Why are Wigan almost 3.00 to beat Blackburn?

[Emkayracing]

I wouldn't go In-play either the odds are great so no need of any other action Give me 8 more games like this and you will see what I am talking about

1-1 usually 7.0 - 8.0 in a Prem. match when both sides are odds-against.

I think DB's model is such that only potential back bets are flagged. I hope so anyway, as his AUQ price is always too skimpy!

DB - have you ever worked for Ladbrokes?!

[LuckyYou]

If we take the 1-1 scoreline as an example, you [Lucky You] can see value in taking the 10.16 that I modelled. On the other end of the spectrum, the higher scorelines, I see Betfair as offering value. Who is right ? Who is wrong? If it was that easy, everyone would go with Betfair's highest probability, i.e., lowest odds and turn a profit in the long run. We all know that isn't the case ...
As it stands, it looks like you owe me money ... the score is still 0-0 ... am I gonna have to send the boys round, or what ...

Don't be so fast boy, 1 game means nothing You will be amased how accurate the Betfair Prices are...

[doubleback]

That did make me chuckle, Emkay! I must say in my defence, that I did offer AUQ odds greater than bf on the Arsenal v Norwich & Man Ure v Swansea games ...

So there we have it ... Blackburn 0 - 1 Wigwam... Rocket to the FACE, was on the right lines ...

Lucky You ... you owe me blud ... I know Neteller doesn't work in your country, maybe you could supply me with some Eastern European beauties, to work in my boudoir ...

In all seriousness though, I think that I should take my prices versus bf prices and the outcome, over a season ... then we can see who's right or wong ...

[LuckyYou]

That did make me chuckle, Emkay! I must say in my defence, that I did offer AUQ odds greater than bf on the Arsenal v Norwich & Man Ure v Swansea games ...

So there we have it ... Blackburn 0 - 1 Wigwam... Rocket to the FACE, was on the right lines ...

Lucky You ... you owe me blud ... I know Neteller doesn't work in your country, maybe you could supply me with some Eastern European beauties, to work in my boudoir ...

In all seriousness though, I think that I should take my prices versus bf prices and the outcome, over a season ... then we can see who's right or wong ...

Seriously - If over the long term the prices you take at BF are better than the prices again at BF just before kick off - you will be right, if they are not like yesterday, they will be right. I don't know how you are making your model, but BF prices includes FORM, missing players (the most important), team spirit, motivation (very important too - Wigan were 2 times more motivated, just beacause they had not only theoritical chance not to relegate), weather, etc etc... Not only lean statistics. I don't want to sound pesimistic, I think in this case I am realistic. You need more variables in your model IMO.
Its impossible 1-1 score to be 10.16 on this game. 1-1 is the most common result, you can't price it with 10! If I had these odds for real I'd really take all games that I can!

[doubleback]

Some recent pre-match Betfair prices for 1-1 ...

Chelsea (0)v(2) Newcastle 10.5

Arsenal (3)v(3) Norwich 18.5

Newcastle (0)v(2) Man City 9.2

Man Ure (2)v(0) Swansea 20

As you can see, high prices for 1-1 does occur ... About my model ... I make my prices from scratch and take all the factors that you mentioned into account, plus a whole load more ... it is very comprehensive ... I will model the Liverpool v Chelsea game later and you can scrutinise that too ... I'll give you 1-1 alright ...

[LuckyYou]

It depends on the odds that you will give me for 1-1, but I'll take 10s for sure

[doubleback]

Here we go ...

[PC0845]

Into 2.60 now, good little trade out of that one.

I have never said this before in a match involving either Blackburn or Wigan and I doubt I will say this again but I reckon this could be a really good game tonight. What do you think? Potential? Or a weekday borefest? can't see it.

I though so too, great game in prospect.

Worst game I ever saw, strange sinister atmosphere I thought.

[custard]

I though so too, great game in prospect.

Worst game I ever saw, strange sinister atmosphere I thought.

It is to be hoped that Blackburn never win a game again and drop out of the Football League. Their players are almost as old as I am.

[WhyAlwaysMe]

Great thread! Great illustration of how sensitive CS prices are...

FWIW I would tend to concur with the BF prices on this occasion. The fact they have just played each other and their general playing styles does not indicate a high scoring game to me. That 0-0 looks very big from here.

Talking of 0-0 check out Man City for Sunday!

DB it would be great if you could repeat this exercise for the two big ones at the weekend but particularly City.

[doubleback]

DB it would be great if you could repeat this exercise for the two big ones at the weekend but particularly City.

Yes, I can do that. I will post them up between now and Sunday ...

As for tonight's game ... I reckon a Custard trade would do well, i.e., Back Over 2.5 and trade out after a goal.

I'm not inclined to let the bet run, even with the perceived value. The game looks borderline 2.5 goals ...


Edit ... Current bf prices are (30 minutes before kick off);

Liverpool - 2.12

Chelsea - 3.65

Draw - 3.85

It's interesting to see that they have all moved towards my prices ...

[custard]

As for tonight's game ... I reckon a Custard trade would do well, i.e., Back Over 2.5 and trade out after a goal.

I'm not inclined to let the bet run, even with the perceived value. The game looks borderline 2.5 goals ...

You would have backed at 1.9 and the lay bet would have been at 1.47.

[doubleback]

That went well ...

[valve]

dont understand what does Chelsea do in champions league!

[doubleback]

The Chelsea players were probably suffering from the psychological effects of listening to "You'll Never Walk Alone" for the six thousandth, seven hundred and fourty eighth time, in the space of a couple of days ...