Trading Correct Scores

[vladilyich]

How do others trade the correct score markets?

Eg Ive noticed that if pre match 0 0 is layed then in the first few minutes of a game it will tend to drift out and offer opportunities to back at a higher price for a small profit.Also if a goal is scored then you have greened up anyhow.
Is this correct or not?

Ive dutched a few markets by backing 0 0,1 0,0 1,1 1,2 1,1 2, or most of them and also backing over 2.5 as a back up.
Am I on the right track here or are there better ways of doing things?

Ive done a fair bit of matched betting and 1 1,generally seems to be the lowest back odds with the bookies and surprisingly even when the favourites score,the odds tend to come in a bit and I have got my matched lay at much more favourable odds.

Is this typical?

Enjoying the forum and the advice given.

[MyNameIsDan]

Hi vladilyich, first of all I'll probably use the word 'generally' quite a few times here, and secondly this is just how I see things, I'm not saying this is a better way, just the way that is better for me. The main goal here is profit, so if you find something that works for you then that is the best way to do things I think a lot also depends on whether you are happy to leave your bets to run for the entire match, or whether you prefer to get in and out quickly. For me, I like to have closed all of my trades well before half time, although sometimes I do leave them to run longer.

I personally don't like to lay the 0-0 for a number of reasons, eg, the generally high odds mean quite a large liability and often it can be 20-30 minutes before a goal is scored (in the English Premier League at least). During those first 20 mins the odds of the 0-0 will steadily move downwards so I find it uncomfortable to be hoping for a goal to be scored. Of course there are those matches that get to half time and it's still 0-0 and it's a headache of do you get out now and take a loss, or stay in and hope for a goal in the second half but leave yourself open to an even bigger loss if it stays scoreless.

Since I know the odds will be decreasing as long as no goal is scored I prefer to back the 0-0 at kick off, and let it run for say 10-15 minutes. Obviously if a goal is scored in this time then I'm screwed so I tend to also back the 0-1 and 1-0. As the game is played, the odds for these two scores also generally come down quite predictably and you can get what I consider to be a decent return off quite a small stake.

So for example, I may back 0-0, 0-1 and 1-0 for £10 each at kick off. I leave these to run for the first 15 minutes - this could be longer or shorter depending on how both teams are playing, if there are lots of chances for either team to score I might get out after 5 minutes, or if it's a tight game and not much happening I might wait 20-25 minutes.

So, after 15 minutes if it's still 0-0 I can close all my trades for a green of around £10-15 (this depends on the two teams that are playing) but I don't think that's a bad return for 15 mins when the absolute most I could ever loose is £30.

Now, if a goal is scored in those first 15 mins I can generally get out straight away and loose about half my stake, so I get out with £15 of my original £30. I also have the option to leave my one good bet running if I have the view that another goal isn't very likely in the next 20 minutes or so. After that time, I should be able to close that last trade and either break even, or maybe even make a very small profit.

The risk with this trade is if there are a couple of very early goals scored, this can and does happen although I'm happy to risk it as I feel this is an exception rather than the norm.

I have noticed the 0-0 drift on quite a few matches, generally if you take a look at the price say 30 mins before kick off, then it will jump up maybe a tick or two or three in the last few moments before the kick off. As I said earlier though I tend not to do anything with that drift though as I'm not comfortable with laying the 0-0.

Backing 0-0, 0-1, 1-0 and 1-1 with an insurance back of the over 2.5 sounds a good strategy as if you aren't covered on the scores your back on the overs can come to the rescue. I'm not sure if I would include the 1-2 or 2-1 if I was also backing over 2.5 because if it stayed a one goal game then I'd be losing on the 2-1, 1-2 and over 2.5. Of course if it did end up 2-1 or 1-2 then you'd get a boost from having the profit from the correct score and also the profit from the correct over 2.5 bet, so would probably depend on the prices and whether I had a decent expectation of that being the final score for me to back those two as well. Again that's just me personally, if this is working for you then that's the main thing

I haven't really done anything with the 1-1 market so haven't got any experience of how the odds react to a goal so can't say anything on that one I'm afraid.

[vladilyich]

Dan,many thanks for your reply,this advice is exactly what I was looking for.

Firstly,I cannot believe I said I backed over 2.5 and then also backed the 2 1 and 1 2 scorelines,that was nonsense on my part and an obvious mistake

I have watched a couple of youtube vids from a trader using the Toy and he lays under 2.5 or 3.5 as an out if a goal or two goes in early and that seems to make sense also,to me at least.
I haven't really mastered in play correct score trading and the market moves just yet but I'm practicing with small stakes as I learn at the moment.

Many thanks for taking the time to reply as I am new to trading but understand the idea of betting and laying and trying to get arbs through matched betting and I'm also an experienced mug punter too.

A tool of many uses if you like.

