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    Default DVWooly Diary - trading horses pre race

    After my annual spring/summer break from betfair I'm back for the winter to have a go at some horse racing trading. I've had some moderate success previously but always seem to bust myself letting one go in running. I'm hoping to stop this bad habit this time round.

    I will be ditching the inrunning 1 & 2 tick in running bets and focussing on pre race. I will be laying then backing to hopefully get a 0.5% bank green screen per market.

    I was a big fan of the graphs using quant and ninja trader to set up some weird and wonderful set ups. It takes to long and I find it isnt helpful with horses (was with the dogs). I will stick to AGT graphs and probably use 2 of them to confirm my entry point. For the position trading Profit taking Exit point will be around1 minute before off or take a loss at 10 secs before the off.

    I will be starting of using my approach with 1 tick offset as I gain confidence that my initial findings work in real time when position trading.


    My aim is to finish every day/week/month with no loss, my head in the clouds aim is 5% per day upto £300 as I realise some methods can't be scaled up. I do think the position trading angle can be.

    I will be trading infrequently, I'm fortunate to have a good 9-5 job so will do evenings and weekends and some trading daily when I'm off in the run up to Xmas.

    Hope you enjoy the ride and I'll try to answer all questions and hopefully engage in some constructive discussions about trading and making some money .... I'm also open to any suggestions or crticisms. If I go bust I'll let you know!

    I loaded in £70 on Tuesday, went back to my old style, lost 130 in one in running bet!! .... Managed to survive the day and get back to £100. yesterday I was well on course with my new 1 tick approach. Bank is now £126. Will post up the bets soon when I get a chance.

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    2 things,

    great news on the daughter .

    Give us a video for in running fun!

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    24/10/2012

    this is me using £100 and my proper method, lost 2 hours as i had to go shopping with the wife.

    Greyhound Racing: £0.14 | Horse Racing: £25.86 Total P&L: £26.00

    Horse Racing Showing 1 - 19 of 19 markets
    Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
    Horse Racing / Kemp 24th Oct : 1m Hcap 24-Oct-12 21:20 24-Oct-12 21:24 2.42
    Horse Racing / Kemp 24th Oct : 7f Hcap 24-Oct-12 20:50 24-Oct-12 20:56 2.33
    Horse Racing / Kemp 24th Oct : 7f Class Stks 24-Oct-12 20:20 24-Oct-12 20:22 1.00
    Horse Racing / Kemp 24th Oct : 1m Nursery 24-Oct-12 19:50 24-Oct-12 19:54 1.99
    Horse Racing / Kemp 24th Oct : 1m Mdn Stks 24-Oct-12 19:20 24-Oct-12 19:25 2.29
    Horse Racing / Kemp 24th Oct : 1m Mdn Stks 24-Oct-12 18:50 24-Oct-12 18:54 1.78
    Horse Racing / Kemp 24th Oct : 6f Mdn Stks 24-Oct-12 18:20 24-Oct-12 18:23 0.53
    Horse Racing / Kemp 24th Oct : 1m2f Hcap 24-Oct-12 17:50 24-Oct-12 17:54 0.39
    Horse Racing / Font 24th Oct : 1m6f NHF 24-Oct-12 17:40 24-Oct-12 17:44 0.87
    Horse Racing / Worc 24th Oct : 2m4f Hcap Hrd 24-Oct-12 17:30 24-Oct-12 17:35 1.26
    Horse Racing / Newm 24th Oct : 1m1f Nursery 24-Oct-12 17:20 24-Oct-12 17:22 1.42
    Horse Racing / Font 24th Oct : 2m4f Hcap Hrd 24-Oct-12 17:05 24-Oct-12 17:11 0.81
    Horse Racing / Worc 24th Oct : 2m4f Mdn Hrd 24-Oct-12 16:55 24-Oct-12 17:00 3.32
    Horse Racing / Navan 24th Oct : 1m5f Hcap 24-Oct-12 16:50 24-Oct-12 16:55 1.92
    Horse Racing / Worc 24th Oct : 2m4f Mdn Hrd 24-Oct-12 16:20 24-Oct-12 16:25 1.00
    Horse Racing / Font 24th Oct : 2m4f Beg Chs 24-Oct-12 14:20 24-Oct-12 14:26 1.04
    Horse Racing / Worc 24th Oct : 2m4f Hcap Chs 24-Oct-12 14:10 24-Oct-12 14:16 0.48
    Horse Racing / Navan 24th Oct : 1m Mdn 24-Oct-12 14:05 24-Oct-12 14:09 0.39
    Horse Racing / Newm 24th Oct : 7f Mdn Stks 24-Oct-12 14:00 24-Oct-12 14:03 0.62

    last 2 days

    had a nightmare in runnign trade ... lost £110 on 23/10/2012
    Football: £40.21 | Greyhound Racing: £10.84 | Horse Racing: £1.52 | Tennis: £9.12 Total P&L: £61.69

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    Default Make it a race ?

