Super League. Round 1. Non Televised games.

[The Real Moaner]

Teams have to announce a 19 man squad 48 hours before kick off so I plan to post team news and odds once they are announced along with some general comments. I usually write a general preview of the weekend's games on Thursday evening for my blog so if anyone has any comments, that's great. :-) If not, I shall witter on to myself!

Leeds v Castleford - Friday 8 PM.

Leeds Rhinos squad

Webb, Donald, Delaney, Senior, Hall, McGuire, Burrow, Leuluai, Buderus, Peacock, Jones-Buchanan, Lauitiiti, Sinfield, Diskin, Eastwood, Bailey, Ablett, Burgess, Watkins.

Castleford Tigers squad

Owen, Shenton, Evans, Wainwright, Chase, Sherwin, Sargent, Hudson, Huby, Ferres, Snitch, Westerman, Jones, Higgins, Jackson, Netherton, Davies, McGoldrick, Widders.

Best Odds: Leeds 1/9 - Castleford 7.

Now, here is a set of ridiculous odds. Are Leeds clear favourites? Yes. They are the champions and had a run out last week. But with some bookies going 1/12? 1/16? That's ridiculous.

As an aside, you can usually expect very little to be matched on Betfair until 24 hours before the game, possibly 48 for SKY games. However, look at this market... Something very very weird has happened, but I'm happy enough with it. ;-)

Wigan v Crusaders - Friday 8 PM

Wigan Warriors squad

Phelps, Roberts, Gleeson, Carmont, Richards, S. Tomkins, Leuluai, Fielden, Riddell, Coley, Hansen, J. Tomkins, O'Loughlin, Prescott, Paleaaesina, Deacon, O'Carroll, Mossop, Goulding.

Crusaders RL squad

Youngquest, Mellars, Raynor, Witt, O'Hara, Withers, Bryant, Hauraki, Chan, Trimarchi, Dyer, Lee, Winternstein, Peek, Thackray, James, Flower, White, Lupton.

Best Prices: Wigan 1/25 - Crusaders 10.

Wigan are deserved short price favourites. However, I'd be happy to lay at 1/25! Crusaders have some match practice after last week, showed some ability last week and have a coach returning to his old club. Unlikely yes, but not impossible.

[The Real Moaner]

So I just tried to back the draw in Castleford v Leeds at 40/1 with Bet 365.

Anyone wish to guess how much they were willing to let me stake??

12 pence.

[The Real Moaner]

Round 1 Previews will be delayed until I calm down. - http://against-all-the-odds.blogspot...2/furious.html

[The Real Moaner]

Wigan v Crusaders team news.

(1) Cameron Phelps FULL BACK Nick Youngquest ( )
(2) Amos Roberts WINGER Luke Dyer (2)
(3) Martin Gleeson CENTRE Rocky Trimarchi ( )
(4) George Carmont CENTRE Vince Mellars ( )
(5) Pat Richards WINGER Gareth Raynor ( )
(6) Sam Tomkins STAND OFF Michael Witt ( )
(7) Thomas Leuluai SCRUM HALF Lincoln Withers (9)
(8) Stuart Fielden PROP Ryan O'Hara (8)
(9) Mark Riddell HOOKER Tommy Lee ( )
(14) Paul Prescott PROP Jamie Thackray ( )
(11) Harrison Hansen SECOND ROW Jason Chan (19)
(12) Joel Tomkins SECOND ROW Weller Hauraki ( )
(13) Sean O'Loughlin LOOSE FORWARD Frankie Winternstein ( )

(10) Andy Coley SUBS Adam Peek (11)
(17) Iafeta Paleaaesina Jordan James (17)
(19) Paul Deacon Mark Bryant (10)
(23) Lee Mossop Peter Lupton (15)

Pretty much as expected. Wigan worthy favourites on Betfair. I'll be looking to lay Wigan for a very small stake just in case.

[The Real Moaner]

(1) Brent Webb FULL BACK Ryan McGoldrick (23)
(2) Scott Donald WINGER Richard Owen (1)
(3) Brett Delaney CENTRE Michael Shenton (3)
(4) Keith Senior CENTRE James Evans (4)
(5) Ryan Hall WINGER Michael Wainwright (5)
(6) Danny McGuire STAND OFF Rangi Chase (6)
(7) Rob Burrow SCRUM HALF Brent Sherwin (7)
(16) Ryan Bailey PROP Paul Jackson (16)
(9) Danny Buderus HOOKER Ryan Hudson (9)
(10) Jamie Peacock PROP Liam Higgins (15)
(11) Jamie Jones-Buchanan SECOND ROW Brett Ferres (11)
(18) Carl Ablett SECOND ROW Steve Snitch (12)
(13) Kevin Sinfield LOOSE FORWARD Joe Westerman (13)

(14) Matt Diskin SUBS Stuart Jones (14)
(15) Greg Eastwood Mitchell Sargent (8)
(12) Ali Lauitiiti Dean Widders (25)
(19) Luke Burgess Craig Huby (10)

Again - no major surprises.

