An Embryonic Football Strategy

[Morgans Choice]

Hi all,

after the spirited discussion we've had on one football strategy and in the hope of trying to get ideas firing off in beginning traders minds, I thought I'd make one up for discussion (a football strategy not a beginning trader).

Trading football successfully, seems to be largely about match selection, so the matches to trade will need to be assessed.

Only one "indicator" is to be used, and only league matches will be considered. The indicator will be "the difference in points gained, in the league, by each team, to date". Statistics gathered many years ago, when attacking the pools, will be used.

Favourites offered at shorter prices than their "real price" (as assessed by the statistics) are to be layed.

When the favourite's price has drifted to the "real price", the trade will be closed.

In the event of a goal, the trade will be closed for a profit or a loss.

NOTE: This is not a "real" strategy, but one for forumites to comment on. It should not be used by beginners or anybody else with the expectation of showing a long term profit

OK, shoot, MC

[shadowninja]

You'll break even less commission.

If you hold then expect a goal, you'll likely be caught out by massive drifts against you and end up holding for longer than you'd like which means more risk of a bad goal because that's why the market's moving against you - the team you've laid is pushing and doing well - or catch a lucky (good) goal. So you're really betting on goals in your favour even if you think otherwise. Plus previous performance doesn't guarantee future performance.

[Cran]

When dealing with statistical based value my preference is to place straight bets.

It either has value or it doesn't... why complicate things by trading?

[inandout]

From what I read of football 'traders' these days they'd be better off using the next goal markets than the match odds markets. Obviously I don't include all traders in, what seems, this 'blanket' observation just a high majority of 'visible' traders who back team x and lay them if they go ahead but sit and pray if they go behind.
I acknowledge that the next goal markets are far weaker these days than they once were but that in itself presents an edge if patience is exercised when asking for a price and being prepared to walk away and move on if that price is not matched.
A good question for traders, of the pre match variety, is if you make a team 2 and you can get 2.2 you obviously back at 2.2 however if that price then moves to 1.8 what is your course of action? (this is if there's no unexpected team news that has caused such a swing and makes you question your tissue price)
I wont say what I'd do, take that as me being thick or looking to glean information from others I don't care , I'd just like to see what others would in this event without me biasing answers.

[Morgans Choice]

Hi Gents,

good point S, I don't trade football, I straight bet it as C says. Interesting about the markets response to the fav. pressing, though, I didn't know that,

cheers, MC

[custard]

I don't think it's possible to price a market. Today, the British Lions played and I paid attention to the tries and total points markets. Whoever had set the market was a complete idiot. He expected eight tries and fifty nine points and I had absolutely no doubt that "unders" had to be the choice in both these markets. My rule, however, is only to back "overs" and, if I think this is unlikely to occur, I do not bet.

This was an example of a professional market maker getting things terribly wrong. So, to return to my initial sentence, it's impossible to set actual prices but, nevertheless, it is possible to identify value. I didn't care what the prices were in the Lions game, I just knew that those which were on offer were wrong.

So, forget all the mumbo-jumbo about working out precise odds. Either it's value, or it isn't, end of !

[inandout]

You must have a price, however you've come to it, to decide whether the available prices are value or not though custard

[custard]

You must have a price, however you've come to it, to decide whether the available prices are value or not though custard

Yes, but this is only an approximation. I do not believe there is any point in making countless calculations to determine a precise price. Trading is only two things - backing and laying. One famous trader said it was "advanced coin flipping". I believe he was right.

[Cran]

I do not believe there is any point in making countless calculations to determine a precise price

Unless, for example, it reveals a bias in a roulette wheel that enables you to take £1000's from a casino...

[custard]

Unless, for example, it reveals a bias in a roulette wheel that enables you to take £1000's from a casino...

Was Rafael Nadal unbalanced yesterday ? Could his defeat have been predicted by having regard to past events and statistics ? Mathematics and statistics do not lend themselves readily to sports events.

[Morgans Choice]

Hi C,

I agree with you, "market efficiency" means the price are "aligned" but each individual price does not necessarily accurately reflect that chance of that particular event happening. Interestingly we can never know what the "real" value is, in any individual event, since we'd have to repeat that event with identical conditions perhaps tens of thousands of times (DB'll probably tell us a reasonable figure for how many times). But as you say you can get an approximation and it doesn't matter whether or not you get that by, mathematics, "feel", or reading runes.

Interestingly I use "overlays" a lot in backing horses. The "overlay" is, of course, only a difference in opinion between the bookie and I on the value of a particular horse.

Cheers, MC

[inandout]

When pricing an event I always give myself a % leeway in the knowledge that the market always knows more than me. This is especially true if 'straight backing/laying' in horse racing.

[doubleback]

An embryonic football strategy preludes the birth process ...

A Birth Process Model for Association Football Matches

Mark J. Dixon; Michael E. Robinson
The Statistician, Vol. 47, No. 3. (1998), pp. 523-538.

linkety link link.

[inandout]

Before we go too far into this interesting thread is anyone willing to answer my earlier question?

[Morgans Choice]

An embryonic football strategy preludes the birth process ...

A Birth Process Model for Association Football Matches

Mark J. Dixon; Michael E. Robinson
The Statistician, Vol. 47, No. 3. (1998), pp. 523-538.

linkety link link.

Lol,

cheers DB,

MC