Why are Wigan almost 3.00 to beat Blackburn?

[Rocket to the FACE]

I was having a wee look at this yesterday when there was only a few hundred in the market and tried to back Wigan but couldn't get matched.
Then I looked again this morning and Wigan are still just under 3.00, currently 2.94.
Away to Blackburn? There must be something I am missing, I thought for a while it was just down to the fact Wigan were away from home but here are the prices I decided upon and below that are the market prices


Home 3.00
Draw 3.35
Away 2.58


Home 2.64
Draw 3.60
Away 2.92

Basically I've come up with prices which flip the two teams compared to the BF markets.

Am I missing something? On a neutral ground Wigan should be favs in this match. Even with home advantage Blackburn are way too short and I can't think of any potential team news?

Sod it, Wigan back @ 2.94

While we're on the subject, Di Santo is fecking awesome, I think Wigan did a great piece of business getting him there, £2 million for a pacey, intelligent and flexible forward with bags of confidence? I hate to say it but I bet he doesn't last another season before being bagged by a top 6 and benched for 2 seasons ;( Hope he stays with Wigan

[doubleback]

This is what I make it:

[Rocket to the FACE]

Into 2.60 now, good little trade out of that one.

I have never said this before in a match involving either Blackburn or Wigan and I doubt I will say this again but I reckon this could be a really good game tonight. What do you think? Potential? Or a weekday borefest? can't see it.

[LuckyYou]

This is what I make it:

DB can you please give me that prices for 1-1 correct score - I'd like to bet that game at 10 please In fact I'd take every game with little exceptions that you give 10.16 for 1-1

[doubleback]

Well, the odds on Betfair are suggesting that less goals are going to be scored than my model ...

I would match your 1-1 Back at 10.16 ... My market isn't going In-Play though ...

[Rocket to the FACE]

I still fancy goals in the game too, I think Wigan have one of the most underrated attack and attack philosophy of all the teams bar perhaps Swansea although with Swansea it isn't so much 'go and attack' but more 'do whatever you want, whenever you can' but both teams have a fantastic mentality.

When you watch Swansea play it's as if they've been told it doesn't matter if you make a mistake as long as the non-mistakes outweigh the mistakes it's alright. Do you see what I'm getting at? Both teams play with an almost care free attitude. I don't want to say care-free because in football that has the wrong connotations but they both just go out there and play. For 90 minutes.

I think Swansea at home, Wigan on a good day and Man City are the three teams really worth watching in the EPL.

Gooood.

[lamas1984]

Wigan never win in Blackburn stadium..

[Rocket to the FACE]

LOL a chicken on the pitch...that's a first.

[custard]

LOL a chicken on the pitch...that's a first.

Sadly, he's easily the best thing that has been on the pitch. Both teams should be banned from playing football. Dreadful !

[Rocket to the FACE]

Dunno about that, Wigan started very well.


Stagnant just now mind. Hope they buck up their ideas before HT

[doubleback]

They're just clucking around now ...

[custard]

Pedersen is playing as though he has been plucked.

[LuckyYou]

Well, the odds on Betfair are suggesting that less goals are going to be scored than my model ...

I would match your 1-1 Back at 10.16 ... My market isn't going In-Play though ...

I wouldn't go In-play either the odds are great so no need of any other action Give me 8 more games like this and you will see what I am talking about

[valve]

I wouldn't go In-play either the odds are great so no need of any other action Give me 8 more games like this and you will see what I am talking about

Everything that can happen, will happen + statistic and probability work.

[doubleback]

If we take the 1-1 scoreline as an example, you [Lucky You] can see value in taking the 10.16 that I modelled. On the other end of the spectrum, the higher scorelines, I see Betfair as offering value. Who is right ? Who is wrong? If it was that easy, everyone would go with Betfair's highest probability, i.e., lowest odds and turn a profit in the long run. We all know that isn't the case ...
As it stands, it looks like you owe me money ... the score is still 0-0 ... am I gonna have to send the boys round, or what ...