    Hey dude,

    just for fun I started a bank of 100 today for trading also to try to match you.

    Everything, pre race, mostly in play and even the odd soccer trade.

    Mind if I post up results here with you for a while to show how fantastic I am ?

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    PC0845 ... i dont mind at all, the more the merrier

    i have just got in from another shopping trip .... done a few races and small profit so far

    will post up results later

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    OK dude, so far today, will probably blow some of it before night is over but thats not unexpected.

    [IMG] Uploaded with ImageShack.us[/IMG]

    Go on me, now come on the pool!

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    Back on it .....

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    справка по The Geeks Toy на русском »» здеся ««

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    How are the markets these days?

    I had a dabble today, no graphs just my interpretation of the price action .... Seemed to be ok

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    £250 bank ........... never went in running

    todays results below, pretty happy with them.



    (yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) to


    (yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm)


    Horse Racing: £31.09 Total P&L: £31.09

    Horse Racing Showing 1 - 5 of 5 markets
    Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
    Horse Racing / Dund 23rd Jan : 1m4f Hcap 23-Jan-15 21:05 23-Jan-15 21:08 4.63
    Horse Racing / Dund 23rd Jan : 1m2f Hcap 23-Jan-15 20:35 23-Jan-15 20:45 13.16
    Horse Racing / Dund 23rd Jan : 1m Hcap 23-Jan-15 20:05 23-Jan-15 20:08 4.64
    Horse Racing / Dund 23rd Jan : 1m Mdn 23-Jan-15 19:35 23-Jan-15 19:39 7.05
    Horse Racing / Dund 23rd Jan : 7f Hcap 23-Jan-15 19:05 23-Jan-15 19:12 1.61

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    one loss (recoverred from-£20) and no in play

    25-Jan-2015 16:27

    Period:
    Download to Spreadsheet
    ?

    (relates to event settlement date)



    (yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm) to


    (yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm)


    Horse Racing: £59.80 Total P&L: £59.80

    Horse Racing Showing 1 - 12 of 12 markets
    Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£)
    Horse Racing / Leop 25th Jan : 2m INHF 25-Jan-15 16:20 25-Jan-15 16:25 9.91
    Horse Racing / Sedge 25th Jan : 2m1f Nov Hcap Hrd 25-Jan-15 16:05 25-Jan-15 16:11 1.69
    Horse Racing / Sedge 25th Jan : 2m4f Hcap Chs 25-Jan-15 15:35 25-Jan-15 15:41 3.97
    Horse Racing / Leop 25th Jan : 2m4f Grd2 Nov Hrd 25-Jan-15 15:15 25-Jan-15 15:23 5.04
    Horse Racing / Sedge 25th Jan : 2m1f Hcap Hrd 25-Jan-15 15:00 25-Jan-15 15:05 12.41
    Horse Racing / Leop 25th Jan : 2m Grd1 Hrd 25-Jan-15 14:45 25-Jan-15 14:50 4.96
    Horse Racing / Sedge 25th Jan : 3m3f Nov Hcap Chs 25-Jan-15 14:25 25-Jan-15 14:34 -2.81
    Horse Racing / Leop 25th Jan : 2m1f Hcap Chs 25-Jan-15 14:10 25-Jan-15 14:15 7.65
    Horse Racing / Sedge 25th Jan : 2m4f Hcap Hrd 25-Jan-15 13:55 25-Jan-15 14:01 1.52
    Horse Racing / Leop 25th Jan : 2m1f Grd1 Nov Chs 25-Jan-15 13:40 25-Jan-15 13:45 2.22
    Horse Racing / Sedge 25th Jan : 2m4f Nov Hrd 25-Jan-15 13:25 25-Jan-15 13:31 5.17
    Horse Racing / Leop 25th Jan : 2m Mdn Hrd 25-Jan-15 13:10 25-Jan-15 13:27 8.07

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    well done mate, you're at the level I've set my next goal at so I'm watching with interest. From what you've mentioned I take it this is from scalping? And only a £250 bank is very encouraging, hope you keep going as you are.

