Golf: The PGA

[WhyAlwaysMe]

Wow this seems like a good opportunity to take on Tiger. The preveiling wisdom is that this is a course that will reward accurate drivers, also it is not as long as some. Tiger was saying today there is a lot of double break on the greens so it may negate the skills of the magical putters somewhat.

The racing and footy comic has flagged up Johnson, Stenson and Poulter at 1pt and also Tim Clark and Jason Dufner for 0.5 pt bets.

I am thinking Lee Westwood at 36 has appeal too. At least as a back to lay jobbie.

Adam Scott is another obvious threat.

What do you guys think? I mostly back players on the golf as I prefer the limited liability of it. I only lay at odds under evens on the final day.

A lot of people have given up on Westwood having got burned so many times but on current form he ought to be around 25 for this. You could say the same about Sergio too but the putting can be so bad and Westwood did at least putt well at The Open.

[gun]

Every synapse in my tiny brain is saying lay Tiger again. I know it pays long term, and I doubt very much the PGA will make it easy for him (or anyone else) to card scores remotely like those seen last weekend. I also think last weekend's exploits have caused his price to go too low, so I am going to take him on again, laid £50 at 5.4.

The rest of my picks are below, but to be perfectly honest I've done precious little looking at recent form, the course or anything else about the tournament. So this is a bit of a 'tail on donkey' selection, as you will doubtless spot!

[WhyAlwaysMe]

Gun your going in mob handed! Most impressed with your clever staking math .

This is reputed to be one of Tiger's least favoured courses and he struggled here in 2003 only making 39th. All I've read says it is very unforgiving if you miss the fairway which Tiger does on occasion. I mean The Open suited him more than this course and he went off 11 there.




According to BBC Westwood lost The Open due to lack of tee accuracy more than the putting and he is only 42nd in the tee accuracy ratings so I'm crossing the Worksop wonder off.

I'm going Stenson on account of his good tee accuracy

http://content.usatoday.com/sportsdata/golf/pga/stats/leaders

and a good early tee time.


Other tips:

3 Balls go Stenson, Kaymer and Furyk.

Top South African - Clark 7.5

Top Irishman G-Mac 3.5

[gun]

According to BBC Westwood lost The Open due to lack of tee accuracy more than the putting and he is only 42nd in the tee accuracy ratings so I'm crossing the Worksop wonder off.

According to Gun, he lost because he's not, I'm afraid, a winner! I think as a back to lay, however, 38 / 40 is still a good trade, if not a good bet. I genuinely hope that I've got him wrong and that he does land a major. But that's my heart talking rather than my head. I watched his face standing on the 16th in the last round at Muirfield. All he had to do was to put it on the dancefloor to keep him alive, and then hope to kick on the momentum from there. His face said he was beaten, to me anyway, and if he had been at sensible odds I'd have laid him there and then. The shot was nowhere near...

[WhyAlwaysMe]

Yeah I know exactly what you mean Gun. The simple truth is he gets very tight, you can see the tension in the face as you say. I laid Rory on the first tee that time he blew a US major, you could see it in the face that day he was stiff as a board in his warm ups.

I'm swerving Westwood even for a back to lay. The thing is with this golf is you can out think yourself. I mean one thing is the unknown factor is high like weather or an outsider ripping it up. I'm sticking with Stenson for the winner market for now.

I like the Kaymar 3 ball bet and the G-Mac top Irish. In other words I'm taking on Rory. You feel with him he will either contend or hit a big score. Either I am beat but if not I'm in with a good chance, which is a situation I like.

[Thomson]

Course..
Forget the usual stats. The 4's are long and narrow. Short but accurate wont win, long and wide is dead. Pin seeker 2nd shots and decent par 3's will do it here and a putter that is good on marble....Sounds like Tigers all over this one but I would not back him.
Players..
No excuses for Tiger, big win last week so all's good. Where's his head though, moaning last week about the greens here, pressure for major 15, gonna be hard.
McIlroy defending, rumoured to go -7 on the back 9 in practice. Also knocked in a 67 here, good with irons but has demons. As for the rest you can make a case for any of them...Take your pick....

