20:45 Gillingham - Southend

[redstar]

ENGLAND: League Two
20:45 Gillingham - Southend (over 2,5)

Gillingham have 7-3-2 at home. They have scored 22 and conceded 12 goals in that 12 home matches. The last two Gillingham's matches: Accrington vs Gillingham 4:3; Gillingham vs Wimbledon 3:4. Southend have 9-1-4 on the road. THey have scored 32 and conceded 21 goals in thet 14 away matches. They had made 10 over and 2 under matches. They are having 6 over matches in a row (on the road). Both teams are in good shape, good attack, unsure defense.

[doubleback]

At Gillingham (51)

Gilliingham = 33 (64.71%)
Southend = 8 (15.69%)
Draws = 10 (19.61%)

Goals:

Gillingham = 91 Average per/game = 1.78
Southend = 38 Average per/game = 0.75

I would back Gillingham @ 2.6 and/or Under 2.5 @ 2.12.





* As always, read the fecking small print and take no notice of db's football predictions!

[Thomson]

Gillingham goalkeeper Ross Flitney is facing around a month on the sidelines after undergoing knee surgery.
The 27-year-old has been an ever-present for Andy Hessenthaler's men in npower League Two this season, but Paul Gazzaniga is now poised to start Monday's televised clash with Southend.
Darren Hawkes has been recalled from his loan spell at Maidstone and will come into the Gills squad as goalkeeping cover.

Meanwhile, Paul Sturrock has threatened to make wholesale changes when Southend head south to Kent.
The Shrimpers had their promotion push checked as they went down to a 2-0 defeat at home to Rotherham on Friday night, leaving Sturrock furious with their efforts.
"In our next game, I will pick 11 boys who listen to what I say and the others will be sat on the bench or in the stands," he said........................

Sounds like they are talking goals for this one DB......

[PC0845]

I would back Gillingham @ 2.6 and/or Under 2.5 @ 2.12.


* As always, read the fecking small print and take no notice of db's football predictions!

Glad I read the smallprint DB, ffs, you are worse than me.

[doubleback]

1-2


Yeah, an 87th minute own goal, was the clincher! A result, is a result!
Thanks for your 'Team News' perspective, Thomson. It's healthy, to be challenged on a veiwpoint.
Statistics versus team knowledge, is something that I'm dipping my toe into at the moment. Neither one is 100%, therefore, sometimes it will not go the desired way! Nevertheless, I'm now seeing very good examples of Probability versus Value, and Stats vesus Team News. I can categorically state, that I have no proven edge. I take the Edison, point of view "I now know definitively over 9,000 ways that an electric light bulb will not work. Success is almost in my grasp."
To be honest, I wouldn't have chosen this game, it was just another notch on what doesn't work, however, the games that my selection process are currently churning out, offer little value. That, in a fluffy nutshell, is where I'm at, with regards to footy punting. If I were to trade the same games, an edge could possibly be achieved. The worthiness of the selections therefore, is what I wish to examine. In tonights game, the predictions that I made would have gone red pretty quick, but, that is just one game out of a sample size of x!

Well done, Thomson and redstar!

[Thomson]

Each to their own as regards statistics v team news DB..Interesting angle to look at I suppose. For me though I like to stick the horse in front of the cart, if I wish to trade the game then I want to know factors that pertain to that game.
As you said the statistics would have you red from early on whereas the opposite approach gave you options.
I view up to date team news as vital knowledge, call it an edge if you like. Wont always work but it gives you a confidence to find the reason to enter the trade and that in itself is another edge.......