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King George, Boxing Day

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  • King George, Boxing Day

    All eyes will be on four-time winner Kauto Star when the tape goes up Kempton on Boxing Day, it's the same scenario as previous years in that he is a short priced favourite and it's double figures bar three;

    Kauto Star - Needs no introduction. This four-time King George winner also has two Cheltenham Gold Cups, three Betfair Chases and two Tingle Creeks in the bag. Usual partner Ruby Walsh is sidelined, his reappearance at Down Royal turned out to be what looked like a workmanlike performance but he will have come on a ton for that run and he will be raring to go come Boxing Day. Hard to beat. 2.3

    Long Run - Only a 5yo, ex-French. Won here on Boxing Day last year (Feltham Novices Chase) in a time some 8 secs slower than Kauto Star's winning effort over the same distance. Dropped back to 2m at Warwick afterwards, when connections were deciding upon a tilt at either the RSA Chase or Arkle at the Festival. They opted for the former and Long Run finished a tired 3rd on ground which would have been the fastest that he had encountered. 2/1f for the 18 runner Paddy Power Gold Cup a few weekends ago, he disappointed with his jumping and ran out of petrol on the run in. Won a stack of races on the flat, left handed course at Auteuil in his native France and he has now disappointed twice at Cheltenham, so the theory that he does not want an undulating track may be the correct one. Must jump better and could do with some professional assistance in the saddle for me. 7.8 and Pricewised in Tom Segal's ante post preview today.

    Imperial Commander - Paddy Power Gold Cup winner, Ryanair Chase winner and Cheltenham Gold Cup winner at the Gloucestershire track, this fellow can only boast two wins under rules away from Prestbury Park - at Newcastle in 2007 (Bog standard Class 4 Hurdle) and last time out in the Betfair Chase at Haydock (Won well). Form figures away from the Cleeve Hill track read 136P25U1. Has disappointed behind Kauto Star twice previously here now - in '08 he faded after the turn in (Explanation 'Muck in lungs') and last year he was hampered at the second fence and later stayed on through beaten horses to take 5th (Beaten over 60l). A cut which he received in his Haydock race has hindered his preparation and connections have yet to confirm his participation, however the fact that the Gold Cup winner is currently 9 to back suggests that enough people out there do not see him acting on Kempton's speedy chase track. Would be near enough favourite if this race was staged at Cheltenham. 9.0

    Forpadydeplasterer - Smart 2 miler who won the Arkle at Cheltenham in 2009 and ran second in the Queen Mother Champion Chase there in March. Since his Arkle win his form figures read 2222222, to his credit the list of race winners include Albertas Run and Twist Magic. Has been tried twice over 2m4f and seemed to get home on both occasions, as with my comments towards Barbers Shop in the race last year - it is an easy-ish track to stay on and speedier horses tend to get trips at Kempton. Entered in the Lexus and will be attempting 3m for the first time in one race or the other, according to trainer Thomas Cooper. 14.0

    Riverside Theatre - 6yo who ran well in his prep races last season but disappointed at the Cheltenham and Punchestown festivals (5th in Arkle, fell in Ireland). Of his seven wins to date, four have come at Kempton although he has yet to be tried beyond 2m4 1/2f, the trip he won over last time out. Subject of an ante-post move this week, his trainer Nicky Henderson also has Burton Port, Mad Max, Long Run and Punchestowns left in at this stage, so running plans have seemingly yet to be confirmed. 15.5

    Sizing Europe - Former smart hurdler who won the Arkle in March and was runner up to Kauto Star at Down Royal on November 6th. Did not jump fluently that day and he was closely matched with a 152-rated animal in China Rock. Trainer Henry de Bromhead has been quoted as saying "We're leaning towards running him at Kempton" (i.e. Lexus is the alternative). Class horse on his day but probably had his chance to overturn Kauto at Down Royal and his run that day did nothing to suggest that he truly sees out staying distances. 17.5

    Nacarat - Front running grey who acts well around here, with a Racing Post Chase (Handicap) win and second in his locker. Won first time up this season in the Grade 2 Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby (Race conditions worked in his favour) but then he disappointed slightly when finishing some 11 1/2 lengths off Imperial Commander in the Betfair Chase at Haydock next time. Wants good or good to soft ground according to trainer Tom George, however on the overall balance he has plenty to find with some of these. 21.0

