First Rugby League post of the year

[The Real Moaner]

I'll be lazy and copy this from the Betfair forum. Something I've just been looking at for the basis of a blog post so only just very sketchy thoughts given that I'm snowed out of work until Friday or next week and looking for things to do!

One thing's for sure, it won't be the last post of the year!

Does anyone look to get involved in Season bets for Super League?

The season starts in 3 weeks and I was having a look at some of these on Oddschecker before and the following caught my eye.

Bradford to finish in the Bottom 8 at 7/2. Hard to imagine Bradford being outside the 8 two years on the run and the price may be a bit skinny, but on paper their team looks dreadful. Considering they are the same as price as Wigan seems generous.

Catalans at 9/4 also seem a tad on the large side, with Greg Bird having left. They did seem to come together at the end of last year, but with Adam Mogg seemingly earmarked to play at 6 all season this year, I wouldn't be too surprised if they were among the also-rans.

Salford to finish in the Top 8 at 8/1. They managed to beat Saints and Leeds last year which shows they have the talent and their young squad is one year older now. I agree it's unlikely to happen, but 8/1 seems too large.

I also like Hull at 4/7 but depositing money for so long at those odds isn't worthwhile (Better to use it in play during the SKY matches). They have signed a lot of old guys (Long, Fitzgibbon and O'Meley) but they look good enough for the playoffs.

Crusaders to finish bottom at 10/11. Their coaching set up appears top notch, but when you look at their playing squad, that price looks massive. Maybe they have more players set to come? They are the only team who I haven't been able to find a squad list for in full. They can also be backed to be nilled at 3. They were nilled 4 times last year so that doesn't seem too bad a shout? Salford at 8s doesn't seem too bad either. The only danger appears to be Harlequins who went really backwards last year and have recruited poorly but they can be covered at 10.

Finally, the Handicap market. Salford +27 at 10 seems decent value to me as does Wakefield +20 at 9 and Warrington +10 at 8.

Wakefield were only 10 behind Leeds last year so +20 seems incredibly generous whilst I expect Warrington to finish 2nd behind Leeds this year though the danger will probably always be one team overperforming.

Never got involved in any of this stuff before so any chance Betfair loads similar markets? Anyone have any thoughts?

[Keefter]

I've never bet on RL though I do quite enjoy watching it. I'll keep my eye on your posts for any insight into trading strategies.

I do bet on football a fair bit but I find season bets a bit boring, much in the same way that I find Antepost betting on horses irritating, ties up too much money for a long period. I'm sure there are plenty of opportunities but I'm too impatient.

Keefter

[The Real Moaner]

Thought I'd have another look at the markets today.

SL Rookie of the Year. I really rate Jonny Lomax who is coming through at Saints - for mine he can be better than Eastmond and Greg McNally looks a class act as well. However, I'm not sure how much game time both will get. The stand out looks to be Ben Jones Bishop. He can be electric going forward which will catch the eye and he will stand out in a poor Harlequins side. 12/1 is not the greatest price but I expect him to do well. Also, Bradford have a very thin squad so Elliot Whitehead or James Donaldson could be decent back up options at 20 and 14.

Man of Steel. Again, not the best price but I expect Keiron Cunningham to win this. Ryan Giggs anyone? KC has declared this to be his last season and he is pretty well liked by most. It's incredible he's never won it yet. P.S. - Would love to be able to lay some of the options! James Graham and Jamie Peacock at 6???

Without Leeds and Saints. Warrington looks a stand out at 4. Without Leeds Warrington are 6s and I think that's a good shout as I expect them to overcome Saints.

Albert Godthorpe Medal. This usually goes to a stand out player in an overachieving but relatively poor side. Some very attractive odds. Rangi Chase at 33s looks the stand out price, especially when compared to Brent Sherwin's price. Thomas Bosc at 20 and Matt Orford at 16 also stand out.

Bottom 6. Catalans at 5/2 and Bradford at 7/2 look stand outs.

Top 8 Finish. Salford at 8s look too large, whilst Cas / Wakey at 7/4 look decent shouts. I lean more towards Wakey as their squad is stronger on paper.

To Finish Bottom. Crusaders are 9/10. Some of their signings recently are "decent". They no longer look the absolute certs they did a few weeks ago. 9/10 for tying your money up for 6 months? The stand out price has to be Harlequins at 10. Rob Purdham is a HUGE loss for them as he gives them so much leadership and direction. Like Salford for the Top 8, it's unlikely but 10s looks too large. Their squad is weak on paper. Danny Orr is aging and Luke Dorn has never looked the player he was in his first year.

[nigelbleddfa]

There is nothing wrong with ante-post betting and some enjoy it more than others. I don't do it anymore having backed John Daley and Stewart Cink to win the Open Golf Tournament. My mistakes were to back Daley in 1994, he won in 1995 when I didn't back him, and Stewart Cink in 2008, and he won in 2009.
The mindset of the trader is essentially " in and out as quickly as possible" and the object is to recover the staked money and return it to the bank as soon as possible. Season long bets are able to be traded but tie up capital for too long.