My bets.
Winner.....
Zach Johnson.....back 50 he has stuck there
Russell Henley....Back and laid for nice free-bet
Micheal Thompson...Back and laid for nice free-bet
Webb Simpsoon....Back and laid for OK free-bet

Tournament matchbet..
Z Johnson to beat Kutcher

To make cut..
loads in here, most significant
Rory McIlroy laid

Winning score
280 or higher
I reckon the greens will deteriorate by late Saturday and Sunday

[gun]

There are still a few holes left on the first day as I type this, with no moves from me thus far. I have to say it's looking all right at the moment. Adam Scott, Westy and Jiminez are all layable for reasonable profits now, but more importantly I don't feel anywhere near as exposed as I did last week as the Tiger has yet to bare his fangs!

Thomson, I hope you are OK with your Rory cut lay....thought that was a good shout when I read it. But here he sits at -2 on the 15th...

[Thomson]

Soft conditions have taken the sting from this course. More old man's weather due for today’s round, bit of wind and a dribble here and there. Lets hope the USGA can make it a little tougher for this major.

Gun appreciate the concern, sure my MTC market don't look great but I'm probably going to be OK overall by half way, maybe a bit under.
Your picks are thereabout and the Tiger lay seems to be about to pay out. Early days, more fun to come yet that's certain...

[WhyAlwaysMe]

Bagged a good win on the Kaymar 3 ball bet at 2.80 against Rory and VJ, which was my biggest bet so I am effectively free-rolling now.

I have a double running on Stenson top Swede and G-Mac top Irish so we will see.

Well done Gun for taming the Tiger you are a braver man than me!

[WhyAlwaysMe]

Rory's having a bit of a mare .

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vip704CK0uo

(From US Open)

[WhyAlwaysMe]

Correction - that should have read Lee Westwood .

Fair play to Rory, he roared back from double bogey bogey +4 to even on some of the hardest holes so you have to salute his mental fortitude.

Will we look back as this being the day it all turned round for him? He would have missed the cut but as things stand he could end up doing really well.

Amazing to think he is only one shot behind Westwood as Lee was -5 when Rory was +4.

[gun]

As a totally 'peace of mind' trade in anticipation of Tiger ripping the course up over the next two days I thought it prudent to take the 70's on offer and reduce my liability on him by half.

As for the rest... I think it's fair to say that of my original selections they're all blown now with the exception of Adam Scott. As the original lay of Tiger covered the £50 invested I'm happy to take my chances on him, and look for some swings in-play on day four.

I'm happy that I read Westy correctly. He was a good back to lay selection, and true to form he bottled it and I backed, but didn't lay when I should / could

[Thomson]

pass the remote...

[WhyAlwaysMe]

Good move on Tiger Gun. If he does roar back you could then take him on again.

Tim Clark has landed for me as top SA at 7.5 as he is the only one to make the cut. The Racing and Football Outlook really have called this tournament well.

[gurds]

Hi gunner and co. I'm not doing too badly on it either. Decided to lay TIGER pre tourny for £25 but got out way too soon really at 10s. Got green of £125 on Woods, £83.55 green on Scott, £100 green on Justin Rose, 123 on Stenson, etc.

I have total liab of 44 quid. I have decided to put an order in to lay the leader Jason Dufner for £50 at 5.4 (not matched yet, bit risky!) as he went 7 under par in one day alone yesterday tieing the course record! But I still don't think he will win.

One thing I have found very easy to do is once the market has gone in play (i.e. event has started) is to scalp players that I already have some green on and that haven't yet tee off. This is because their prices tend to be fairly stable. Like managed to scalp an extra £55 green on Woods yesterday and extra green on Stenson and Rose. You just have to be a bit careful when big money arrives not to just jump in front of it. Just be a little careful. But it is far easier to scalp this way than to scalp when they are actually playing as prices will be a hell of a lot more volatile. Was trying to scalp extra money on Adam Scott yesterday during the evening session (when he had finished playing), managed to take 2 ticks for an extra £20 but got greedy and went in again to get another £20, when that fecker Dufner took the lead out of nowhere! This only resulted in a smaller 2 tick drift on Scott though, so only lost one tick on that final scalp on Scott. I suggest you guys give it a try.