    What stakes are you using to get these results?

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    I'm scalping a few ticks here and there but today I was looking after my daughter while the wife was out so couldn't give it 100% focus.

    I'm very happy to make £5 a race average

    My bank is up to £340 now. I do increase my stakes as the bank grows so I don't get that phobia later on when I start to see £5 a tick

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    What stakes are you using to get these results?

    Hard to answer but I'm placing my initial backs with £100 and laying £20 stakes.

    I like to back first .... Always liked to do that unless it's odds on then I lay first

    I get nervous backing £100 at say 7.0 so rarely get involved in anything other than the first two in the betting.

    When the bank grows I'll get over that fear

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    Traded the last 3 tonight

    +10
    +9
    -26!!!!!

    The last one was ridiculous, trading with a 5 month old in my arms .... Lesson learnt.... Know when to stop

    Happy that my individual wins when I focus are increasing.

    Hope I can consistently reach the £20 a race mark by end of February/march

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    Haha, i know exactly what you mean, i used to trade downstairs in my Conservatory with 2 young kids around, leading to a lack of concentration and lost banks. I've also lost money watching the kids whilst my wife goes out.

    I take full responsibility so I have now, since Tuesday moved to a makeshift office in my bedroom and will no longer trade if i'm watching the kids.

    Although its early to say, i think these 2 rules have improved my concentration, leading to better results.

    I'm sure you'll reach your target judging by your results, it just seems that 1 costly loss that gets in the way.

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    I think the reality is that by settling for very small profits we run the risk of deluding ourselves that we have "cracked it". The ratio of amount won to amount lost on individual bets must be greater than one if a profit is to be achieved. So, for example, we stake £10 on five individual bets and are chuffed when we we win four lots of £2, then we blow a tenner when the fifth bet goes against us. The lower the ticks, or percentage, we take, the greater number of winning bets we need to break even let alone make a profit.

    I have studied trading for at least seven years and have been drawn to the conclusion that it can only be successful if a sensible "mechanical" approach is used in placing bets and that this is coupled with an "edge". This may be specialist, or inside, knowledge. This in turn could be an ability to appraise markets and see that the odds available are incorrect. By this I mean markets are often influenced by supporters/punters backing their own favourites more in hope than expectation. This means that the probable result is not directly related to the odds suggested by the market. Such things happen in football matches involving the most popular Premier League teams and the English national team, in particular. I can still not believe my luck that, many years ago, Holland were 7/2 against to beat England at Wembley but were thrashed out of sight, as I expected, primarily by a guy called Cruyff.

    Leaving aside the specific football examples given above, I believe that a knowledge of form is now essential to make a profit in horse racing. I don't mean that one needs to know details of individual horses but simply to appreciate that the bigger stables. Pipe, Henderson, King, Hobbs, etc. have periods of the year when they are in and out of form. Cheltenham will be with us soon and it is not rocket science to be able to predict that the biggest trainers, with the best jockeys, the most expensive horses and the richest owners will be more successful than the "little kids".

    There are traders who are successful for prolonged periods. They may use large stakes, win and gain confidence and stride on. Sadly, even these can and do "come a cropper". Most people would say that casinos always make money, the odds are balanced in their favour, and simple mathematics dictates that they will be cash cows for ever and ever. How is it then that I know of a city in the South West of England where two casinos "went bust" in a six month period ? The answer is luck. It swung against the casinos despite the predictions that statisticians would have made confidently.

    I believe that a trader must have a thorough knowledge of the exchange, must know how the markets work, know how to use his software properly, have an "edge" and, ultimately, he must have luck.

    My involvement in trading is fast drawing to an end. Definitely, in under two years, I will no longer be in the UK and no more Betfair for me. It would be nice to think that I had been successful and made loads of money. I haven't. I content myself by knowing that I have thoroughly enjoyed my trading/gambling and have been able to care for my family without risking silly sums of money. My countless hours of studying markets, coming up with ideas for bots, and working really hard have been fun.

