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Thread: Italy Vs Ireland

  1. #1
    Forum Guru PC0845's Avatar
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    Default Italy Vs Ireland

    How do you guys rate the price of 1.17 for Ireland to beat Italy on Saturday.

    I think it is crazy low for the following reasons.

    First Game of 6 nations - Usually takes 2/3 weeks to gel.
    Away from Home
    O'Connell playing : Just back from Injury and hasn't played well in 2 years.
    Leamy Playing : Hasn't done anything in years.
    O'Leary Playing : Absolute Rubbish.
    Earls Playing : Can't rely on potential forever, has never performed when it counted.

    (Despite comments about above 4 players ,I'm a Munster fan and see how well they played this year, so it's relatively objective). 2007/2008 final in Cardiff was one of the best day's I've ever had.

    Heaslip - Out - No Interantional team would refuse him.
    MCFadden In - No Experience - Competent but that's all.
    Fitzgerald in - Ditto for comment on Earls above, potential but no proof.
    O'Driscoll & D'Arcy centres - Class in the past but now devoid of pace.

    The other reason is we have no scrum, Italy most certainly do, I expect Ireland to scrape a result but @ 1.17 ?

    That price will surely drift. I hope so, I'm putting my money where my mouth is.

    Any thoughts folks ?

  2. #2
    Member pelican's Avatar
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    couldn't agree more! I follow Munster & Ireland also and though Ireland should come away with a win this is the weakest side we,ve had for years. Italy are no novices and will bully the Irish front 5 in the 1st 1/2 when they're fresh particularly in the scrum so I'm going for the lay in the expectation that come 1/2 time the Irish are out to 1.40 or further

  3. #3
    nigelbleddfa
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    Liquidity is very low in rugby union markets and sometimes disappears completely just after half time so be careful.

    My theory is that rugby union markets are not looked at by real traders and that they are formed by "drunks looking for mugs". I realise that I have chosen a rather crude method of describing them but, after a great deal of observation, it's the only conclusion I can come to. Lots of manipulation and skulldugery.

    I have considered joining the crooks to see if I can entrap punters but it's not really my style. Also, I once loved rugby union and now, since professionalism, I hate it.

    If you want to try making money you may consider setting a market yourself by both backing and laying, with a large tick difference, to see if mugs take both prices so allowing you to take the profit.

  4. #4
    Rugby Geek The Real Moaner's Avatar
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    Well I'm stuck with a draw lay but thankfully have no keep bets so know my position.

    Hopefully BF will re-emerge. Otherwise, I'll have to open a bookmaker's account at HT and take a loss!

  5. #5
    Forum Guru PC0845's Avatar
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    Default Oh look at the ref.

    Oh my God, I am so dim, next time I will consider the ref, he hates O'Connell, O'Gara and any Munster players.

    I really, really should have laid them to trade out but, as we all know BF is nasty at the moment. Awww, crap Italy just gone 3-0 up. Missed opportunity.

  6. #6
    nigelbleddfa
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    Crazy price for Over 2.5 goals in Stoke v Sunderland game - 2.5. Took it and the Betfair outage worked to my advantage as I couldn't trade out and took full profit

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    Forum Guru PC0845's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nigelbleddfa View Post
    Crazy price for Over 2.5 goals in Stoke v Sunderland game - 2.5. Took it and the Betfair outage worked to my advantage as I couldn't trade out and took full profit

    Would have been loser for me, well done.

  8. #8
    Forum Guru PC0845's Avatar
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    Fist half over, Italy 6-3 ahead. Absolutely dour rubbish, Ireland 1.34 now would definitely have traded out.

    Profit would have been about €75 (I originally laid €593 @ 1.17 for a liability of €100).

    Can't keep ignoring these opportunities.

  9. #9
    Web Strategy & Development Director jimrobo's Avatar
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    I thought Italy were going to nudge them out in the end! If only they had someone who could slot a DG it would have been goodnight Vienna for ireland and their 6 nations!

  10. #10
    Forum Guru PC0845's Avatar
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    Hindsight is really easy but there was a fortune to be made trading that one. Every momentum swing was predictable if you were watching it. Italy deserved to win, no questions.
    By the way any Leinster guys, that's why O'Gara is better than Sexton.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PC0845 View Post
    Hindsight is really easy but there was a fortune to be made trading that one. Every momentum swing was predictable if you were watching it. Italy deserved to win, no questions.
    By the way any Leinster guys, that's why O'Gara is better than Sexton.
    O'Gara still better than Sexton??? Get the bleedin boat mate will ya!!!!

  12. #12
    Forum Guru PC0845's Avatar
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    Default Who the f**** ?

    Who are the punters in the Rugby market ?

    Laid a nice bet in Munster Vs Northampton yesterday, but are they really pissed enough to back at crazy odds after 10 minutes ?

    Must be a punter, 'cos there's not much upside to a trade when you back @ 1.12.

    Not rewrwiting a BLOG post again but here's the summary.

    "
    Oh yes, finally the point of this post, thanks to the punter who put €200 on Northampton Saints @ 1.12 when leading the game with about 10 minutes gone. Even had Munster lost I would lay the bet again, around 70 minutes left, Munster unbeaten, O'Gara on the pitch, are you ****ing crazy ? "

    Despite my amour for Munster, and topping the seedings , Leinster will still be champs, methinks they are awesome. I'd say Dublin Dapper might agree.

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