[The Real Moaner]

Thought I'd have another look at the markets today.

SL Rookie of the Year. I really rate Jonny Lomax who is coming through at Saints - for mine he can be better than Eastmond and Greg McNally looks a class act as well. However, I'm not sure how much game time both will get. The stand out looks to be Ben Jones Bishop. He can be electric going forward which will catch the eye and he will stand out in a poor Harlequins side. 12/1 is not the greatest price but I expect him to do well. Also, Bradford have a very thin squad so Elliot Whitehead or James Donaldson could be decent back up options at 20 and 14.

Man of Steel. Again, not the best price but I expect Keiron Cunningham to win this. Ryan Giggs anyone? KC has declared this to be his last season and he is pretty well liked by most. It's incredible he's never won it yet. P.S. - Would love to be able to lay some of the options! James Graham and Jamie Peacock at 6???

Without Leeds and Saints. Warrington looks a stand out at 4. Without Leeds Warrington are 6s and I think that's a good shout as I expect them to overcome Saints.

Albert Godthorpe Medal. This usually goes to a stand out player in an overachieving but relatively poor side. Some very attractive odds. Rangi Chase at 33s looks the stand out price, especially when compared to Brent Sherwin's price. Thomas Bosc at 20 and Matt Orford at 16 also stand out.

Bottom 6. Catalans at 5/2 and Bradford at 7/2 look stand outs.

Top 8 Finish. Salford at 8s look too large, whilst Cas / Wakey at 7/4 look decent shouts. I lean more towards Wakey as their squad is stronger on paper.

To Finish Bottom. Crusaders are 9/10. Some of their signings recently are "decent". They no longer look the absolute certs they did a few weeks ago. 9/10 for tying your money up for 6 months? The stand out price has to be Harlequins at 10. Rob Purdham is a HUGE loss for them as he gives them so much leadership and direction. Like Salford for the Top 8, it's unlikely but 10s looks too large. Their squad is weak on paper. Danny Orr is aging and Luke Dorn has never looked the player he was in his first year.

After today's game, I had a quick look at some of the prices available and have decided to reallocate today's earnings.

£20 on Quins to finish bottom at 10/1. Some have slashed their prices to 6. I had Quins down as losing this game anyway, so I don't feel this influences the odds. What does was the fact that Celtic looked decent last night and maybe aren't the 1.01 train I expected. I have Quins as 2nd favs to finish bottom, just ahead or level with Salford. On one level, I'd be amazed if they actually finish bottom. They have a good coach and I just can't see it. However, 10/1 is too big.

Ben Jones Bishop at 12/1 for Rookie of the Year. The problem with this award s that you don't have an exhaustive list of candidates and the winner will nearly always be someone you haven't heard of. However, BJB is an extremely talented player who can go far. His main strength is in attack and he scored twice today which will always capture the imagination. I'd have prefered "Young player of the year", but couldn't find that. It is very speculative, and I probably wouldn't bother but for a few beers this afternoon, but what the heck.

[The Real Moaner]

I seem to have acquired a new nickname and avatar so I'd best try to live up to it... :-)

So, after 2 games all season, my rookie of the year selection is now the clear favourite at 6/ having halved in price! Massive overreaction but I like that! On BF, I'd lay off by now for a free bet but not so sure SKY Bet will allow that! Just gutted that when I signed upto SKY Bet, I didn't get a free bonus!

SKY Bet have also been weird on the Bottom market, pushing Salford out to 6 and now bringing them into 5 when they are 3s in most places. Might be a touch of value there.

There is definitely value in Harlequins at 10/1 at Boylesports when everywhere else has reduced them to 5 or 6! Don't get that at all.

I'll probably look to recommend a couple of more bets on Wednesday when hopefully, I will find somewhere accepting bets on Season points totals! Although, I'm doubtful.

[smudger78]

Do you look at historic stats when evaluating games and if so where do you get them from as I've checked the SL site and its rubbish. Wanted to start doing some prep for this weekends games but struggling to find what i need...

[The Real Moaner]

Smudger - I'm starting to maintain a spreadsheet this year but usually no.

To be perfectly honest, I quite often just look to oppose recent form tables. (I'm working on a blog entry about this and wil hope to post it today / tomorrow.)

[The Real Moaner]

I have now written a post on my blog on how I try to approach a game.

For other people - I would be genuinely interested to know whether you would follow or disregard my general approach in any other sports that you may follow.

[The Real Moaner]

So three games into the season and whilst most of the pre season markets have closed, the Wooden Spoon market is still open and I believe there is huge value here.

I backed Quins at 10/1. This was highly speculative but the value was too great.

The current market is:

Salford - Evens
Crusaders - 5/2
Harlequins - 8/1
Catalans - 20/1
Hull KR - 25/1
Castleford - 28/1
Bradford - 66/1

My odds for the big three would be around.

