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  • jibiko
    replied
    Originally posted by Temujin View Post
    ...Sure have predetermined ideas of what you expect out of each trade, and your acceptable risk levels, but a "bot" (or in this case a robotic trading style), will never be as efficient as an astute trader...
    true.

    But a "bot" (or in this case a robotic trading style) can still make you money longterm
    and that's the target.

    You don't have to be perfect (or have the perfect bot or robotic style) in order to make money.
    You (or your bot, or your robotic trading style) just have to be good enough to make more than you lose.

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  • Ted
    replied
    If we bail out early, we have smaller profit/loss situation, which is far easier to handle, than jagged big wins/losses.

    Red/Green out early, but use bigger stake. If ie lay 2.5 gls & there's a early goal, take the hit, then

    play on with 3.5 gls. If our original thinking is right, we still win.

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  • Guest's Avatar
    Guest replied
    Originally posted by J.S. View Post
    You make some great points here. I often think having the P&L column on the ladder has its psychological hindrance when attempting to give the market a true assessment. It seems ideally the profit or loss figure should be seen as merely a byproduct in how effective we are in making decisions under threatening conditions. Seeing the red figure multiply is just going to add pressure and force a rash decision at a time when essentially the opposite behaviour is what's required to be effective.
    That's what is nice about The Toy. I just hide the markets behind another site and totally ignore the fact that if I traded out after 15 minutes that I would normally lose about 15% of my stake. As the game progresses, I make up my mind if it is worth my while backing again at the higher price which is then available, i.e. chasing the bet. This tactic tends to pay off when the bigger teams play the smaller ones and it's 0 - 0 approaching half time.
    This very similar to Mr Taxbreak's wheeze of laying Under 1.5 goals in games where the halftime score is 0 - 0. I think he looks for lay prices of around about 1.65 and trades out if no goal approaching the 60 minute mark. ( This is not a precise description but near enough to give the sense of it ).

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  • J.S.
    replied
    You make some great points here. I often think having the P&L column on the ladder has its psychological hindrance when attempting to give the market a true assessment. It seems ideally the profit or loss figure should be seen as merely a byproduct in how effective we are in making decisions under threatening conditions. Seeing the red figure multiply is just going to add pressure and force a rash decision at a time when essentially the opposite behaviour is what's required to be effective.

    Leave a comment:


  • Temujin
    replied
    When closing out a trade, there are 3 basic possibilities that I have seen.
    1. You have a predetermined exit point, both against, and for.
    2. As soon as it goes against you at all you trade out trying to minimise loss (blindly).
    3. You reassess your trade as soon as you enter it.

    Personally, my goal is always 3. You are constantly looking for entry points. Watching the market trying to work out the best time to get in. This should be exactly the same for your exit points. No point getting off the train too early as they say.
    When you entered the trade, you thought the price would go up. Now you find yourself sitting at a red screen, as it stands now. Why did you enter the trade? Were you wrong, or is it a slight hiccup, perhaps you simply entered the trade too early, meaning you are still right, but just have to deal with it going against you for a start.
    Each trade you enter, should be as efficient as you can make it, judged by the market conditions. No point taking a 2 tick loss just because it went against you at the start, unless of course you feel that it is only going to get worse.
    While there is a lot to be said for the "scratch trade", or minimising losses early, there is also the situation where you are hardly ever going to get the market at its peak, or trough. That being said, generally, there is a very good chance that on most of your trades it will start out going against you. Now if you are a profitable trader, then I can't see any value in scratching any trade that turns red, considering most of them will turn profitable for you.

    Yes, minimise losses, but also maximise profits. The most efficient way to do this, is to have the ability to continue to assess trading opportunities whether you have money in the market or not.
    There is a big difference between the guy that lays and trades out for a 1 tick profit, and the guy that lays, and then reassesses to lay again, and even again and ride the train.

    So my advice. Trade the market as you see it right now. Sure have predetermined ideas of what you expect out of each trade, and your acceptable risk levels, but a "bot" (or in this case a robotic trading style), will never be as efficient as an astute trader.



    Please note:
    I am not at all suggesting to wait for any red position to turn around. I am merely suggesting that there is no point trading out just because it is red, if you assess the market that the market conditions will either minimise that red, or turn it green. If your assessment of the market changes after you put the opening trade in, then by all means get out as quick as you can.

