Temujins Victorian Greyhound Thread

[filthy_muck]

Mainly trading dogs but pretty marginal as to whether it is worth the time invested.


BFair have their own Greyhound model on the Hub but I really haven't looked to see if it is any good.

Good luck with your approach.

Filthy.

[Temujin]

Yeah, depends on how much you want to get on I guess.

Having trouble with the whole odds framing. As you can see, some pretty wild prices thrown up.

The ultimate aim is a set and forget which can frame a market and return a profit. I could spend some more time on each market and get better prices by working out why the prices are the way they are, but ultimately that goes against the goal.

As for getting set, because the concept here is to bet on every runner, it isn't hard to get set.
Lay bets are betting to a liability. So effectively there is not much difference between a dog rated 20.00 and a dog rated 10,000. For a 100 stake, one has a liability of 95, the other 99.9.

For the majority of markets, it will thrown up 3 or 4 back bets, meaning ultimately it is a win or lose proposition. For a 100 stake, typically win between 50 and 150 and lose between 50 and 150. Of course you get a decent priced winner, can win plenty more and that is where the most profit would come from (hypothetically speaking of course ).
Ultimately, it requires at least 1 in 2 races to be won by a dog selected as value to be in profit.

I have a spreadsheet set up, effectively all I have to do is enter the rated prices. As the timer hits zero it enters the bets, be they back or lay, with a takesp option.

I don't have the programming ability to be able to thoroughly test different scenarios, say only back the top 2 rated, or top rated, or any number of different options although I do aim to get there.

For now though, I just thought I would throw it out there. I included the "lengthsbehind" as that is where the prices come from, and was hoping somebody would come on board with a handicapping method that may be either useful, or provide my brain with another mode of thinking about the problem.

Been through most of the results of yesterday, not a pretty result so far. And because I put the card in early there were emergencies run which throws the prices around a little. But without sitting on the forum doing it live, close enough is good enough.

I do bet on this now and again, in this manner, but it means I have to stop my automated betting program from running, as I haven't worked out how to run them both at the same time yet and it is a good little earner.
Think I need to look into "thisworkbook" or active sheet or something. Bit beyond me just yet.


You trading the dogs or straight up punting them?

[filthy_muck]

Interesting concept Temujin.

I have found aussie greyhound markets highly erratic and very difficult to get set for other than very small coin.

If you are going to back or lay every runner you'll be very busy trying to get set at decent prices in the 20 seconds the market is at <102%.

[Temujin]

Been playing around with some ratings for Victorian greyhounds.

These are purely computer generated, and sometimes throw up some interesting numbers. Either way, going to document my ratings.
These are not for betting on, and I make no claims about their accuracy.
Will call this a hypothetical, to document, perhaps create discussion. My betting strategy (call it hypothetical) will be lay under, back over, so betting on every runner. Have a stake (say 200) divided by odds of ratings, that is the bet. ie rated 2.00, odds 10.00 available, 100 dollars on the nose. etc

Trading other things today, so missed the first part of the card.

But Sale today, Race 8 in 4 minutes. Probably do full card in future, but just to get in before they jump.... Work it out as I go.

Sale 8
Number Odds LengthsBehind
1 $28.58 11.69
2 $936.09 27.33
3 $13.10 8.19
4 $7.34 5.60
5 $176.47 19.85
6 $2.10 0.00
7 $48.65 14.07
8 $4.00 2.88
9
10


Sale 9
Number Odds LengthsBehind
1 $861.06 29.79
2 $154.14 22.08
3 $1.12 0.00
4 $34.67 15.39
5 $51.96 17.21
6 $148.30 21.91
7 $25.38 14.00
8 $339.03 25.61
9
10

Sale 10
Number Odds LengthsBehind
1 $77.87 19.24
2 $1.06 0.00
3 $108.88 20.74
4 $103.38 20.51
5 $528.38 27.82
6 $41.30 16.40
7 $660.80 28.83
8 $24,955.20 45.10
9
10


Sale 11
Number Odds LengthsBehind
1 $85.92 17.72
2 $119.03 19.18
3 $66.25 16.55
4 $1.65 0.00
5
6 $14.35 9.69
7 $82.16 17.51
8 $3.61 3.52
9
10

Sale 12
Number Odds LengthsBehind
1 $219.56 23.35
2 $201.00 22.96
3 $1.20 0.00
4 $40.13 15.74
5 $140.21 21.34
6 $12.20 10.40
7 $123.32 20.77
8 $29.75 14.39
9
10


Still working on how to generate the odds, but usually don't get such standouts, but see how it goes.

As I said, doing other things so not betting, will set up a comparison of results, SP and hypothetical betting position later.

Winging it.

SANDOWN

Sandown (SAP) 4
Number Odds LengthsBehind
1 $28.34 14.3
2 $28.32 14.3
3 $38.80 15.7
4 $214.60 23.4
5 $40.70 16.0
6 $94.17 19.7
7 $1.16 0.0
8
9
10

Sandown (SAP) 5
Number Odds LengthsBehind
1 $167.44 19.8
2 $4.29 3.4
3 $11.84 7.9
4 $7.53 5.9
5
6 $2.03 0.0
7 $63.90 15.5
8 $28.85 11.9
9
10

Sandown (SAP) 6
Number Odds LengthsBehind
1 $24.98 13.4
2 $419.73 26.1
3 $42.75 15.8
4 $36.71 15.1
5 $97.84 19.5
6 $14.88 11.1
7 $1.25 0.0
8 $33.91 14.8
9
10

Sandown (SAP) 7
Number Odds LengthsBehind
1 $32.08 14.4
2 $82.39 18.7
3 $1.28 0.0
4 $10,730.74 40.5
5
6 $8.73 8.6
7 $20.32 12.4
8 $101.11 19.6
9
10

Sandown (SAP) 8
Number Odds LengthsBehind
1 $5.64 4.2
2 $2.21 0.0
3 $5.44 4.0
4 $32.05 12.0
5 $8.91 6.3
6
7 $34.23 12.3
8 $76.10 15.9
9
10

Sandown (SAP) 9
Number Odds LengthsBehind
1 $8.88 4.7
2 $6.83 3.5
3 $8.00 4.2
4 $73.55 14.2
5 $20.08 8.4
6 $36.24 11.0
7 $3.10 0.0
8 $4.94 2.1
9
10

Sandown (SAP) 10
Number Odds LengthsBehind
1 $77.19 17.2
2 $39.19 14.2
3 $7.53 6.8
4 $11.84 8.8
5
6 $54.05 15.6
7 $8.16 7.1
8 $1.66 0.0
9
10

Sandown (SAP) 11
Number Odds LengthsBehind
1 $549.41 25.5
2 $23.98 11.4
3
4 $1.87 0.0
5
6 $3.41 2.7
7 $8.18 6.6
8 $156.54 19.8
9
10

Sandown (SAP) 12
Number Odds LengthsBehind
1 $2.65 0.0
2 $13.43 7.3
3 $15.77 8.0
4 $8.82 5.4
5
6 $144.31 17.9
7 $3.46 1.2
8 $13.22 7.2
9
10