Salford - 2/1
Crusaders - Evens
Harlequins - 5/1

I acknowledge the fact that all of the other teams have a chance of being bottom but would be very surprised for this to happen. Catalans are missing Thomas Bosc but their coach is on a short leash anyway so I think they will get going. Hull KR and Bradford were overrated pre season, but should have way too much quality whilst Castleford should have enough to easily avoid bottom.

So, what has happened to the market?

Basically - an overreaction to the points table. What concerns me is that I was high on Salford pre-season, have yet to see them in live action and maybe I am "missing something".

Salford have retained the majority of their 2009 squad. They have lost John Wilshere from the backline who did provide an element of quality, Richie Myler from the halves (Although I don't rate Myler highly and they did okay without him at the end of last year) and Craig Stapleton who provided genuine go forward up front. Robbie Paul and Jordan Turner have also been released but they had bit part roles.

Now, their 2010 signings are mainly young British players and there is no doubt that they lack experience and guile. However, this is fundamentally the same team that performed so well on occasions last year.

Maybe I am underestimating the loss of Richie Myler, but I believe that on their day, Salford can beat anyone in the comp. but have struggled from a slow start.

Crusaders meanwhile have an almost entirely new squad and I expected them to come together by mid season to be an average type of team, but Brian Noble has already lead them to two wins and you would have to think they will improve on that. However, I consider them to be "fluke" wins as such. They reversed Salford at home, but most of their tries came from kicks to a weak Salford defender whilst they managed to eek out an armwrestle against a Hull side missing Sean Long who is their only organisational player.

However, am I missing the Crusaders' quality? Have they developed into a competent team that can spring surprises.

The key point for me though is the odds on Harlequins who doubled in price after one victory over a very poor Catalans side who are also lacking an organisational player with Thomas Bosc out injured. Now, in the Quins' defence, they have the inspirational Rob Purdham and the creative Luke Dorn to come back from injiury which should help. However, Quins have a very lightweight pack and it is easy to see them getting steam rolled. In fact, the more I look at things, the harder I find their price to justify.

I tend to trade games as opposed to having season long bets which makes me wary of the market; especially when I have no game tape on Salford. But this market just seems way out of whack with my thoughts.

Has anyone seen anything to justify the current odds?

[The Real Moaner]

Interesting to look back on my posts from earlier this year and some of my initial thoughts.

Bradford - Bottom 8 at 7/2. Halfway through the season, this looked an awful call as Bulls were riding high in 4th. 10 successive losses later and they are outsiders to be in the Top 8. Did nothing with this call, and it's slightly fortunate that it came off.

Catalans - Bottom 8 at 5/2 or 9/4. Been at rock bottom for a while til today despite being huge for the Wooden Spoon (66?) at the start of the year. Incredibly inconsistent and fair to say this was a good call although I did nothing with this.

Salford - Top 8 at 8/1. Never looked like happening.

Hull - Top 8 at 4/7. Been around the top 4 since halfway through the year despite star player Sean Long being injured. Of course, tying up your money for 6 months on such a shot is not efficient.

Crusaders - To finish bottom at 10/11. I thought this was a cert but then they signed A LOT of new players. From not naming a squad until the Monday before the year to 8 or new 9 players? Were 25/1 or so for Top 8 and now are around an evens shot!

Handicap Market - Wigan and Crusaders are the real contenders here.

Winner without Saints and Leeds - Warrington are likely to be second to Wigan.

Top 8 Finish - Wakefield and Castleford at 7/4. Both have looked likely, but both have been inconsistent and now look only possible at best.

Albert Goldthorpe Medal - Chase is 7 points behind (Max. 3 pts per game). Not bad for a 33/1 shot. Orford and Bosc have both had injuries and not been brilliant.

I do think the key thing here is that so much is unknown at the start of the year and therefore most pre-season bets are never as good as they look.

And now, for the three bets I did place...

Man of Steel - I selected Keiron Cunningham at 14/1 who hasn't been great but could the Ryan Giggs effect still kick in? Doubtful. I also had to cover Kevin Sinfield as the online bookmaker would only take £18 on KC and that looks to have no chance.

Wooden Spoon - A few weeks back I noticed Quins still at 10/1, the price I initially backed them at, and thought this was too long. Now, they are bottom and possible favourites. I have laid off on Betfair to guarantee myself £60 post Premium Charge if they aren't bottom and £100 + £20 stake if they are.

Rookie of the Year - This is giving me sleepless nights! Quite franky, I have no idea who the candidates are but know that mine has 8 points despite being out injured for a while which is near or around the top. Of course, there is no opportunity to lay off. So I could be about to win £120 + £10 stake back, or nothing. I favour nothing, but not by much and am constantly checking to see who earns the points! (Josh Charnley, Jermaine McGillivray and Jodie Broughton appear to be building steam, whilst Elliott Kear could be a sentimental choice if he ever plays again this year.)

Still, at the least I will be £50 up. (Man of Steel was a free bet)