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  • A stupid question

    I do apologise I am absolutely dying with a hangover and my brain is not functioning properly - but anyway I received some email from a guy named Paul Coleman earlier this morning with a PDF claiming to make a 100 a day whatever the result

    This system requires a minimum of TWO race meetings on the day. If there is only
    one meeting on the day, DO NOT follow the system, wait until the next racing day to
    see if there is TWO meetings or more. Once this happens, which is almost every
    racing day, it is O.K to go ahead.

    Here is an example of a days racing:
    York 2.00
    Epsom 2.15
    York 2.30
    Epsom 2.45
    York 3.00 and so on.

    Step 1 ... Start at the first race of the day and see what price the favourite is. For
    example the favourite is 6/4.

    Step 2... Work out what your stake would need to be to win £100 off a 6/4 shot. (This
    works out to be £67)

    You will have a return of £167.50 (£67 @ 6/4 = £100.50 + £67 stake).

    This gives you an overall profit of £100.50, exceeding your target of £100. Start again
    tomorrow.

    If this bet lost, go to the second race of the day and do the following:
    Step 4... See what price the favourite is. For example it is 7/4.

    Step 5... You must now work out how much your stake needs to be in order for you to
    recover your losses AND make £100 profit, (£67 losses + £100=£167). 167 divided
    by 1.75 (7/4) = £95.42.

    If this bet wins, STOP BETTING. You will have a return of £ 262 (£95.42 @ 7/4 =
    £167 + £95 stake). This gives you an overall profit of £100 (£262 minus £67 losses
    from previous races, minus £95 stake money)
    .
    If this bet loses, follow steps 4, and 5, above in the next race and do this on every race
    until your bet wins. As soon as you have a winner you MUST stop. Start again
    tomorrow.

    I am missing something here or do the maths not quite add up on this? Ps I am very hungover this morning and I can barely spell my name let alone count - (no trading for me today)

  • #2
    If 2 odds on shots and the next 2 favourites don't win, what will your stake be? Or if no favourite win?

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by dsports View Post
      I am missing something here or do the maths not quite add up on this? Ps I am very hungover this morning and I can barely spell my name let alone count - (no trading for me today)
      You missing point 6:
      If you follow these rules, the betting bank goes bust! Have a look at good old Adrian Massey stats.

      [QUOTE=dsports;75907]
      Betfair is not the answere, it's the question.
      ....and the answere is NO!!!

      Comment


      • #4
        Thanks for the replies but the point that started to get me confused was

        Step 5... You must now work out how much your stake needs to be in order for you to
        recover your losses AND make £100 profit, (£67 losses + £100=£167). 167 divided
        by 1.75 (7/4) = £95.42.

        Now correct me if im wrong but isn't 7/4 2.75?

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        • #5
          yes, its 2.75, but that includes you getting your stake back. To calculate your actual winnings you need to use decimal odds -1.

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          • #6
            Agh Thanks - got ya now!

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            • #7
              Oh dear.

              Let me ask you a few questions.
              Why do you have to stop after a winner? If the system has an edge, the more you turnover, the more you make.

              If you are betting 95.42 on a 2.75 shot, to win 100, how in hell are you getting value? You make even money on something that will only win 36% of the time.

              How big is your bankroll?

              Based on those stats of previous results, you will need a bank of over 5.1 million dollars to not go broke. Assuming ave odds of 3.30 of course.

              They will also show:
              Once every 2 years, you will be in the hole for 46,000 dollars plus chasing your 100 profit for the day.
              Once a year you will be in the hold for 32,000 dollars plus chasing your 100 profit for the day.
              Once every 6 years in the hole for 95,000 dollars plus chasing trying to get on for nearly a 30k bet.
              To cover your 13212 results here, you would have needed a bankroll of 5.0533 million dollars to ensure not losing the lot.

              Truth is, this system won't work. It is the Martingale Betting System designed for roulette, adapted for horse racing.
              Yes, you may go along swimmingly for a long time. Maybe you can start with as little as 50 bucks and drag it out a year. But the truth is, unless you have the means to follow this system, and a place to bet which can handle bets in the tens of thousands without affecting the odds you are getting, then don't bother.
              And don't blame it on a hangover. You must be smarter than this to survive in the trading game.

              Comment


              • #8
                Temujin,

                Thanks for the advice - hence why I posted this in the newbie's corner. all this is very new to me (only 4 months).In all honesty I never heard about the Martingale Betting System until now I am still on a massive learning curve - apologies if this question sounded naive , but I think its best to get stupid questions like these out of the way quickly in your trading and betting journey.we all learn and make mistakes every day!
                the hangover didn't help BTW

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