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Premiership 12/13

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  • Premiership 12/13




    Without further ado, I hereby unveil model V ...

    The ongoing battle between the scientists and the 'others' is reaching new heights,
    with conspiracy theorists citing a plot where scientists are planning to take over the world ...

    I would like to say, at this point, that my model has been checked and verified by an academic who has had an equation named after him.
    This doesn't constitute a conspiracy and I hope that no prejudice or resentment begins to build against the scientific way of modelling football ...

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M77HfZu24bw


    ... and now, the conclusion of V ...

  • #2
    I will have three banks of a £1000 each ...
    • Match Odds
    • Over/Unders
    • Correct Score


    The bank will be divided by how many games that are simultaneously being played, i.e, seven games are being played today, so I will divide £1000 by seven ... Then, to add a bit of controversionalism, I will use 1/4 fractional Kelly (did he just say that?) staking ...

    I will take the prices anywhere upto 48hrs before kick off and I will have a play/think about whether to use Pinny or Betfair's prices, also if I should round my prices to Betfair increments ...


    Match Odds;

    Bank: £1000/7 = £142.85

    Reading - £13.33 @ 2.44
    West Brom - £5.93 @ 4.3
    West Ham - £13.89 @ 2.34
    Newcastle - £5.39 @ 2.66

    Over/Unders;

    Bank: £1000/7 = £142.85

    Fulham - Over 2.5 -£14.57 @ 1.96
    QPR - Over 2.5 - £13.29 @ 2.18
    Reading - Over 2.5 - £8.61 @ 2.24

    Correct Score;

    Bank: £1000/7 = £142.85

    Reading V Stoke - 2-0 -£1 @ 13.5
    West Ham V Aston Villa - 2-0 - £1.17 @ 12.5

    Comment


    • #3
      Match Odds;

      Bank: £1000/7 = £142.85

      Reading - £13.33 @ 2.44 -£13.33
      West Brom - £5.93 @ 4.3 £19.57
      West Ham - £13.89 @ 2.34 £18.61
      Newcastle - £5.39 @ 2.66 £8.95

      New Bank ... £1033.80

      Over/Unders;

      Bank: £1000/7 = £142.85

      Fulham - Over 2.5 -£14.57 @ 1.96 £13.00
      QPR - Over 2.5 - £13.29 @ 2.18 £15.68
      Reading - Over 2.5 - £8.61 @ 2.24 -£8.61

      New Bank ... £1026.80

      Correct Score;

      Bank: £1000/7 = £142.85

      Reading V Stoke - 2-0 -£1 @ 13.5 -£1
      West Ham V Aston Villa - 2-0 - £1.17 @ 12.5 -£1.17

      New Bank ... £997.83

      Total Profit ... £52.69

      Comment


      • #4


        Match Odds;

        Bank ... £1033.80/7 (I will elaborate on this in another post) = £147.69

        Wigan - £5.91 @ 6

        Over/Unders;

        Bank ... £1026.80/7 = £146.69

        Wigan/Chelsea - Over 2.5 - £11.08 @ 1.95

        Comment


        • #5
          A good start Doubleback, well done, but shouldn't your new bank for the over/unders be £1020.07 not £1026.80? And total profit should be £51.70 instead of £52.69?

          Also, not sure how you reach some of your profit figures e.g. how does £14.57 @ 1.96 = £13.00? Shouldn't this be £13.99? Or have you taken off commission?

          Comment


          • #6
            Feck me, cheers for pointing that out ...

            It was a total school boy error, I just had a look at my workings and they were correct, for some reason I just put them on here wrong.

            I think I get slightly dyslexic after too much screen time ...

            Comment


            • #7
              Why are you not backing Southampton then DB?

              Comment


              • #8
                Man City 1 - 2 Southampton

                Twenty minutes of the game left ...

                Comment


                • #9
                  "thanks" to API malfunction I was for a while in + 1000e profit, unfortunately after my safety closing bet reducing my loss

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by WhyAlwaysMe View Post
                    Why are you not backing Southampton then DB?
                    I thought Man City would win ... I was tempted, very tempted in fact. I was thinking that a trade on Southampton would be good, but didn't want to muddy the waters ... One thing that I take from that game is to be more trusting (slightly) of my model, when Southampton went in front I nearly choked on my custard cream! The prices were way out and, after all, exploiting those misaligned prices is the goal ...

                    Putting things in order, I will get the stakes, banks etc, in order after my cock-up ...

                    Match Odds;

                    Bank: £1000/7 = £142.85

                    Reading - £13.33 @ 2.44 -£13.33
                    West Brom - £5.93 @ 4.3 £19.57
                    West Ham - £13.89 @ 2.34 £18.61
                    Newcastle - £5.39 @ 2.66 £8.95

                    New Bank ... £1033.80

                    Over/Unders;

                    Bank: £1000/7 = £142.85

                    Fulham V Norwich - Over 2.5 -£14.57 @ 1.96 £13.99
                    QPR V Swansea - Over 2.5 - £13.29 @ 2.18 £15.68
                    Reading V Stoke - Over 2.5 - £8.61 @ 2.24 -£8.61

                    New Bank ... £1021.06

                    Correct Score;

                    Bank: £1000/7 = £142.85

                    Reading V Stoke - 2-0 -£1 @ 13.5 -£1
                    West Ham V Aston Villa - 2-0 - £1.17 @ 12.5 -£1.17

                    New Bank ... £997.83

                    Total Profit ... £52.69



                    Then we correct the stakes for the Wigan V Chelsea game ...

                    Match Odds;

                    Bank ... £1033.80/7 = £147.69

                    Wigan - £5.91 @ 6 -£5.91

                    New Bank ... £1027.89

                    Over/Unders;

                    Bank ... £1021.06/7 = £145.86

                    Wigan/Chelsea - Over 2.5 - £11.01 @ 1.95 -£11.01

                    New Bank ... £1010.05

                    Total Profit ... -£16.92

                    Comment


                    • #11


                      Match Odds;

                      Bank £1033.80/7 = £147.68

                      Everton - £5.91 @ 4.2
                      Reading - £9.16 @ 14.5

                      Over/Unders;

                      Bank ... £1021.06/7 = £145.86

                      Everton V Man Ure - Over 2.5 - £18.96 @ 2

                      Correct Score;

                      Bank ... £997.83/7 = £142.55

                      Everton V Man Ure - 2-2 - £0.54 @ 18
                      Chelsea V Reading - 1-1 - £1.17 @ 12.5

                      * P.S. No Sporting Index numbers on the Chelsea game as of yet, I may update ...

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        I'm confused. Newbie here.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by rokitofrito View Post
                          I'm confused. Newbie here.
                          If you read this thread, all should become clear,

                          http://www.geekstoy.com/forum/showthread.php?t=8898
                          When I die and they lay me to rest,
                          I'm gonna get pissed with Georgie Best

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            ... 36 minutes into the game ...

                            Chelsea 2.32
                            Reading 3.8
                            Draw 3.25

                            Chelsea 1-2 Reading

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by doubleback View Post
                              ... 36 minutes into the game ...

                              Chelsea 2.32
                              Reading 3.8
                              Draw 3.25

                              Chelsea 1-2 Reading
                              4-2 right? Chelsea

                              Comment

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