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  • Cheltenham Ante Post Plays

    It's only a few weeks until Cheltenham so I thought that I would take the opportunity to review a few of the Ante Post markets to see if we can find some good old fashioned value.

    The Gold Cup does look to be a match between the mighty Denman and the classier Kauto Star barring accidents and the race is best left alone on that basis.

    The Champion Hurdle is as open as I can remember one being. Question marks over how good last year's renewal was have been aired in recent weeks Ė Winner Punjabi, runner-up Celestial Halo and third Binocular have not set the world alight yet this season and as a result horses like Medermit and dual winner Khyber Kim are prominent in the market. The Irish will have Solwhit and Go Native as their big hopes and there is a chance (Albeit a small one) that the novice Dunguib will take on the more experienced horses rather than tackle the opening Supreme Novices. Triumph Hurdle winner Zaynar remains unbeaten over hurdles and he looks to be the best of the English runners although Triumph Hurdle winners had a terrible race until recent years (Katchit won both, Celestial Halo won Triumph / 2nd Champion). Looking at the prices, double figures about Celestial Halo does look tempting Ė his form figures at Cheltenham are 122 and you can probably forget about his last run in Ireland because of the soft / heavy ground. In hindsight he could not have afforded to give a horse like Khyber Kim 4lb on soft ground as he attempted to in December but on genuine good ground Celestial Halo is a different proposition. 23 is on offer and that looks huge. We just need a dry spell to collect as the price is bound to shorten come race day.

    It is normally a good idea to see what turns up for the Champion Bumper rather than get involved in the Ante Post market (Some horses wait for Aintree, some for Punchestown) however I have been pointed in the direction of Araucaria following her win at Punchestown over Christmas. Charlie Swan apparently holds Lonesome Dove in high regard (4th that day beaten 30+ lengths) and Araucaria's trainer says she is the best he has trained. The horse has had 3 starts Ė winning two and finishing second on the other occasion (Winner For Bill is 7/7 under rules to date). It is always an open race but 14/1 (Ladbrokes are currently better than BF??!) looks worth an interest for a horse that could turn out to be very useful indeed. Dermot Weld has two horses at the head of the market and it is doubtful that both will turn up so 14 could easily be 6 or 7 on the day.

    The final selection that I am going to put forwards today is another from the all-conquering Paul Nicholls' stable. In the RSA Chase hisInchidaly Rock is simply too big at 25/1 (Again, the BF market is quiet). There are doubts about this ones participation as he could be re-directed towards the National Hunt Chase (4m for Novices) but looking at the entries Nicholls has both Forest Pennant and Massasoit entered up for that event too, the latter would be a live contender based on his Saturday run at Sandown. Given that PFN was happy enough for Inchidaly Rock to take his chance in the recent Gold Cup trial rather than keep him in Novice company (Started Fav, fell when travelling very well), you would have to assume that he is well thought of. It would therefore be unlikely that he would tackle the 'Novices National' which is a race where anything can happen. He is only 14/1 in some places for the RSA and that looks more like it. Note that Denman and What A Friend have represented the stable in this race over recent seasons.

    Summary

    Celestial Halo @ 23 Ė Too big especially if the ground dries up to anything other than soft

    Araucaria @ 14/1 (14 BF...) - The word is that she is something special

    Inchidaly Rock @ 25/1 (25 for pennies on BF) - Overpriced and overlooked, cracking E/W

    Good luck all

  • #2
    Best of luck mate. I tried to build a portfolio last year and it wasnothing short of a complete disaster so I'm not bothering this time around. I'll keep my eye on yours though, fingers crossed for some big green come March!

    Comment


    • #3
      Love the write up Emkay, The RSA Chase is one that Iím looking forward to this year.
      Certainly will be some promising future stars in the line up as always.
      Been having an interest in this for a while now and my money is on
      Diamond Harry, Pandorama, with just a few bob on Bensalem which seems to me to have the makings of a fine chaser but needs to learn his craft quickly if heís to take on these quality horseís.

      Whatever the outcome it will be a privilege to watch.

