Breaking Even

[torrentco]

Hi,

is there a way to break even with pre-game betting in betfair?(after the commission)

the odds are so good i am guessing if i bet with a little search over 100 soccer markets i would break even.but i am not sure and wanted to ask you guys if anyone tried it before.

thanks

[torrentco]

by the way i am asking this because i need to pay more commission to betfair.

[torrentco]

not a single reply?

[Nathan]

Hi,

I believe to break even at 5% commision you would need to win roughly 51.3% percent of the time - but that is assuming that all bets are at the same price and stake.

[kawasaki]

try half time at footbal. no goals, prices move very little, usually you can even make one or two ticks profit.

[torrentco]

try half time at footbal. no goals, prices move very little, usually you can even make one or two ticks profit.

can you explain a little bit more?

[kawasaki]

oh wait, you need this to escape commision, need to be done across 2 separate markets, and must not do profit? :Ban
i had in mind, trading on one market at half time, with some experience its relatively easy to scalp one-two tick profit or get out at zero, almost no risk, as there are no goals, 15 minutes prices just stand still or moves one two-three-ticks usually same patterns all the time. dunno though if there is something to hunt if you need zero on two separate markets, need more research. i dont have any experience at evading comission

[Temujin]

In the last 6504 horses that have run around representing 734 races, there has been:

961 at WAP of between 2.00 and 5.00 where WAP = Weighted average price.

Of those, 285 have won, with 284.7842 representing expected wins.

That close enough to 100% for you?

For the record, in that time, between 10 and 20 shows 125 wins with 114.4452 expected showing 109%.


The market is pretty good. If you can back at better than average, then you will return more than 100%. How good you can back, determines how much above you get.

Risky though, as variance will get you if your money management is not sound.

[kawasaki]

what exactly is meant by average? on bf or acros all bookies?
and how to calculate that. i suppose, you can find out that it was average only after race?

[Temujin]

It means just that. The average...

You know, the amount traded at each price, liability of all, average traded price....
Weighted average price.

For example in the next race.

At the moment the figures are:
Horse Back Odds Lay Odds LTP WAP WAP market % Traded Volume Liability of traded volume TVL ratio WAP Book %
Beforeall 2.3 2.32 2.34 2.36 2.38 2.4 2.34 2.3612 42.35 66962.37 91,149.18 93 101.34
Donnas Palm 3.6 3.65 3.7 3.75 3.8 3.85 3.7 3.4324 29.13 25217.74 61,339.63 62
Seventh Hussar 4 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.2 4.5519 21.97 34991.45 124,286.13 126 # of runners
Upton Mead 13 13.5 14 14.5 15 15.5 14.5 12.6705 7.89 9976.11 116,426.19 118 4

Fav WAP Odds
2.3612


Doesn't format well but:

Beforeall current WAP is 2.3612 and trading higher, so that price is rising. Has a 42.35% market share, 67k bet on it, totalling 91k liability representing 93% of equal market share.




At around jump (NOW)

Horse Back Odds Lay Odds LTP WAP WAP market % Traded Volume Liability of traded volume TVL ratio WAP Book %
Beforeall 2.24 2.26 2.28 2.38 2.4 2.42 2.36 2.3471 42.61 214801.31 289,358.84 108 99.42
Donnas Palm 3.8 3.9 3.95 4.3 4.4 4.5 4 3.8557 25.94 87066.6 248,636.09 93
Seventh Hussar 3.55 3.6 3.65 3.95 4.3 4.6 3.85 4.185 23.89 73055.63 232,682.18 87 # of runners
Upton Mead 13.5 15 15.5 17 18 18.5 16 14.3212 6.98 22806.17 303,805.55 113 4

Fav WAP Odds
2.3471

[kawasaki]

but you can properly calculate it only right at inplay start?

i always somehow thought, that to be inprofit, you need to back higher than starting price average. if youre at say 5 minutes to start, calculate some averages and if youre now higher than your calculated average, you back, but then to start price shoots higher, youre in deep trouble me thinks. you cant know average until its too late to place stakes anyway?

[Temujin]

No reason you can't have live WAP. I do. And yes, that does change with every bet placed, but if you know where the money is going, where it has been, there is no reason you can't have a pretty good guess at where it will be at jump.

And really, SP averages out the same as WAP.

Around 50% of all horses will have a WAP at jump to within 5% of where it was with 2 minutes to go.
Also, around 50% of all horses will be within 1% of their WAP at 30 seconds before jump, to what they will end up at.

It isn't changing much in the last 2 minutes.

Eg.
30 seconds before jump.

2120/6617 horses have their WAP drifted more than 1%.
1092/6617 more than 2%
572/6617 more than 3%
232/6617 more than 5%

The shorteners
1315/6617 came in more than 1%
608/6617 more than 2%
326/6617 more than 3%
106/6617 more than 5%


And if something is drifting more than 5% in 30 seconds, it means that the price you get will be massively over WAP anyway.


So no, there isn't a reason you can't know what the WAP is when the race starts, or at the very least, have a very good guess at it.

[Temujin]

Kempton Park.
Just A Par
Green Flag
Third Intention
Annacotty
Buachaill Alainn


3:50 to go:
1.6821
5.1655
7.4804
17.5036
38.979


3 minutes to go:
1.6867
5.1464
7.4673
17.2463
40.0933

2 minutes to go:
1.6877
5.1299
7.4445
17.3214
41.6762

[Temujin]

1 minute


1.6863
5.1106
7.4642
17.3176
44.1958

[Temujin]

Jump time:

1.6839
5.0893
7.5568
17.3007
45.8045