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Hi all! I did some analysis on the Eurovision markets and I think I found a nice value bet. Finland to win Eurovision 2015! As some of you may know, Finland is represented by a group of middle aged men with down syndrome. Although their music is not sweet on the years they won overwhelmingly in their country.
Why do I think Finland is a value bet:
1. Eurovision is NOT a song contest. We have seen it so many times before its silly to still call it that way. Eurovision is a voting contest. People caring enough to vote pays a bigger role.
2. Last year, and some time ago when Ukraine won, the countries were represented by participants strongly supported by the LTGB community. People that are passionate about the song, artist, and what he/she represents are the ones that do vote. In this case, you can imagine that all the people with disabilities in Europe (around 80 million people in the EU alone!), their parents, partners, family, will be very passionate about what the group represents, how they overcame difficulties and still make music and vote Finland! Generally the group from Finland is very likeable and its positive what they do therefore, they will get votes even from casual watchers that support what they stand for.
They will also get votes from people enjoying punk music, and votes from people that just want to have a laugh.
3. All major bookmakers offer Finland at around half of what you can find on Betfair! Even Pinaccle the odds experts price Finland at 6,55! They are on par with Estonia with most bookmakers (estonia is below 5 on betfair). Do the markets on betfair know something more? I doubt it. The markets are way too illiquid to tell anything for certain. It seems to me that somebody bet big on Finland when the group was announced (its visible on the charts), and now is stuck with a very large position in an illiquid market and wants to cover some of that position - a great opportunity!
So overall I think if you can get a bet at anything above 8 is worth considering. Markets like that are always full of opportunity, as people think its the most beautiful song that wins, when in reality its the song that makes people passionate enough to vote that wins. 80+ million super passionate voters will do just that hopefully! I personally think value bets like that are very rare so I’ll keep most of my bet until the final, unless I can get out at around 2.5 before the final. Drinks are on me if that happens!
What do you guys think?
Why do I think Finland is a value bet:
1. Eurovision is NOT a song contest. We have seen it so many times before its silly to still call it that way. Eurovision is a voting contest. People caring enough to vote pays a bigger role.
2. Last year, and some time ago when Ukraine won, the countries were represented by participants strongly supported by the LTGB community. People that are passionate about the song, artist, and what he/she represents are the ones that do vote. In this case, you can imagine that all the people with disabilities in Europe (around 80 million people in the EU alone!), their parents, partners, family, will be very passionate about what the group represents, how they overcame difficulties and still make music and vote Finland! Generally the group from Finland is very likeable and its positive what they do therefore, they will get votes even from casual watchers that support what they stand for.
They will also get votes from people enjoying punk music, and votes from people that just want to have a laugh.
3. All major bookmakers offer Finland at around half of what you can find on Betfair! Even Pinaccle the odds experts price Finland at 6,55! They are on par with Estonia with most bookmakers (estonia is below 5 on betfair). Do the markets on betfair know something more? I doubt it. The markets are way too illiquid to tell anything for certain. It seems to me that somebody bet big on Finland when the group was announced (its visible on the charts), and now is stuck with a very large position in an illiquid market and wants to cover some of that position - a great opportunity!
So overall I think if you can get a bet at anything above 8 is worth considering. Markets like that are always full of opportunity, as people think its the most beautiful song that wins, when in reality its the song that makes people passionate enough to vote that wins. 80+ million super passionate voters will do just that hopefully! I personally think value bets like that are very rare so I’ll keep most of my bet until the final, unless I can get out at around 2.5 before the final. Drinks are on me if that happens!
What do you guys think?