    Planet Of Sound - The same comments apply to POS as they did to Nacarat - he put in some creditable efforts last season but his reappearance at Haydock was a disappointment (9 1/4l away from Imperial Commander). Has a Haldon Gold Cup (Grade 2, 2m2f) and a Guinness Gold Cup (Grade 1, 3m1f) in his trophy cabinet and so versatile with regards to trip, however trainer Philip Hobbs had pointed to the ground for his Haydock flop, stating decent ground would be a "Big plus" at Kempton. 22.0

    Official ratings of the market leaders

    Kauto Star 190
    Long Run 162
    Imperial Commander 185
    Forpadydeplasterer 167
    Nacarat 158
    Riverside Theatre 160
    Sizing Europe 160
    Planet Of Sound 163

    Of the others;

    Burton Port (75) has an entry for the Welsh National at Chepstow on Dec 28th - a decision will be made when his new handicap mark is confirmed

    Punchestowns (70) is hoping to get a prep run so his participation is apparently somewhat weather dependant

    What A Friend (330) will proabably head to Ireland to defend his Lexus title

    Albertas Run (70) ran flat at Aintree first time up and then took a horrible fall last time. He joins the queue of horses who want good ground.

    Deep Purple (140) will only run here if the Peterborough at Huntingdon is abandoned for any reason

    Catch Me (1000) and Tranquil Sea (310) are two of a whole list of horses who are entered up at this stage but who will defect on December 7th (Add Captain Cee Bee (200), Glencove Marina (320), Cooldine (190), Kempes (230) & J'y Vole (220) ).

    Summary - A typically competitive look to the race on paper at this stage, with Kauto Star favourite to take the race for a record fifth time. His price is unlikely to change much between now and race time, especially with Pricewise having put the second favourite Long Run up today as a 7/1 win bet selection.
    With 22.0 on offer and any number of these expected to come out of the race between now and race day, I would be tempted to take a price about Planet Of Sound as this is his obvious target and he could easily get his ground. If any of Imperial Commander (Injury), Forpadydeplasterer (Alternative engagement), Sizing Europe (Alternative engagement) or Riverside Theatre (Stable fully entered-up) come out, the selection's price can only go down. Throw in the fact that he is as low as 14/1 in a couple of places already and I think we could be cooking on gas come Boxing Day.

    Recommendation - Back Planet Of Sound @ 22.0

    Keep warm and be lucky

  • #2
    hello emkay hope you were on workforce at longchamp as we discussed on chat after the kg run - fabulous price

    the one i'd be interested in is what a friend here although like you stated more than likely a non runner. i think kempton would suit this horse well. as it does nacarat although i expected him to fail in betfair chase for 2 reasons 1. he's narrow 2. needed a bigger break.

    sizing europe i think will fare better at kempton than down royal which i think takes some getting, far more than kempton anyway and looks a live danger at bigger odds along with long run.

    i really wish what a friend would run because this horse in my opinion can prove a real danger to the short priced favourite.

    planet of sound i've not made my mind up about him yet although like you stated his price seems generous.

    sorry about the caps gota few keys not working and too tight to get them fixed/ replaced. nice review by the way.


    • #3
      Kauto Star - price

      The Magic Machine goes just 1.99 Kauto Star this morning, however as I am sure a number of you had already noticed - our friends at William Hill are a stand-out 11/10.

      They guarantee to be best priced about the Fav right up to race day, so (Depending on what they allow in terms of stakes) snap up the price and lay it back once the market starts moving.

      If they do not race on 26th Dec the race will be moved to 27th - if that is off (Which could be considered 50/50 at this stage) they will look to re-locate to another Grade 1 track. It would be interesting to see this run at Cheltenham on New Years Day!

      Be lucky


      • #4
        Arb there again now 12.08 o'clock. It vanished for a while....


        • #5
          Sorry 14.08 time


          • #6
            Guys do you maybe know which times of the week there are horse races. I saw there werent any trough the weekend and today monday also nothing. Just some poor liquidity markets. Is it becouse its now pause for horse racing or just never over weekends and mondays or why?


            • #7
              it's snowing
              If you want more luck... Take more chances!


              • #8
                Thank you! So that means big horse races are every day in the week usually than?


                • #9
                  Yes, here's a list:

                  If you want more luck... Take more chances!


                  • #10
                    Thank you!