    Luck is all important. As an example, I backed Over 2.5 goals at the start of the Sheffield Utd v Tottenham game. I backed it again at half time at much bigger odds in the hope that I could recover my initial stake/cut losses if an early goal was scored. It wasn't. Then, when a goal was eventually scored, and with time running out, I had the opportunity to take a small loss and get out. I clicked my mouse to take a loss and, after about a second, the market was suspended and I made a big profit instead. I could kid myself that my great trading skills had enabled me to make a pile of money when others would have failed. The truth, of course, was that I was unbelievably lucky. Pure luck, nothing else.

    I hope that you are all lucky. Unfortunately, this cannot be the case as, on Betfair, for every winner there is an equivalent loser.

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    or maybe as some old rumours says, for every winner there are 99 losers
    справка по The Geeks Toy на русском »» здеся ««

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    Quote Originally Posted by custard View Post
    I think the reality is that by settling for very small profits we run the risk of deluding ourselves that we have "cracked it". The ratio of amount won to amount lost on individual bets must be greater than one if a profit is to be achieved. So, for example, we stake £10 on five individual bets and are chuffed when we we win four lots of £2, then we blow a tenner when the fifth bet goes against us. The lower the ticks, or percentage, we take, the greater number of winning bets we need to break even let alone make a profit.

    I have studied trading for at least seven years and have been drawn to the conclusion that it can only be successful if a sensible "mechanical" approach is used in placing bets and that this is coupled with an "edge". This may be specialist, or inside, knowledge. This in turn could be an ability to appraise markets and see that the odds available are incorrect. By this I mean markets are often influenced by supporters/punters backing their own favourites more in hope than expectation. This means that the probable result is not directly related to the odds suggested by the market. Such things happen in football matches involving the most popular Premier League teams and the English national team, in particular. I can still not believe my luck that, many years ago, Holland were 7/2 against to beat England at Wembley but were thrashed out of sight, as I expected, primarily by a guy called Cruyff.

    Leaving aside the specific football examples given above, I believe that a knowledge of form is now essential to make a profit in horse racing. I don't mean that one needs to know details of individual horses but simply to appreciate that the bigger stables. Pipe, Henderson, King, Hobbs, etc. have periods of the year when they are in and out of form. Cheltenham will be with us soon and it is not rocket science to be able to predict that the biggest trainers, with the best jockeys, the most expensive horses and the richest owners will be more successful than the "little kids".

    There are traders who are successful for prolonged periods. They may use large stakes, win and gain confidence and stride on. Sadly, even these can and do "come a cropper". Most people would say that casinos always make money, the odds are balanced in their favour, and simple mathematics dictates that they will be cash cows for ever and ever. How is it then that I know of a city in the South West of England where two casinos "went bust" in a six month period ? The answer is luck. It swung against the casinos despite the predictions that statisticians would have made confidently.

    I believe that a trader must have a thorough knowledge of the exchange, must know how the markets work, know how to use his software properly, have an "edge" and, ultimately, he must have luck.

    My involvement in trading is fast drawing to an end. Definitely, in under two years, I will no longer be in the UK and no more Betfair for me. It would be nice to think that I had been successful and made loads of money. I haven't. I content myself by knowing that I have thoroughly enjoyed my trading/gambling and have been able to care for my family without risking silly sums of money. My countless hours of studying markets, coming up with ideas for bots, and working really hard have been fun.

    Luck is all important. As an example, I backed Over 2.5 goals at the start of the Sheffield Utd v Tottenham game. I backed it again at half time at much bigger odds in the hope that I could recover my initial stake/cut losses if an early goal was scored. It wasn't. Then, when a goal was eventually scored, and with time running out, I had the opportunity to take a small loss and get out. I clicked my mouse to take a loss and, after about a second, the market was suspended and I made a big profit instead. I could kid myself that my great trading skills had enabled me to make a pile of money when others would have failed. The truth, of course, was that I was unbelievably lucky. Pure luck, nothing else.

    I hope that you are all lucky. Unfortunately, this cannot be the case as, on Betfair, for every winner there is an equivalent loser.
    Hi Custard! That is a very interesting post, and yes for some reason some folk are lucky than others it mayb genetic not sure, also sorry to here you will be leaving soon you are a very knowledgeable person.

    Good Luck! Paul.

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    Trading is luck and probabilities. people try to find the holy grail in belief a system will work and then they fail.

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