The final Countdown

[custard]

My knowledge of computer languages is restricted to the old BASIC which I used on a BBC Micro in the early Eighties. My knowledge of trading is reasonably high because I study it. I am not, however, a "proper trader" for two reasons. I do not work hard enough and I do not spend enough time doing it. The successful traders have my total admiration for their dedication to their work. I have a ready made excuse for not being like them as I have family commitments which prevent me from becoming a "full time trader". To be honest, I don't think I'd ever make the grade because I am very impatient. So, I'm happy to have trading as my principal hobby.

We are not allowed to discuss other types of software here but it is obvious that I use others. I am able to use Excel but am coming to the conclusion that I am only to utilise it to a very limited extent as my knowledge of VBA is low.

I think I have used every commercially available software at one time or another. Certainly, I can remember having five on my machine at the same time There are great similarities between them. None is rubbish. Overall, The Toy is easily the best. Unfortunately, its increased features, tools, graphs, etc., seem to have given people the impression that trading means using all "the bells and whistles". It doesn't and one should determine a strategy and then use tools to implement it rather than the other way about.

Go easy on the tools, try to think clearly, and kick the graphs into touch, and you will be on the right road.

[dvwooly]

i agree using graphs wont make you a profit alone. Trading moving average crossovers, bollinger band breakouts, MACD crossing through the 0 line and all that isnt going to work on here but i do think that the right graph will help identify a trend versus a range.

If you use a simple graph for an entry strategy i think it means you can replicate it over and over again. I just wish i could get a bot to place the trades even if it didnt win, the challenge and satisfaction from writing a bot would be great. wish you could add strategy scripts to this program.

like yourself i just do it at weekends and in an evening, next year i'll be happy to make £200 a month which i can use to buy myself some nice stuff for myself like a new cricket bat or an ipad or something nice for my wife or daughter.

I've given up trying to prove that i can predict the market and that im the best trader in the world and can give up my well paid job!

Having read the blog and post of the original poster i personally think he has a gambling addiction but i dont know him or his circumstances so could be way off the mark!

[custard]

I'm watching Chelsea v Man City. There is not a graph on Earth that will tell me what is going to happen in this game. It is a sporting event and graphs have no part to play in its analysis.

If I had a cricket bat, I would burn it. I don't like "bat and ball".

[dvwooly]

I love playing cricket ... I got 34 versus west indies. Oddly enough I have never placed a bet on cricket in my life. Think I'll be getting involved in the IPL next year though. Place a few swing trades when the big boys are bashing boundaries .... Should be good for 5 or so ticks here and there

[custard]

... I got 34 versus west indies.

34 ? I've scored much more than that in Thailand and I wasn't even using a bat.

[PC0845]

34 ? I've scored much more than that in Thailand and I wasn't even using a bat.

Maybe not a cricket bat, but some form of bat?

[dvwooly]

I just tried to trade the greyhounds, that countdown is a killer I got stung for £19 in one race but I kept on plodding onwards with my 20p to £2 per race profit and ended up 4p down for 3 hours trading!! Would have been better financially if I had done a paper round but trading is my winter hobby so I enjoyed myself eventhough I didnt profit. I was trying something out and I have learnt that greyhounds are tough to trade with decent amounts and any certainty unless it's the tv ones Thursday to friday, 1 tick offset is rubbish 2 tick is better and watch that bloody clock. I turned off Bart Simpson because I as concentrating so hard every time he shouted "I'm outta here" I shat myself!!! On the plus side my entry point was working in the greyhound Market. So going forward only the tv races, evening horses and weekend horses for me. I'm going to analyse every bet I do in excel and create a fancy dashboard. Hopefully I can pinpoint the good and bad.

FatherTed do you bet every race or are you selective?

[Temujin]

Bollingers blown, crashed and burned, withdrew the remaining €25 to start aggain, as I did say last last 200.

Overstaked, got spit roasted just and then blew own rules. Lodged the €25 in betdaq and now up to €50. I will relodge the €50 into betfair when I can relodge (deposit limit).

So instead of having €200 for my last hurrah, I'm down to €50, that's assuming I don't kill it on the purple first.

Methods are fine and the titles of the 3 strats are more complicated than the strats. Basically back when expecting a trend revearsal. Methods are not the issue, staking correctly, didn't red out, upped the stakes, then lost more ticks, then upped the stakes again, instead of backing with a liability sake of €120 (yep this was because I was losing a tenner) I backed a horse about 6.2 with €175 stake and he drifted massively. Then I did the same on the next race, and the next race, and the next race and then I had €25 left (obviously the stakes diminished with the bank).

I still say it aint rocket science, it's the emotions, the rabbit in the headlights syndrome. I am equipped to deal with the mechanics of trading, the emotions of error and the failure to accept that I was wrong (by redding out) are the reasons I failed. I salvaged a petty amount of money, dunno if I can salvage my mojo.