    Leave a comment:


  • Emkayracing
    replied
    Originally posted by Scumbag trader View Post
    He averaged around 5 hookers a week
    Yep - Massive house, cars, pool, whores, parties, coke, etc , etc.

    But he is happier on £42 a week now

    When he eventually comes down he might re-assess

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  • Scumbag trader
    replied
    He averaged around 5 hookers a week

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  • Emkayracing
    replied
    Talking of losses - there was a period of time when stupid amounts of money were turning up into the BF markets. What price it was this clown??!

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  • nosferatu
    replied
    Some wise words in this thread, thanks folks.

    Had a bad case of not accepting losses today. Scalping the Over 2.5 in the Juventus game and had an open trade when the first goal went in. Sat there like a clown waiting for the price to come back up a bit and was about to trade out for a loss when Juve equalised.

    Lesson learned, I hope.

    Leave a comment:


  • Guest's Avatar
    Guest replied
    Originally posted by Emkayracing View Post
    The problem with 'Gut feeling' is that it can be very hit and miss. You can talk yourself into staying in a market - mostly because you want to be proved right with regard to your entry point (Selection). 5 more minutes, 10 more minutes, get out at £50 red... etc, etc

    There is no benefit from naming a review point other than it is good for discipline. If left to just go with the flow you can click too many buttons or in some cases not click at all and both errors cost you profit.

    If I say that I will review at 60/65/70/75 minutes I will not do anything before that point. Sometimes there is no need to do anything after it either which can be good or bad

    This falls under money management and risk control. There are no rights or wrongs and we all learn from experience. It is a long and winding road
    My "gut feeling" only kicks in in games I am watching. If I can't see the game I have precise times. Usually 60 mins is "make my mind up time" in games I cannot see with my own eyes. I accept my loss by saying "bollocks to it" and I move on.

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  • jibiko
    replied
    Originally posted by Emkayracing View Post
    ...and we all learn from experience.
    true.

    another way to learn is from the mistakes of others

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  • Emkayracing
    replied
    The problem with 'Gut feeling' is that it can be very hit and miss. You can talk yourself into staying in a market - mostly because you want to be proved right with regard to your entry point (Selection). 5 more minutes, 10 more minutes, get out at £50 red... etc, etc

    There is no benefit from naming a review point other than it is good for discipline. If left to just go with the flow you can click too many buttons or in some cases not click at all and both errors cost you profit.

    If I say that I will review at 60/65/70/75 minutes I will not do anything before that point. Sometimes there is no need to do anything after it either which can be good or bad

    This falls under money management and risk control. There are no rights or wrongs and we all learn from experience. It is a long and winding road

    Leave a comment:


  • crowdog
    replied
    Got to agree also..
    I find that once I've closed a trade I move on but when I've done it for a loss it can play on my mind more so I keep watching the price and thinking what if.
    It's good to strive for a perfect trade each time but in reality it just won't happen so there's no point in beating yourself up about it. Move on and be happy for what you've got and not for what you could have had!

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  • Guest's Avatar
    Guest replied
    My views are essentially the same as Emkayracing. I'm happy as long as I have a profit. My mindset is now firmly fixed at avoiding losses and taking profits. I do not work to precise percentages and I rely on my gut reaction as to when I should close. If I have a potential profit in the Over 2.5 market, I either take it or let the bet run to buy me extra minutes in the market. By this, I mean I try for more profit, but ensure that my stake is not lost.
    I know what I should do and when I should do it. If, however, the goals, if any, come late, I have fewer options. I lost all my stake in the Liverpool and the Tottenham games today. I never had the chance to trade out by taking a profit or saving my entire stake.
    I made money on two football games and both rugby internationals in the Over smarket. The Real Madrid game is not going too well and if doesn't buck up soon I am going to end up losing on the day. If I get three goals I'll end up quits on the day. If not, I'll be one init stake down on the day.
    However you look at it, a lot of work trading six games for not very much today, but, if there had been goals in the two total losses I would have done well. My trading on the other games has "kept me in touch" as it were.
    And, as luck would have it, Kaka has just scored the second goal for Real and I have jumped out. Small loss on the day. Couldn't be bothered to even think of a third goal as I have had almost nine hours of continuous sport and am now hitting the Cabernet Sauvignon

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  • Scumbag trader
    replied
    exactly, i've backed my fair share of 20.00 horses with a view to trade out in running, got out at 25.00 and then it wins. Nothing you can do about it.

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