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Aintree Festival

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  • Aintree Festival

    It's day one at Aintree today and the racing is absolutely top notch. A lot has been made over the state of the ground which currently rides Good to Soft on both the Mildmay and National courses. The weather is expected to be nice and warm for the next few days and the clerk of the course has mentioned the possibility of watering at some stage - as a result it is too early to assess the National in any depth as the key to any horse's chance lies in the state of the ground.

    At this stage Backstage is the one that looks to be far too short in the betting for what he has actually achieved. Two recent point to point wins amount to little or nothing in terms of form, yet the 143-rated chaser is going to line up as around a 10 or 12/1 chance. Backers will point towards the fact that trainer Gordon Elliott has already trained a National winner in Silver Birch, but he was already a winner over the National fences and he also had a Welsh National to his name prior to taking the 2007 race. Jockey Paul Carberry rides Aintree particularly well (Over the National fences Ruby Walsh, Graham Lee, Barry Geraghty and Paul Carberry should be followed) so Backstage will not lack assistance from the saddle but I think that this is a massive ask for him - he is actually win less under rules since August 2009.

    Don't Push It (Weight) and each of The Midnight Club, Silver By Nature and Oscar Time (If fast ground prevails) look opposable at this stage, the three I would side with at present would be What A Friend, Arbor Supreme and Calgary Bay. The current offer of 5/1 for What A Friend to go off favourite looks fair, particularly if it does stay dry and they do not water. Trainer Paul Nicholls has every chance of getting off to a flyer today and sustained support for his Gold Cup fourth will see WAF's odds tumble come race time.

    Recommendations lay Backstage @ 14.5

    Back What A Friend to start favourite with Totesport or Sportingbet @ 5/1


    Thursday picks;

    2.00 Big Bucks / Carlito Brigante, Big Bucks / Karabak CSFs (Currently 7.43 / 17.13)

    2.30 Third Intention, Zarkandar

    3.05 Nacarat

    3.40 Fort View, Turko

    4.15 Sports Line, Pepsyrock

    4.50 Tharawaat, Royal Charm

    5.25 Sire Collonges, Russian George

    Be lucky

  • #2
    hi it may be totally off topic but is there some kind of horse racing 'calendar'?
    i always get f**** in the a**** when these special meetings happen so i would like to leave out those days


    • #3
      Originally posted by harvy666 View Post
      hi it may be totally off topic but is there some kind of horse racing 'calendar'?
      i always get f**** in the a**** when these special meetings happen so i would like to leave out those days
      This should do you


      • #4
        Quite a lot of 'casualties' in Baby Runs race, just thinking about the Topham
        tomorrow, maybe, like Baby Run, the front runners may avoid carnage? (3.40)

        (3.05) If going on top, can be against Master Minded in place mkt.

        Cards look seriously 'tough' easy money


        • #5
          Originally posted by Ted View Post
          Quite a lot of 'casualties' in Baby Runs race, just thinking about the Topham
          tomorrow, maybe, like Baby Run, the front runners may avoid carnage? (3.40)
          Looking at the Topham, Mon Parrain looks short enough at 5/1 - sure he won doing handstands last time but he's up a stone, in a better race and has the National fences to contend with. As always there is no point laying unless opposition can be found. Frankie Figg and Always Waining are two that look set to front run, there has to be a big question mark as to whether either will get round though.

          Originally posted by Ted View Post
          (3.05) If going on top, can be against Master Minded in place mkt.
          Master Minded's season started back in November and he has always shown his best form on ground with plenty of cut. He failed to see out the trip in this race two years ago (After a breathtaking win in the Queen Mother on his previous start) and after a lacklustre effort three weeks ago it looks the percentage call to take him on. He'll trade at 6/4 for a place or thereabouts and unless there's rain you can probably fill your boots with a place lay. Keep an eye on the ground - before racing and after the first.

          Originally posted by Ted View Post
          Cards look seriously 'tough' easy money
          That depends on your approach. Pepsyrock was a stonking result for me today after the pre-race 55 hit a low of between 3 and 4 in running. If you just straight bet selections it's a tricky enough meeting, although today saw only one real blow-out result and that came in the last.

          Onto the middle day


          • #6
            Day 2 of 3

            Another cracking card which kicks off at 2.00 today. My two for each race are as follows;

            2.00 - Alarazi, Brampour

            2.30 - Quito De La Roque, The Giant Bolster

            3.05 - French Opera, Tartak

            3.40 - Shakalakaboomboom, Dev

            4.15 - Four Non Stop, Westmeath

            4.50 - Sir Harry Ormesher, Golden Chieftan

            5.25 - Eyesontheprize, Heather Royal

            The going at Aintree is now described as Good, Good to Soft in places and the clerk of the course is planning to water after racing today in time for the showpiece tomorrow.

