3rd January late afternoon picks

[ron]

Lingfield 2.20 Harry Buckle, this will feature during the race odds are currently 5.4 from an opening 4.00 think it will shorten before the off, so tempted to back it now, going on its previous Runs at this distance it will front run, maybe lead and maintain that. Back/lay

Lingfield 3.20 Muhandis, Tried and tested at this 7f distance Slowly away type, likely to be mid division for the 1st 2/3 furlongs before being asked in the final 2
Back/lay
Ayr 3.00 Pas Trop Tard, won previous 2 Novice this is a step in distance and i think it will lose so will be monitoring it during the race ready to lay, hopefully around 2.00/.50 Lay to Back

Wolves 3.05 Epic Storm, likely to be held up during the race has won on CD 3 races ago using those tactics as long as it does not get boxed likely to figure.
Back/Lay

Wolves 4.05 Mistress Shy, Big price backing to lay around 15/20 ticks Will be up among the pace likely to figure during the race then fade.

Wolves 4.35 Hittin´the Skids Big field but will try and front run, justifying its mark up as fav. Back/Lay

[ron]

Harry Buckle ran the race i expected, Front running take the lead and maintain it to 1.01

[ron]

Pas Trop tard Wins, i must admit i didnt think it would Easier to back as it went off at 4.2 said i would lay at 2.00/2.50 My son backed it on the Nose..

[ron]

Epic Storm, held up (too much) eventually coming from last to 4th in the run in... way too late

[ron]

dont forget, green up when its there, if you feel its against you red up to minimise losses

[ron]

Mulhandis comes 2nd left it to the final 2 furlongs as i thought it though the odds didnt drop as much as i thought they would off at 6.00, hitting a low of 4.00 i was out at 4.5 as i thought it was boxed in at the back.. strong finisher who needs a clear run.

[Morgans Choice]

Fascinating stuff R, thanks for the insights.

Well done, MC

[strikemast]

Caught out by last moment by non runner in running

Not sure if this is the correct spot to air this. Todays 3.35 race at Wolv. I got matched for 20-00 on Murcar at odds of around 18.00 just before the off using Geeks Toy. I laid in running for a profit shown on the hedge column for 10.00. My Befair account showed that I backed 20-00 at 11.8 and laid 40-00 at 13.5 in running to hedge out. The reason shown was the withdrawal after my back bet was matched of Somemothersdohavem, the favourite. Betfair took a RF reduction of 39.5% off the back bet but not the in running lay bet. So, a large loss when it showed a 10.00 win. Tried speaking to Betfair but they said that I should have been watching live video and would have seen the withdrawal. The odds didn't change before the off to reflect the non runner!

[lcredd]

He was withdrawn moments before the off so BF didn't have time to remove him from the betting. He was strong fav so it was a high RF.

In-running bets are never subject to RF.