      Comment


      • #4
        MK

        Not wishing to hijack your thread mate. Your race summary skills far outweigh mine.

        Do you wish us to append our Ante Post picks and see how we fare at the end of the festival?

        I'm sure some keen youngblood will put up a Chelters competition nearer the time, but perhaps we should run an Ante Post one as well.

        btw I'm not up for keeping score or anything as dangerous as that.
        Do not go where the path may lead, go instead where there is no path and leave a trail.

        Comment


        • #5
          Each Chelt race is damn difficult to trade, on the day, because the markets are all mature and settled

          the graphs are a straight line !

          B nice to know potential drifters/shorteners to take a position on now, & trade out later.

          As always, not that easy, have to be aware of several entries for some not sure what event they target,

          non-runners, injured on gallops, lame on day, total loss of form for a top yard, etc not a easy area.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Ted View Post
            Each Chelt race is damn difficult to trade, on the day, because the markets are all mature and settled

            the graphs are a straight line !
            That's the main thing I like about trading those markets , can stick masses into the pot either side of the spreads without worrying about sharp movements, just let the natural ebb and flow fill both sides. Closer to the off you always get movement but luckily the shear weight of money means they're usually easy to spot or at least get out without too much damage.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Ted View Post
              B nice to know potential drifters/shorteners to take a position on now, & trade out later.
              Must always be kept in mind that Betfair ante-post market is separated from the ďday of raceĒ market. Therefore a large bank will be required should you wish to lay off any bets after the ante-post market has been closed. Having said that ante-post wagers can be very profitable as reflected in the priceís availableÖ

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Thomson View Post
                Love the write up Emkay, The RSA Chase is one that Iím looking forward to this year.
                Certainly will be some promising future stars in the line up as always.
                Been having an interest in this for a while now and my money is on
                Diamond Harry, Pandorama, with just a few bob on Bensalem which seems to me to have the makings of a fine chaser but needs to learn his craft quickly if heís to take on these quality horseís.

                Whatever the outcome it will be a privilege to watch.
                It's a cracker - Punchestowns would be the classiest Hurdler to go chasing this year and his stable mate Long Run had already racked up winnings of £600k at Auteuil before the Waley-Cohen's came in for him. Long Run holds an entry over 2m at Warwick on Saturday so the Arkle may be the more likely target, time till tell (9s for Arkle, 6 for RSA). Diamond Harry looked like the horse to trouble Big Bucks in the World Hurdle on his Haydock run but they took him on at Newbury and were firmly put in their place. He won well enough in his first Chase start (Again at Haydock) and there should be plenty more to come from him in time. Give in the ground would aid his cause. Pandorama could be anything but at 14s there is little room for movement - I only put up Inchidaly on the basis that if his target is confirmed as the RSA he would go to around 12-15. Bensalem has a bit to find with the best of these but the race does tend to throw up the odd strange result, it's all about jumping and staying!

                I agree that this has the makings of a great renewal - It used to be renowned as a graveyard for Novices until the likes of Florida Pearl and Denman graduated successfully.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Mickey Pearce View Post


                  Do you wish us to append our Ante Post picks and see how we fare at the end of the festival?
                  Go for it!

                  The three that I have put up are not necessarily win bet material, more back > lay...

                  Hows about a theoretical £100 to put on as many (or few) selections as each bod likes? No closing out either - just £100 split into win stakes across the markets. Most profit wins.

                  Sort the settling out later - stick the current BF price up when posting and no cheating

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Emkayracing View Post
                    Go for it!

                    The three that I have put up are not necessarily win bet material, more back > lay...

                    Hows about a theoretical £100 to put on as many (or few) selections as each bod likes? No closing out either - just £100 split into win stakes across the markets. Most profit wins.

