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Thread: Scalping in play football

  1. #1
    Virgin Ggooner's Avatar
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    Default Scalping in play football

    I have been scalping the overs/unders for some time now with reasonable success mainly using Betfair video. I have been going for one tick at a time and scratching if there appears to be any possibility of a goal.

    Last night I was trading on the Stoke v Man U game and had built up reasonable profit. Unfortunately with the time delay on Sky, I was unable to get out before the Ashley Young goal as the market suspended as the ball passed the halfway line

    This would lead me to believe that the I should avoid this type of trading on televised matches, or was I just unlucky at the speed of the goal ? I'd be most interested to hear from others who trade in this way. I've been winning on 80-90% (on 50 matches) up to now and wondering if I've just been lucky.
    Last edited by Mr Moderator; 13th November 2017 at 01:30 PM.

  2. #2
    Media & PR Director Knight Rider's Avatar
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    Calling Shadowninja...

    He must still be on Doublebacks shed roof so check out his football scalping videos/chat whilst u wait link1 link2

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    I have been doin exactly the same last year in 2012 from january till december. I must say i have been strucked a lot of times by goals, but i started with 20euros and i built a good bank from 20e, but it was going really slow, and the profits was small really small in the begginings. I always watched the games on my television. I couldnt watch much games on ebtfair, but i remember than the few i could, the video on betfair was faster, i remember that in the european cup, where stream on betfair was around 2 seconds faster, but that was almost the only games i could look on betfair vide. I have been struck by goals many times, oand it always blew away a pretty chunk of my bank. Sometimes it was pretty brutal, i remember once when i had arround 400 on my account, and lost 160e from one goal becouse i mistakenly doubled clicked, and the goal was to fast, i thaught it was a a goal out, i think it was 2- 0 and 80th minute and as you know usually than at that time of the game the golman of the leading team will take at lest 30 seconds to release the goal kick, but it was a corner, and the goal came..... i was punching on the ground almost cried hehe, it was sometimes really stresfull when the goal came, but than you get back in the seat and look forward to new trades. I must say i like trading horses a looooot more you havent been lucky, you are on the right road i would say, keep doing it! The looses from the goals are part of it. They can take few weeks of profit sometimes..Take a break than for 2 days and come back stronger

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    Forum Addict dude67's Avatar
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    Consider scalping in the opposite direction, e.g. in Unders you lay first and then back.

    Of course you will have to accept the risk of a small loss, as you are basically trading against the flow of the prices.

    But the upside is that if a goal is scored while you have the position open, you will win instead of lose.

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    Forum Guru shadowninja's Avatar
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    Thanks for posting the links. Saves me the effort. It's really not for the feint-hearted which is why I gave it up. I did turn £20 into £1000 doing it, though, over 6 months or so, trading most biggish games.

    In theory, doing the opposite is safer but you could end up losing more, slowly, unless you know something others don't.

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    Blasphemer Firkinelle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by shadowninja View Post

    Thanks for posting the links. Saves me the effort. It's really not for the feint-hearted which is why I gave it up. I did turn £20 into £1000 doing it, though, over 6 months or so, trading most biggish games.

    In theory, doing the opposite is safer but you could end up losing more, slowly, unless you know something others don't.
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    I sometimes try scalping various football markets (normally match odds or the goals markets). It's not a very subtle approach, so you're always likely to come a-cropper once in a while.

    However, there are times when you can maximise your chances of making a tick or two, e.g. playing where the odds are more likely to move, when there's suitable liquidity, or when there's a suitable break in play, etc.

    But I also try watch out for markets where I know I have a fair edge in regards to market vs footage I'm watching or listening to. I don't have Sky any more but when I did it was at least 30 seconds behind real time, so I would never play a Sky game I was watching. And now, I have the same problem with BT Sport, so it's a watch only approach there.

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    I've been trading televised footie for a while now and there are a few things I try to keep in mind, maybe some/all might be helpful for you, but maybe not...

    1) so first of all I think it's important to realise that you will incur losses, it will happen at some stage or another, so don't be too down that something like this happened. Accept it as part of the 'game' and move onto the next trade. Don't let any emotions interfere with your trades, the highs and lows of winning and losing can play havok with your judgement so try to train yourself to accept losing with the same grace as winning. Once you've taught yourself that then it's just a matter of making sure you have more winning trades than losing trades in order to get an overall profit.

    2) choose your stakes carefully. I'm going to assume you have somesort of bankroll management in place, but I think it's important to only use a stake that you can afford to lose if the trade falls apart. Don't get me wrong, I wouldn't say I'd be happy to lose, but pick a stake that you won't feel too much if you lose it and use that for your trades. That way, if a sudden goal does catch you out and the trade is a loser then your trading bank won't be totally destroyed.

    3) pick a market that gives you a bit of protection, so for example I usually trade unders so if I were trading the u 0.5 or u 1.5 markets with my entire bank then I'd be open to a lot of risk. Obviously in the case of the 0.5 as soon as a goal went in I would have lost my entire bank. With the 1.5 I could probably trade out and take a loss of 80-90% of my stake, or hang around in the hope of reducing my loss a bit - this has the added risk of being exposed for a longer period of time though, and if another goal went in during this time I'd clearly be screwed. For those reasons I try to pick the 3.5, 4.5 or 5.5 markets, sure they don't move as quickly as the other markets, but on the other hand getting caught out by a goal isn't as disaterous as it is in the other markets.

    4) don't fall victim to 'just one more tick'. If you have a profit you are happy with, then get out while you're in the green. Sure, hanging around for longer or opening another trade could net you a bigger profit, but on the other side of the coin it could open you up to losing a chunk of that profit, or even worse taking a loss. I've been caught a lot of times by thinking 'hey, everything is going so well, I'll just take one more tick and then I'm done' and then BOOM, out of nowhere a goal and I'm left with either a fraction of the profit I had before or worse I'm now in the red and trying to minimise my loss.

    So overall I wouldn't say you should avoid this type of trading, just make sure you are managing your stake size so if you get caught out it's not the end of the world. Pick a market that is able to withstand a quick goal or two being scored without completely ruining your trade. Once you are in profit, then get out - there will always be another trade where you can make money so try not to get too greedy on one particular trade. And finally, when all that fails, try to take a loss on the chin and move on to the next game.

    Hope some/any of that helps!

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  13. #9
    Forum Addict valve's Avatar
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    Hi Dan, nicely written, I like it.

    I have been trading this way some time ago, but find it very stressful to me, so I let it go cause I use to do stupid things under pressure.

    If I can help some way:

    1. choose carefully the match (Premier league, Bundesliga, Primera Division,...) according to a picture delay. It makes no sense to enter the match you know others are faster than you. Depends on the league, what the delay is, and stays approximately the same for the current league.

    2. then choose the market you feel the most comfortable with. There is a plenty of options. You can go with or against the market (laying, backing). The most liquid are the match odds and under/over x goals markets. You can take more risk with e.g. under 2.5 goals market at 1:1 that moves very quickly, or the match odds at the end of the game, or for the less stress you can choose under/over 2.5 goals market at 0:0, or the match odds from the start of the game, as Dan said.

    Everything is up to you, choose the market you are the most comfortable with. Try to forecast the things. Don't be afraid of occasional loss, it's the part of the game.

    Hope something helps. Good luck.

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