[MyNameIsDan]

No worries mate, always happy to discuss different approaches and ideas

Yup a cheeky lay on the unders markets can be great for helping to minimise the damage done by a few early goals going in and might even get you a small profit back if it all pays off so well worth having in your book of tricks.

As I say, I mainly concentrate on the 0-0, 0-1 and 1-0 and all these will steadily move downwards from kick off until the first goal is scored. If you pick a couple of scores per match and just watch to see how the prices move and how the market reacts to goals at different times throughout the match you will soon pick it up and get a feel for how those markets behave.

I'd also recommend watching the games you are trading if at all possible, either on tv or via an internet stream. The pictures may be anything from a few seconds to a couple of minutes behind real time, but by watching the match you can quickly get a feel for how the teams are playing and base your trades on that. Tried trading 'blind' a few times when I was first trying it out and it's horrible trying to make decisions without seeing how they are playing.

I was a terrible punter hence my switch to trading, now I can (mostly) make a bit of profit regardless of the final result.

[vladilyich]

I do watch a couple of streams but they are usually a bit behind due to my poor internet connection.

Is there a way for GT to have a text commentary on the game at the same time as trading on it,a la Bet365 for example?
Ive noticed one or two of the newer trading software platforms have tried to integrate this into their platforms.

Thanks for the advice and keep it coming.

[custard]

One question you both may care to address is :

If this sort of betting is profitable, why doesn't everybody use it ?

My answer is that multi bet trading and the rather unfortunately named "insurance bet" do not give rise to profits and are a nightmare to manage in practice.

Success in trading does not come from a magic combination of bets which all can use.

Sorry to be a wet blanket but I had expected others to shoot this down earlier and the task has fallen to me.

[MyNameIsDan]

vladilyich - yeah I think the best I ever got was a 15 second delay, usually it's more like a 30-45 second delay, but I can live with that as it still lets me evaluate how each team is playing on the day.

I don't believe there is an option for a text commentary, however I may well be wrong as I'm sure I'm only using a fraction of the features that the toy offers. The absolute best thing about the toy is that there is so much on offer and so much to customise...the absolute worst thing is there is so much on offer and so much to customise There are worse ways to spend an evening than exploring the menus and tweaking layouts though haha.

custard - yes totally agree with you, if you are placing several bets across multiple matches all the time it can easily get way out of hand. As I say when I trade correct scores for football I trade the 0-0, 1-0 and 0-1, it's just something that works for me and suits my style. It may not be a good fit for everyone though, and I really wouldn't like to try doing this on more than one match at a time. I also wouldn't like to try trading any additional scores, but these 3 markets are enough to give me what I consider a decent return on my investment and are a number that I can happily handle without getting myself tied in knots. If anyone else can handle trading more markets at once them more power to them, they are certainly more able than I am!

Again totally agree with you that there is no magic combination of bets that you can place in order to make money, it's nowhere near as simple as saying 'right if I do x, y, and z on every single football match then I'll win'.

Perhaps I should of also said that while I do employ 'multi market trading' I don't do this on every match. Some matches I may trade the over/under market, or the match odds market. I guess deciding which 'strategy' or 'trading approach' or whatever you want to call it is something that you pick up with experience. There certainly is no 'one size fits all' strategy that you can use on every single match. I should have made it clear that it's important to be selective and if that means not trading for a day or two because no matches meet your criteria then so be it.

As for shooting it down, you have a view and you put it forward, so I for one don't see you as being a wet blanket at all I'm going to disagree though, I've been employing the 0-0, 1-0 and 0-1 'multi' trade quite successfully, of course there are those times when things go wrong and I take a loss, but on the whole it's proving to be very profitable for me. But as I said above, I'm not trying to tell anyone that this is the absolute best and only way to do things, just offering it up incase vlad facied trying it as that is how I tend to handle the correct score markets (most of the time) It could be the case that he tries it, thinks it's a horrible way to do things and decides never to try it ever again!

[dvwooly]

lay 0-0 in the dutch league .... high odds though

Netherlands - Eredivisie February 28
FT Heracles 1 - 2 SC Heerenveen
March 1
FT PEC Zwolle 3 - 3 NEC Nijmegen
FT ADO Den Haag 1 - 1 NAC Breda
FT Go Ahead Eagles 2 - 3 PSV Eindhoven
FT Vitesse 3 - 0 Roda JC Kerkrade
March 2
FT FC Utrecht 1 - 1 FC Twente
FT FC Groningen 1 - 1 Cambuur
FT Feyenoord 1 - 2 Ajax
FT AZ Alkmaar 4 - 0 RKC Waalwijk

[vladilyich]

Ironically I tried the correct score market in tonights Chesterfield game and after early good results I did overstretch myself and made a small loss overall.

I agree that there is no magic pill to trading but until you try out as many possible options as you can,you cant develop a strategy that suits yourself and this includes a few stumbles or falls along the way.

Cheers for the advice all.