QPR v Newcastle

[Caan Berry]

Sky got QPR Newcastle on tonight, is it really as evenly matched as the odds suggest? i wouldnt have thought although am no football nut... draw 3.25

[Firkinelle]

Would have thought this would have been right up Nigels street with regard to bookings. I'm sure his ex team mates will be winding Joey Barton up and with Dowd refereeing (he's given 24 yellows in 4 games this season) so that could be a route to take.

[custard]

I'm doing Over 2.5 goals and could do with an early one. I have no views on the result as I feel anything could happen. Part of the reason I do the Overs market is that I can chicken out of picking winners of games. I have a feeling it could be lively because

http://whatculture.com/sport/match-p...t-football.php

Phil Dowd is the referee.

So, could be a lot of bookings too.

I've done well this weekend , West Brom scored nice and early and I traded out immediately, just as well as final score was only 1 - 0 and it was a similar story in other games, only the Juventus game actually running the distance with a kiddy's result of five goals

Current odds for Overs = 2.3, very good, I think. Bookings not so clever at only 1.9 for 9 points or more. Overs for me, for a change

[Morgans Choice]

Hi all,

I;ve got this one as follows :-

Home - 45%

Draw - 28%

Away - 28%


cheers, MC

[Caan Berry]

mmmmm what is it with the overs and unders markets? never really got that, was thinking of having a LTD if they manage the first 15 mins without a goal... surely it wont be goaless

the bookings will add to the cooking pot - this could be interesting

chuck

[Emkayracing]

New Park Rangers!

QPR hand starts to five debutants; Traore, Barton, Wright-Phillips, Ferdinand and Young.

All form has to go out of the window as this is a totally new QPR outfit! Barton has been named as captain, surprisingly enough.

Sides;

QPR: Kenny, Young, Ferdinand, Gabbidon, Traore, Barton, Derry, Faurlin, Wright-Phillips, Bothroyd, Taarabt. Subs: Murphy, Hall, Campbell, Buzsaky, Connolly, Smith, Puncheon.

Newcastle: Krul, Simpson, Steven Taylor, Coloccini, Ryan Taylor, Obertan, Cabaye, Tiote, Gutierrez, Best, Shola Ameobi. Subs: Elliot, Santon, Guthrie, Lovenkrands, Ba, Marveaux, Sammy Ameobi.

A watcher for me - there is no point in diving into this with the Champs League fixtures and Man U v Chelsea / Spurs v Liverpool around the corner.

Be lucky

[custard]

Anything could happen in this game, Chuck, and very few would have strong views about the outcome. 2.3 is quite a high price for Over 2.5 goals and is inviting to me simply because it is high.

I can never understand how some people can offer big odds about goals not being scored. Anything can happen because it is a football match where both teams try to score goals. I see backing Overs at 2.3 to be better value than laying the draw at 3.3. Not long to wait now. Overs is my favourite market and I might place more bets as the game progresses.

[Caan Berry]

Nice..... just seen a £43,000 Lay go in at 3.3 couple mins before the off, madness!

[Caan Berry]

ok so i see the overs has more liquidity aswell... but at that sort of price range is it worth playing? to turn any decent money need to be playing with 500's at least... and risk reward not really worth it for such a small tick value

[custard]

I've done thousands of Overs bets and it is only possible to judge whether or not it's worth doing over many games and one in isolation says little. I don't want to lose tonight but, if I do, I will not lose any sleep over it. I win more often than I lose and that's all that matters.

At the time of writing the figures of matched money show that match odds market is four times the size of the Overs market. Nevertheless, £ 650,000 traded is OK.

The game is frantic as expected and I am hopeful

[Caan Berry]

yeah, alot that market making on the match odds though dont believe some those sums, probably bf or some heavy duty traders.... the draw odds dont wanna budge..... obviously everyone thinks theirs gonna be a goal? does look frantic, might go in soon. one of two things are going to happen, either comes a point and odds will tumble or goal and hit the roof.... hmmm question is which one do i side with?!

[custard]

I've gone in again at 3.4. Have to be careful I don't get carried away

[Caan Berry]

so your just trying to scalp backing first in case a goal goes in first right?

[custard]

That's a part of it but I'm hoping for more than one goal as the game stands now. If they start to play lazily and keep making back passes, I'll settle for less but I am happy so far. Both teams are trying hard and QPR should really have scored by now.

[Caan Berry]

yeah couldnt agree more, bit of half time scalping i think as its looking like 0 -0 HT then im gonna go in and if i have to kiss a few quid bye so be it... had a herendous day on the gg's today