However, I think the odds are way too low on Leeds. Yes, they probably will win and could win big, but the market is massively underrating Cas. I think Leeds should be 1.15 - 1.2 at worst! 1.1 is a lay for mine. Not a large stake but this is probably a 2 point 1.1 lay.

During tonight I'll be in the other thread. These games usually have no liquidity but we'll see in 2010!

[The Real Moaner]

Anyone listening to me last night would have achieved a nice profit in the Leeds v Cas game. (Luck more than skill!)

Let's see how the Sunday games matched up. Again, in play liquidity is poor but there is usually "some" around with no RL game on TV.

Hull KR v Salford - Sunday 3 PM

Hull Kingston Rovers squad

Briscoe, Fox, Welham, Webster, Ratu, Colbon, Cooke, Dobson, Vella, Lovegrove, Wheeldon, Murrell, Newton, Cook, Watts, Netherton, Fisher, Cockayne, I'Anson.

Salford City Reds squad

Fitzpatrick, Broughton, McGilvray, Talau, Gibson, Ratchford, J. Smith, Cashmere, Alker, Parker, Sibbit, Adamson, Swain, M. Smith, Littler, Leuluai, Tyrer, Holdsworth, Boyle.

Hull KR are without back rower Ben Galea and have not completed the signing of Joel Clinton. Therefore, KR are rather weak upfront.

Salford meanwhile have a very young backline and they may not have the biggest team either. I am very high on Stefan Ratchford who I feel outplayed Richie Myler last year.

Again, Hull KR are deserved favourites but I definitely have Salford rated higher than most, and KR rated lower than most. With it being the first week of the season, probably don't want to overcommit but I would much rather be on Salford. The betfair market hasn't settled yet. If Salford end up around 7, this would be a 2 pointer. If they end up around 5, more of a 1 point.

Wakefield v Catalans - Sunday 3.30 PM

Wakefield Wildcats squad

Gleeson, Millard, George, Jeffries, Brough, Tronc, Newton, Korkidas, Ferguson, Morrison, Demetriou, Obst , Bibb, Johnson, Henderson, Murphy, King, Leo-Latu, Morton.

Catalans Dragons squad

Greenshields, Bell, Raguin, Sa, Pelo, Mogg, Ferriol, McGuire, Guisset, Elima, Mounis, Johnson, Baile, Gossard, Touxagas, Bentley, Martins, Walker, Casty.

Wakefield are without the suspended Richard Moore and may be without Terry Newton. However, they will need much more size than they used against Harlequins to cope against Catalans' massive pack. Wakefield already have one game under their belt though which is a huge boost.

Catalans are without KEY man Thomas Bosc who is everything that is good about French Rugby League whilst Jamal Fakir is also out (I love a team with a "Fakir" and "Touxagas" - but Oldham who have a "Wayne Kerr" take the award for best name in RL but I digress). The Catalans are a good team and they came together at the end of last year.

However, they have lost Greg Bird who was their best player last year and their new signings will take some time to bed in. Catalans are a very unpredictable team who can beat anyone or lose to anyone.

If Thomas Bosc had been fit, I would have thought they would be a 2 point away bet as the favourites are being overrated after a good performance last week. However, without Bosc, I would not want to risk more than 1 point unless they shoot out to beyond 2/1.

Warrington v Harlequins - Sunday 3 PM

Warrington Wolves squad

L. Anderson, V. Anderson, Atkins, Bridge, Briers, Carvell, Grix, Harrison, Higham, King, Mathers, Mitchell, Monaghan, Morley, Myler, Riley, Solomona, Westwood, Wood.

Harlequins RL squad

Bolger, Clubb, Esders, Gale, Golden, Howell, James, Jones-Bishop, Kaye, Melling, O'Callaghan, Orr, Randall, Sharp, Smith, Ward, Wilkes, Williams, Williamson.

Warrington are without Chris Hicks and Jon Clarke but have the strongest squad in the league in my opinion. Quins are without one of their best players in Louie McCarthy Scarsbrook who is suspended and is a massive loss for what was already one of the weakest packs in the league.

I have loved Warrington over the past two years due to their inconsistency. Back when underdogs. Lay when favourites. And watch them choke against Saints! Sadly, Tony Smith appears to have removed that and moulded Warrington into a consistent side.

However, anything can happen and so I would look to back Quins for a small stake just in case but, the price should be more along the Wigan Crusaders price than the Leeds Castleford price.

[The Real Moaner]

Rather interesting that in the two "big favourite" games, the favourite is being pushed out so that the underdog is an equivalent price to back as at the best bookmakers price.