                    • #11
                      Update - 21/12/10

                      The field has cut up since the preview, but 14 stand their ground at this stage;

                      1. Albertas Run 38.0
                      2. Burton Port 30.0
                      3. Forpadydeplasterer 17.0
                      4. Kauto Star 2.02
                      5. Long Run 6.6
                      6. Madison Du Berlais 100.0
                      7. Nacarat 19.5
                      8. Noland 120.0
                      9. Ollie Magern 720.0
                      10. Planet Of Sound 30.0
                      11. Riverside Theatre 15.0
                      12. Sizing Europe 16.0
                      13. The Nightingale 48.0
                      14. What A Friend 65.0

                      It's still a quiet market, with snow forecast it is likely that the race may have to be run at somewhere other than Kempton Park - so punters are holding fire on placing their bets.

                      News on some of the runners;

                      Burton Port now intends to take up his engagement here as opposed to Cheptow (Where he was taken out of the Welsh National)

                      Forpadydeplasterer & Sizing Europe are expected to run (Providing the weather allows both to make the trip over from Ireland)

                      Kauto Star is said to be on course for the race, apparently he has not been forced to miss any work at home in Ditcheat

                      Noland finished second on Kempton's all weather surface this afternoon. Trainer Paul Nicholls was 'Chuffed to bits' with the run and providing he comes out of the race OK, he will return to Kempton for this on Sunday

                      What A Friend will run right handed for the first time in this if he cannot travel over to Ireland for the Lexus. The ground must also be 'Good' for him to run

                      On the other hand, The Nightingale will only run if the ground is 'Soft' - according to Paul Nicholls

                      Riverside Theatre and second favourite Long Run are also confirmed runners for Nicky Henderson

                      David Pipe confirms that 100/1 shot and last year's second Madison Du Berlais will again be aiming for the prize money

                      It's a Christmas cracker folks, enjoy!

                      The recommendation stands - Be on the Planet Of Sound (30.0 now) for a back > lay ride (IR)


                      • #12
                        Nacarat for me. Beaten by Imperial Commander but didn't "spit out his dummy" and tried to run on. Had him in a double with Massini's Maguire when he last won. Seems to be a horse to follow. If he doesn't win on Boxing Day, no problems as he will win more races at good prices and I'm sure he'll be profitable in the long run.

                        Would be nice if Kauto Star won but I can't see it happening. Very unpredictable conditions and a front runner could screw things up for all the others who may be too busy watching each other to realise that he is a class act.


                        • #13
                          In there pitching!

                          Nacarat has a good a chance as any in this - the worry for me would be how easily he was brushed aside last year. Kauto came there cruising on the home turn, then both Madison Du Berlais and Barbers Shop stayed on for the money when Nacarat's tank hit empty. He is definitely a 'Rhythm' horse - the jockey just needs to save something for the home straight this time around!

                          My worry for the Fav is the new jockey, Noel Fehily. The horse can make the odd blunder and in Ireland last time he did require the odd bit of stoking-up, so it's crucial that NF knows what to do and when. The 11/10 with Hills is pretty generous all things considered though and a plunge should see him go off at 8/11 or 4/6, somewhere around that sort of offer. Let's face it, if he turns up in the form that we know he is capable of it won't matter who's doing the steering - they won't see which way he went!

                          I just read that Burton Port is likely to come out because of the ground, leaving Albertas Run as the only representative for owner Trevor Hemmings.

                          Ho ho ho


                          • #14
                            McCoy in for Kauto !

                            Noel Fehily has stood himself down from race riding in order to have an operation - so the plum ride on King George favourite Kauto Star has been offered to BBC Sports Personality Of The Year winner AP McCoy!!

                            Other news today was that Noland has defected from the event, he goes to Cheltenham on New Years Day for a 2m5f handicap instead.



                            • #15
                              McCoy is the greatest jump jockey I have ever seen and I have seen a great many. Nevertheless, I attach no importance to his booking as I feel that if Kauto Star is "right", any of the jockeys would win on him. I just have a feeling that his time is up and that he is very poor value at his present price.

                              Nacarat is my strongest fancy but I am turning more and more to think that Long Run has a chance too. As has been said above, both have been seen to be vulnerable and have been "in and out" with their form. Saying that, Kauto Star makes mistakes, especially towards the end of his races and I have a gut feeling that he will not finish the race.

                              I was convinced that Imperial Commander would win the Gold Cup and I tipped him and backed him but I believe that he is not the type to win a King George. Cheltenham and Kempton are very different tracks.

                              I don't think that any of the others can come anywhere near to winning this race but, we would all look incredibly stupid if Alberta's Run was to win, especially with McCoy on something else.