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Thread: betting strategy's ?

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    Default betting strategy's ?

    I am thinking most people here are traders rather than bettors, but I am more interested in betting than trading.

    I have very little experience in laying and years of backing. I have always bet on 1 to 4 horses ( when I bet a race), depending on race lay-out and competition (current shape and running style) and odds receiving.

    I had a race last weekend where I felt 3 horses were evenly chanced at near 20% win probability each. They were trading at 1.80, 6.80, 8.20 - I backed the longer shots and layed the short (one of my first lays) - well you can guess who won, the 1.80 - which was a much worse result for me than if I backed all 3.

    Do many people here lay much? and do you do both lay and back in same race? and is it a 'greening up' type deal or are you using both back and lay as separate profit centers???

    I have practice with dutching - but now am looking at what I will call anti-dutching (laying a few horses to have max liability of XX amount).


    I am new here and hope to get some discussion going about betting strategy and methods - not necessarily related to pre-race odds movement trading

    ** craventy

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    Certainly, my primary method is trading football in-game and at HT.

    WRT betting on horses, you could back particular horses if you see value (presumably, you understand what I mean by this). I've heard that laying underdogs can work but you just need one or two underdogs you've laid at crazily high odds to come in and your bank is empty.

    I'm currently experimenting with betting in-race, either backing or laying if the price isn't too stupid (ie not risking £100 for £1), listening to Timeform and forming a view of the outcome. Early days yet. No strategy as such as it really is just betting with a view and good money management.

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    Quote Originally Posted by craventy View Post
    I am thinking most people here are traders rather than bettors, but I am more interested in betting than trading.

    I have very little experience in laying and years of backing. I have always bet on 1 to 4 horses ( when I bet a race), depending on race lay-out and competition (current shape and running style) and odds receiving.

    I had a race last weekend where I felt 3 horses were evenly chanced at near 20% win probability each. They were trading at 1.80, 6.80, 8.20 - I backed the longer shots and layed the short (one of my first lays) - well you can guess who won, the 1.80 - which was a much worse result for me than if I backed all 3.

    Do many people here lay much? and do you do both lay and back in same race? and is it a 'greening up' type deal or are you using both back and lay as separate profit centers???

    I have practice with dutching - but now am looking at what I will call anti-dutching (laying a few horses to have max liability of XX amount).


    I am new here and hope to get some discussion going about betting strategy and methods - not necessarily related to pre-race odds movement trading

    ** craventy
    I think what you have done is right. You have given selections a value chance of winning, and based on the odds chosen which way to go about it. You needed 5.00 + to back, or <5.00 to lay. You backed the value, laid the value.
    There are very few people out there laying that don't assess something as having a chance to win. Of course you will always get the ones that say "this can't win, I will lay at any odds", but they are a dime a dozen and will be replaced always when they go broke.
    What you have done is assessed a horse as having a 20% chance of winning the race. It should be no surprise that in fact the horse did win the race as you have identified it has a reasonable chance to do so. Doing this long term will of course make you a huge profit. Laying horses with a 20% chance of winning, and laying them at around 50%. Nothing at all wrong with this, and of course the basic strategy of bettors and traders (succesful ones) is to place your first bet at value (whether they know they are doing it or not).

    The only issue I can find with doing what you have done, is not knowing how good your selection method is. If your opinion is right, then you can't help but make money. But maybe the horse you identified as having a 20% chance of winning actually was closer to 80% which means that you laid a horse with a negative expectation, and backed 2 horses also with negative expectation.

    You can't take 1 race and base anything on it at all. As long as you are right on average, you win. Simple as that. So how sound is your selection and market making ability? That is the only question here.

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    my ability of predicting percentages is fairly good - there was no way that horse was a 80%.


    I think my 'exposure' to the race was more than I have been used to as I lost on all 3 when the underlay won- probably got a little greedy with the lay on the favorite bets trying to get the back bets for free.

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    Um. Isn't underlay to do with carpets?

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    an underlay has a lower probability of winning than payoff so that you would have a negative return on investment. An overlay has positive expectation and would have a positive return on investment (over the long run).


    so I was looking at those numbers and decided to work out various betting options - for this exercise, I am assuming the 20% probabilities are correct

    horse A 20% 1.8
    horse B 20% 6.8
    horse C 20% 8.2
    field D 20% high
    field E 20% higher bet L(lay) B(back) = 1 unit (return if that win)


    option1 --option --option 3 --option 4

    A LL(-5.6) -L(-3.8) - B(-1.2) --- (-2)
    B B(7.8) -- B(6.8) -- B(4.8) -- B(5.8)
    C B(9.2) -- B(8.2) -- B(6.2) -- B(7.2)
    D --- (0) --- (-1) ---- (-3) ---- (-2)
    E --- (0) --- (-1) ---- (-3) ---- (-2)

    now I am stuck - what am I risking with each combo, and ROI for each
    Last edited by craventy; 7th February 2012 at 02:16 PM. Reason: added spaces

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    "predicting percentages" is the difficult part here. It depends on which sport you are targetting, but if you are looking at horses I would give up now... the market is so sentiment driven you're likely to find it extremely hard to predict the percentage.

    An easier way to find value would be to look at the BSP in conjunction with prices bookies are offering. Explained well in this video...

    https://youtu.be/iL4rmbwFwEY
    Edges are ten-a-penny, execution is everything

    Read My FULL-TIME Racing Traders Blog Here!!
    T F YouTube

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