Why are Wigan almost 3.00 to beat Blackburn?

[WhyAlwaysMe]

Not when the price is 1.41 ...

I just had a look at my workings ... it looks like I mixed some Man Ure data into the mix ...

Fergie playing mind games with you DB?

[WhyAlwaysMe]

You've never seen them ? Strange, let me show you something:

http://www.betexplorer.com/soccer/england/premier-league/matchdetails.php?matchid=801486

Look at the odds in Pinnacle - 1.44 Could you please tell me why Man City - Swansea is 1.44? The price In Betfair were 1.45. Because It was the start of fecking season! 1 round of the premier league. Never seen something like this before? Well I guess you are not for that game then

Arsenal Wigan was about the same too. However you will struggle to find a top v bottom four team with awful away form at much more than 1.25 I'll guess, which is what I should have said earlier.

If City were to play QPR 10 times at home with the same teams I would go for 8 home wins which gives 1.25. The BF odds look short considering the pressure of the occasion.

[LuckyYou]

However I think City will win and take the PL

[doubleback]

DB can you really justify your system throwing out 1.53 for City?

Not when the price is 1.41 ...

I just had a look at my workings ... it looks like I mixed some Man Ure data into the mix ...

I was working on my League spready last night and that is where the balls-up occurred!

I have swapped the image over and what you see now is correct ...

[LuckyYou]

DB can you really justify your system throwing out 1.53 for City? I have never seen 1.53 for a top side playing a bottom four team at home and that's before you factor in City's strong home form. Does the fact you diverge so greatly excite or worry you I wonder? I could buy into 1.25 if you argued the case but 1.53 looks an outlier from here. But perhaps you have a big 'cock up' factor for City!

You've never seen them ? Strange, let me show you something:

http://www.betexplorer.com/soccer/england/premier-league/matchdetails.php?matchid=801486

Look at the odds in Pinnacle - 1.44 Could you please tell me why Man City - Swansea is 1.44? The price In Betfair were 1.45. Because It was the start of fecking season! 1 round of the premier league. Never seen something like this before? Well I guess you are not for that game then

[Morgans Choice]

DB can you really justify your system throwing out 1.53 for City? I have never seen 1.53 for a top side playing a bottom four team at home and that's before you factor in City's strong home form. Does the fact you diverge so greatly excite or worry you I wonder? I could buy into 1.25 if you argued the case but 1.53 looks an outlier from here. But perhaps you have a big 'cock up' factor for City!

Hi Gents,

this is really interesting. A few years ago I analysed league games based only on points difference. Whilst a large home points difference indicated a likely home win most of the season, I found that a lot of these top v bottom, banker home matches, at the end of the season resulted in draws. The only reason I could think of were the intensified presuures prevelant at this time of year,

cheers, MC

[WhyAlwaysMe]

DB can you really justify your system throwing out 1.53 for City? I have never seen 1.53 for a top side playing a bottom four team at home and that's before you factor in City's strong home form. Does the fact you diverge so greatly excite or worry you I wonder? I could buy into 1.25 if you argued the case but 1.53 looks an outlier from here. But perhaps you have a big 'cock up' factor for City!

I hope QPR won't be adopting the same defensive tactics used at Chelsea! Regardless of who you support it would be good to have at least some drama in this game.

Your Sunderland odds look accurate to me. I don't think United will want to lose it on goal difference so a couple of early City goals would make that one interesting.

[LuckyYou]

The Chelsea players were probably suffering from the psychological effects of listening to "You'll Never Walk Alone" for the six thousandth, seven hundred and fourty eighth time, in the space of a couple of days ...

:Brilliant

[doubleback]

The Chelsea players were probably suffering from the psychological effects of listening to "You'll Never Walk Alone" for the six thousandth, seven hundred and fourty eighth time, in the space of a couple of days ...

[valve]

dont understand what does Chelsea do in champions league!

[doubleback]

That went well ...

[custard]

As for tonight's game ... I reckon a Custard trade would do well, i.e., Back Over 2.5 and trade out after a goal.

I'm not inclined to let the bet run, even with the perceived value. The game looks borderline 2.5 goals ...

You would have backed at 1.9 and the lay bet would have been at 1.47.

[doubleback]

DB it would be great if you could repeat this exercise for the two big ones at the weekend but particularly City.

Yes, I can do that. I will post them up between now and Sunday ...

As for tonight's game ... I reckon a Custard trade would do well, i.e., Back Over 2.5 and trade out after a goal.

I'm not inclined to let the bet run, even with the perceived value. The game looks borderline 2.5 goals ...


Edit ... Current bf prices are (30 minutes before kick off);

Liverpool - 2.12

Chelsea - 3.65

Draw - 3.85

It's interesting to see that they have all moved towards my prices ...

[WhyAlwaysMe]

Great thread! Great illustration of how sensitive CS prices are...

FWIW I would tend to concur with the BF prices on this occasion. The fact they have just played each other and their general playing styles does not indicate a high scoring game to me. That 0-0 looks very big from here.

Talking of 0-0 check out Man City for Sunday!

DB it would be great if you could repeat this exercise for the two big ones at the weekend but particularly City.

[custard]

I though so too, great game in prospect.

Worst game I ever saw, strange sinister atmosphere I thought.

It is to be hoped that Blackburn never win a game again and drop out of the Football League. Their players are almost as old as I am.