit and Loss is shown net of commission.
All times are UKT
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unless otherwise stated.

[dvwooly]

back on the tennis ......... in 2008 i made £17,000 in 2 months only to lose £4500 in one bet on Dimitry Tursunov (was serving for the match one set up) and then £2500 in the next ..... stoppped betting on it since then. Ive made teh decision to get back into as i cant trade horses due to my day job.

02-Feb-2015 22:36

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Tennis: £55.11 Total P&L: £55.11

Tennis Showing 1 - 1 of 1 markets
Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Tennis / G Melzer v Carballes Baena : Match Odds 02-Feb-15 19:44 02-Feb-15 22:32 55.11

[seanmould14]

Thats impressive mate, i haven't a clue how to trade tennis, but i'm looking to try different sports. Where do you suggest i start?

[dvwooly]

I believe in tennis trading you need to either

1. Be able to watch the match and read who is playing well

Or

2. Have knowledge about the game and form a view on who is going to win

Problem with tennis unlike racing is that it is similar to football, the odds can suddenly go 50 ticks away from you without a chance of getting out.

When I won all that money I was doing number 2 and laying off after the first set if I was correct.

Don't get in too early and don't take miserly odds .... I've backing someone who is at 40-0 on the serve.

With tennis you can easily scale up, £1000 stakes are nothing 0n matches and £50,000 is nothing on big tournaments

The other good sport for volume and liquidity is cricket ....ll i used to be a pro cricketer but don't bet on it as I have a biased view most of the time

[dvwooly]

lost my nerve today in the tennis ............

turned two £30 greens into less htan £10 each by trying to squeeze extra and making some ridiculous bets
didnt hold out twice for two massive wins which both would have been £100+

i'll get there soon ......+£80 instead of +£120 by playing around in tie breaks

03-Feb-2015 22:16

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Tennis: £80.64 Total P&L: £80.64

Tennis Showing 1 - 7 of 7 markets
Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
Tennis / Menendez-Maceiras v P Lorenzi : Match Odds 03-Feb-15 19:44 03-Feb-15 22:11 8.05
Tennis / Basilashvili v Paire : Match Odds 03-Feb-15 20:20 03-Feb-15 22:04 2.99
Tennis / G Escobar v Jarry : Match Odds 03-Feb-15 18:54 03-Feb-15 20:59 25.07
Tennis / R Olivo v Donskoy : Match Odds 03-Feb-15 17:02 03-Feb-15 19:29 7.63
Tennis / Souza v Falla : Match Odds 03-Feb-15 16:05 03-Feb-15 18:39 8.40
Tennis / Dzumhur v Berrer : Match Odds 03-Feb-15 13:48 03-Feb-15 15:40 13.35
Tennis / Marchenko v Troicki : Match Odds 03-Feb-15 10:54 03-Feb-15 13:45 15.15

[Caan Berry]

Profits profit