A guy once said to me that "Being human is not a condition", and he is an egotistical wanker, I was presented with an opoprtunity to prove I was I was above ego, I can accept being wrong and failed, so I am also a wanker.

So the question is , am I just a human by failing, or am I a failure by being human?

I am so ****ing annoyed with myself.

Seems you have a problem with commitment. You can't even commit to quitting, so obviously you can't commit to any strategy.

It appears that you are so desperate to make it work, that you are determined to overrisk to hurry the process. Will never work, as all you will do is do the same thing even if you did get lucky. You simply cannot risk all the way to the top, you need to be determined in what you are trying to achieve.

The best strategy in the world does not make a succesful trader/gambler. Bad money management will send even the best broke.

I have been doing this for the best part of a decade. I can guarantee you one thing. I am nowhere near a good trader. A long way further off the best out there.
I am a good strategist, have good scenario prediction, and can make a profit.
But what I am good at, is money management. I understand risk vs reward, and I am prepared to live skint when things go against me (often) knowing that I have to reign in my betting, and get much tighter in what I am doing.
I am far from disciplined in regards to strategy, in fact most of my strategy involves just winging it, on the fly. I don't know what I am going to be doing until I am doing it most of the time. But I sum up the potential upside, and downside, and stick to it.

My point, is that finding profitable strategies is less than half the battle. With an attitude like yours, I can pretty much guarantee that even if you opened exactly the same trades as me, you would be broke within the month. That is attitude, discipline, and all round commitment.

I do have the advantage that I have been profitable from day 1 so I know this is my best way to make money so am determined to keep it going as long as possible, rather than trying to start up from nothing to go full time. I did it from day 1 and committed, so I have the attitude already that I need this as I have no back up.

I guess what I am trying to say, is that it is possible to make money here by being only a borderline trader. That is what I consider myself. It is your attitude to money that will set you apart from the crowd and the punter in general.
If you can't get it out of your head that you need to do something quick, you will never make it. Cold hard truth time. This is no get rich scheme, this is day to day, back to the wall, grinding out profits. That is trading. You aren't giving up work, you are just trying to work at home for yourself. It is a hard slog, and takes a lot of mind control.

Commit to using a small percentage of your bank. Commit to your strategy. Build your profits up slowly, and increase betting according to your state of mind. (positively).
If you can't do that, all the deposit limits, and excuses in the world aren't going to make a difference to you.

[Portman]

i think the bots do this when the market is static, and they're triggered by bets of a certain amount. i dont think they do it if you bet 50.

I call them "mills" and we are "grains". They are driven by the force of hundreds of thousands of euro. They are ready to grind in one direction or another, the result is always the same: if you start one of these mills (50€-100€ and more needed) you can recognize fairly quickly and get out quickly. If you do not accept this thing then you must be prepared to get an immediate red and having to wait for the market to be put back in the right place by most of the punters/traders.
I made tens of thousands trades in the last three years and I wish these "mills" was just made by my conspiracy ideas, but it is not

[dvwooly]

im intrigued by this recurring theme of market manipulation .... can some one expand on it and go into further detail

It would help other traders on here if we were able to see the signs and avoid a potential loss through this manipulation/bot.

Who is doing it?
How are they doing it?
When are they doing?
When can you recognise they are doing it?
How can you win from it?
How can you avoid it?

[flok]

i can answer one of your questions: how i recognize it.

practical example:
the market is very static, with heavy support and resistance ranging between 4.2 and 4.
you happily back 1000 @4.2 expecting to lay it @4
as soon as you place the back, the resistance over 4.2 disappears, and huge lays appear @4 - 4.1 - 4.2 - 4.3 overunning your back and creating a huge support that pushes the price to 4.5.
then as soon as you take the loss laying at 4.5, this support disappears.

[KOTBIIAJIbTO]

These bots might be connected with cross-matching. Been trading today and found out that I need a Stop loss activated since I fail exiting in time. I can make a few ticks here and there, but then get caught by such a wave and lose everything I've earned so far

[KOTBIIAJIbTO]

I would recommend you, PC0845, to use Stop loss as well. It could make you take some additional losses you'd be able to recover in no time, but it would effectively prevent you from upping stakes and doing some other nasty things.

[shadowninja]

A simple example of people pissing about...
A ladder as follows:

200
100
150
1

2
1
1510
2015
200

So you think, "Cool, I'll put a lay offer just above the 1500 and scalp for 2 ticks." You place your order of £100. It's matched.

Suddenly, you see this:

200
100
150
1

2
1
10
15
50

And the market drops cos the 1500 and 2000 were pulled.

[dvwooly]

How about staggering your back stakes up the ladder, that way these bots will just eat up them all up and it's averages out the problem. If you do it 5 ticks up the ladder surely it won't go and match all of them? Then when it corrects you will only need it to move back down 2 ticks to break even. I presume that this matching not only occurs 20 to 5 mins before the off and isn't involved when the gambles or big drifts occur. I'm going to investigate this.

£50 stakes and there is no issue?