Presume this is someone reacting to the overturns we have seen so far. I would never advocate a 1.15 shot, because in RL, I don't think one can ever be safe, but I think Warrington may be overpriced whilst at 1.3 Hull KR are approaching the sphere of the "correct price".

[smudger78]

Rather interesting that in the two "big favourite" games, the favourite is being pushed out so that the underdog is an equivalent price to back as at the best bookmakers price.

Presume this is someone reacting to the overturns we have seen so far. I would never advocate a 1.15 shot, because in RL, I don't think one can ever be safe, but I think Warrington may be overpriced whilst at 1.3 Hull KR are approaching the sphere of the "correct price".

I think warrington are a shie in given Harlequins injury list...

[The Real Moaner]

I think they'd be a shoe in even without it. ;-)

People seem to be starting off 2010 with reference to reputation. Leeds, Saints and Bradford were all underpriced. Warrington's previous inconsistency renders them being overpriced.

Still, you cannot buy money in RL (the Leeds v Celtic game confirms that) so I will look to have some green on Quins, like I did on Celtic v Wigan.

[The Real Moaner]

Team news - Salford v Hull KR

(1) Shaun Briscoe FULL BACK Karl Fitzpatrick (1)
(2) Peter Fox WINGER Jodie Broughton (2)
(3) Kris Welham CENTRE Ashley Gibson (5)
(28) Ben Cockayne CENTRE Steve Tyrer (20)
(5) Liam Colbon WINGER Dean McGilvray (24)
(4) Jake Webster STAND OFF Stefan Ratchford (6)
(7) Michael Dobson SCRUM HALF Matty Smith (14)
(8) Rhys Lovegrove PROP Ray Cashmere (8)
(9) Scott Murrell HOOKER Malcolm Alker (9)
(10) Scott Wheeldon PROP Robert Parker (10)
(11) Clint Newton SECOND ROW Luke Adamson (12)
(14) Matt Cook SECOND ROW Luke Swain (13)
(6) Paul Cooke LOOSE FORWARD Daniel Holdsworth (21)

(20) Mick Vella SUBS Jeremy Smith (7)
(22) Liam Watts Ian Sibbit (11)
(17) Ben Fisher Phillip Leuluai (16)
(16) Jason Netherton Ryan Boyle (19)

First time I can remember in a long time that we have two entirely English three quarter lines! KR's team on paper does look superior but we shall see. I had expected Salford to be backable at 6. At 5 - 5.5, they are probably worth 1 point.

[The Real Moaner]

Team news - Warrington v Harlequins

(1) Richie Mathers FULL BACK Jamie O'Callaghan (22)
(2) Chris Riley WINGER Chris Melling (1)
(4) Chris Bridge CENTRE Tony Clubb (3)
(23) Ryan Atkins CENTRE David Howell (4)
(3) Matt King WINGER Will Sharp (5)
(6) Lee Briers STAND OFF Danny Orr (7)
(7) Richie Myler SCRUM HALF Luke Gale (21)
(8) Adrian Morley PROP David Williams (24)
(9) Michael Monaghan HOOKER Chad Randall (9)
(10) Garreth Carvell PROP Oliver Wilkes (14)
(11) Louis Anderson SECOND ROW Luke Williamson (11)
(12) Ben Westwood SECOND ROW Ryan Esders (18)
(13) Ben Harrison LOOSE FORWARD Jason Golden (16)

(14) Mickey Higham SUBS Ben Kaye (15)
(16) Paul Wood Matt James (19)
(17) Simon Grix Lamont Bryan (25)
(26) David Solomona Ben Bolger (28)

These teams look a complete mismatch. Quins look very weak whilst Wire look very strong. I always advocate laying 1.1s, but I'm struggling to find good value here. Will put some green on Quins, but probably less than 1 point.

FYI - I was lucky enough to get the draw backed at ridiculous odds this morning. I'm offering it back at 50 if anyone is interested. Bear in mind that there is practically no trade out possibilities in play, but I would say that 50 is a fair price. I've just backed at a much more generous price and do not want to overstake.

[The Real Moaner]

Radio links to this afternoon's matches. http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/rugb...ue/7874583.stm

[Firkinelle]

Think I'll give them a miss as I don't know what I'm doing. It's not too bad when there is liquidity.

[The Real Moaner]

If it is anything like last year, then the Sunday games can occasionally have some liquidity which I usually get involved at. (It tends to be some favourable odds) which, due to my trading tendencies, I then try to re-sell at slightly below market value to avoid any losses.

Hopefully going to not offer below value this year but I have started doing it, so if I do, I'll let people on here know but bear in my mind that what I offer will probably constitute a bet as you won't be able to get out.

[The Real Moaner]

Both favs have opened the scoring with a try.

There's a huge amount available to back Wire. If they get the next try and it is still there, I would advocate backing it.