            All of the money this morning has been for Don't Push It and he's only an 11/4 shot to be sent off jolly for the big one. What A Friend is 7/1 from the 5/1 that I highlighted yesterday, as always Pricewise could have a massive impact on the market so for the time being I won't go back in.

            Have fun in the sun everyone


            • #7
              Stunned by Masterminded easy win, 2+2 didn't make 4, for me.

              Fair play to those who backed it, very easy win.

              Er.............need a winner ...


              • #8
                Originally posted by Ted View Post
                Stunned by Masterminded easy win
                He was entitled to put up that kind of performance but nobody really saw it coming - as the SP of 11/2 confirmed!

                Cheltenham obviously left it's mark on the likes of Albertas Run, Kalahari King and Somersby, whereas (As Ruby mentioned pre-race) Master Minded was not given a hard time of it when his chance in the Queen Mother had gone.

                Time wise it was a quicker race today than Voy Por Ustedes' victory over MM two years ago, so it's decent ground out there today.

                Originally posted by Ted View Post
                Er.............need a winner ...
                Hope you layed Mon Parrain!


                • #9
                  Hehe when I saw the runners on the race where master minded also ran, I thought, who in their right mind would back the other horses with master minded on the race at the price he was :P Good opportunities for dutching though


                  • #10
                    Final day of a great Festival

                    It's the big one today, money will be flying around as the once a year punters come out to play.

                    Don't let the prices put you off in the National - anything could happen and it usually does! There will be plenty of trading opportunities when the tape goes up - odds can shift for things like a horse's name getting a mention, hectic stuff.

                    Quito De La Roque delivered the goods yesterday but my best result came in the race where both Sir Harry Ormesher and Golden Chieftan turned in with a chance before fading.

                    Today's runners;

                    1.45 - Cue Card, Rebel Rebellion

                    2.15 - Ghizao

                    2.50 - Celestial Halo

                    3.25 - Great Endeavour, Tarablaze

                    4.15 - Arbor Supreme, Calgary Bay

                    5.00 - Praxiteles, Far Away So Close

                    5.35 - Steps To Freedom, Grandioso

                    I wish everyone luck on this massive day for racing, lets hope that all the horses and jockeys come back safe and sound.

                    Be lucky


                    • #11
                      I'd like to join in the wishes for a safe National for both horse's and jocks today.
                      Got the ante-post market green for small change (smug sod) with nice free bets on these in pocket preference:

                      Big Fella Thanks
                      Majestic Concorde
                      Silver By Nature
                      Don't Push It

                      Don't think I've got the winner in that bunch though.
                      Going for Tidal Bay 20/30 win + place...


                      • #12
                        Non runner!

                        Royal Rebellion doesn't go in the first - sub in the top one, Bold Sir Brian.

                        I was sweet on BFT until the ground has come up like this, I think it will catch any number of these out. Why there is such a buzz for the plodder Silver By Nature I don't know! Had it come up bottomless he'd be in the mix-up but he's surely going to get taken off his feet.

                        Good luck with Tidal Bay - what a monkey he is! Started out at 2m, fell out of love with that. Stepped up in trip since - he only goes when he wants to nowadays!

                        The 2.50 is the race of the day for me. I think Celestial Halo is certain to trade shorter than his current 12.5. He was around 11/8 in running when crashing out here last year and his style of racing should see him creep in to the race travelling well. Binocular is coming from two months off and he has the poor effort last time and 2m4f to overcome, 2/5 for a 1-2-3 finish looks like lay material. Oscar Whisky and Peddlers Cross will not be fresh but both want further than the 2m that they tackled in the Champ Hurdle at Cheltenham. I am looking forward to seeing how this one works out.


                        • #13
                          Tidal Bay

                          I'm with Thomson with this one. A monkey he may be but what a talented monkey, would be king of the monkeys if he was really one. Big fences might get him thinking about them rather than racing and he doesnt half see out the end of his races on occassions. 6th in gold cup is fair form and is my selection, a saver on Vic Venturi just in case


                          • #14
                            Back to Lay an entertaining area in races where fallers guaranteed, the

                            donkey 'rags' can 'take out' some fancied runners, it's just whether a couple

                            of my 'team' are still in biz, come the 2nd circuit......finger will be hovering

                            on the green up button.

                            Have decided to back Nickies 2 in the 2.50.

                            Have a good day lads !


                            • #15
                              Congradulations to EmKay with 2 tremendous winners So Close & Steps to Freedom ! Big prices.

                              Also performed with credit at Chelt.