                    Sort the settling out later - stick the current BF price up when posting and no cheating
                    oklay doklay - here is my modest effort (all at BF prices)

                    Supreme Novices Hurdle - Peddlars Cross £10 @ 36.0

                    Arkle Trophy - An Cathaoir Mor £10 @ 80.0

                    Champion Hurdle - Rock Noir £10 @ 340.0

                    Queen Mother Champion Chase - Free World £10 @ 75.0

                    World Hurdle - Diamond Harry £10 @ 120.0

                    Triumph Hurdle - Baccalaureate £10 @ 90.0

                    Gold Cup - Money Trix £10 @ 180.0

                    3 more to come.
                    Do not go where the path may lead, go instead where there is no path and leave a trail.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Emkays Effort

                      Arkle - Tataniano £15 @ 17.5

                      Champion Hurdle - Celestial Halo £15 @ 21

                      NH Chase - Massasoit £20 @ 18

                      World Hurdle (Without Big Bucks) - Powerstation £30 @ 10

                      Ryanair - Takeroc £10 @ 90

                      Gold Cup (Without Denman & Kauto Star) - My Will £10 @ 44

                      Good luck all

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        This is so off the wall I donít know if I should even post it here, however the festival loves a good story and this is certainly up there.

                        Following a 40-hour journey half-way across the world, trainer Anthony Cosgriff is pleased with the progress of Gorge and Onajet as the pair prepare to become the first Australian-trained runners at the Cheltenham Festival.
                        Both horses arrived in Britain on Friday and are settling in at at Mark Johnston's stables in North Yorkshire.
                        Gorge is the one Iím showing an interest in. He is being aimed at the three-mile £100,000 Grade One Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle on totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Day, Friday, March 19.

                        Gorge will have a prep run in a shorter than ideal 2m ľ at Kelso on March 6th.
                        This horse is certainly a worthy contender for the Cheltenham race and connections are pushing the boat out for him.
                        The main point is that press interest will be with him, so a good run at Kelso would see some movement in his price. Bookies range from 25-50, Betfair has very little money available at present. Iíve had 80-85 matched for small stuff, so if any of you layers out there would care to take my £4 @ 90 that would make my day.
                        But seriously this runner is worth keeping an eye on, I doubt the horse will be good enough on the day but he could do a lot of talking before the off..

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Arkle chase on the first day of the festival BEDLAM BOY 85-1.Heard postive vibes about this horse,could be bull---t but at that price i am willing to find out £10 e/w.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Mickey Pearce View Post
                            oklay doklay - here is my modest effort (all at BF prices)

                            Supreme Novices Hurdle - Peddlars Cross £10 @ 36.0

                            Arkle Trophy - An Cathaoir Mor £10 @ 80.0

                            Champion Hurdle - Rock Noir £10 @ 340.0

                            Queen Mother Champion Chase - Free World £10 @ 75.0

                            World Hurdle - Diamond Harry £10 @ 120.0

                            Triumph Hurdle - Baccalaureate £10 @ 90.0

                            Gold Cup - Money Trix £10 @ 180.0

                            3 more to come.
                            RSA Chase - Tazbar £10 @ 26.0

                            Champion Bumper - Made In Time £10 @ 30.0

                            Ryanair chase - Petit Robin £10 @ 210.0

                            Good Luck.
                            Do not go where the path may lead, go instead where there is no path and leave a trail.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Are we any wiser about the RSA after yesterday or not. Long Run wins by 12 over a mile short in trip. Great performance and Iím a fan but will it be the RSA or the Arkle?
                              Owner sayís he wont decide until five day decs so who knows, one thing for sure itís a good horse. Iím not on because of the doubt in race, but I also think the price for the RSA is poor value. Long Run was not that great at his fences, and Cheltenham is stiffer, and how will Long Run fit in with a bigger field? I think if you feel this is the winner then you will probably get better value in-running at some stage. Can see him making a couple of jumping errors and probably be available at 10ís whilst recovering.

                              Diamond Harry v BensalemÖThe blunder 5 out by Bensalem did no one any good, least of all the punters. Diamond Harry was running within himself before the blunder and more so after it. Good heart shown by the runner up but the winner had his measure. Small fields are never satisfactory and both will benefit from a more open contest.

                              Iím looking to green out on Bensalem, sticking with Diamond Harry for now but maybe go in again on Pandorama who is looking to have some value now.

                              Comment

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