The final Countdown

[dvwooly]

I just had a look at your blog, how do you swing trade using just the ridiculous betfair graph. I think you would be better off showing a graph which is the price line, refresh every 1 sec over 900 second range then you can see the long term trend and mini trends.

To make £10 per day using £200 bank should be fairly straightfoward if you back when the big plunges start and use 1 tick offset. Surprising how easy you can take a 1 tick profit. If you striding £20 stakes it won't take long to accumulate £10.

I am doing a similar thing to you. I keep making £30 in an afternoon from a £100 bank only to let one rude in running and then bang!!! I'm depositing £200 in January and I'm going for it one last time. If it doesn't work I'm excluding myself from betfair forever. Pm me and we can discuss some strategies, set ups and money management stuff if you like.

[Morgans Choice]

He's written loads of stuff.

http://www.brettsteenbarger.com/articles.htm

Hi C,

indeed he has. I'm particularly impressed with "Enhancing Trader Performance"

cheers, MC

[PC0845]

I just had a look at your blog, how do you swing trade using just the ridiculous betfair graph.

Agreed, the BF chart is not the trigger, I have / am trying many systems and therein lies one of the problems. 5 minutes is ample time as many swings take place over 30 seconds.

By the way do you use tick offset ?

[dvwooly]

It depends, I find I make more cash backing first then firing in a 1 tick offset bit I get the feeling I'm limiting my profits. I can't swing trade as I don't have the balls/patience/confidence that I will have backed at the start of an offs tumble.

I am moving onto a strategy where I use a graph for the entry and the exit although I keep changing my mind on what strategy to use. It's very easy to look back at a graph and curve fit a strategy. In real time it is often a few seconds before the signal is evident and by that time 2 or so ticks of a move have gone. It's the same with the exit, so a 5 tick move turns into a 1 tick profit using the graphs. I'm happy with that as long as I am sure I can hit the 1 tick profit 70% of the time and I take losses or scratch if it doesn't go my way in say 5 seconds. I have a set which I think will allow me to stay in when a big gamble is on.

I'm using the training mode until next year, I will know by then what is working for me without risking my bank.

When I so the dogs I always use 2 tick offset and usually show a profit until I take my eye off the timer!!! Note to self, start using the sound alerts.

[custard]

I'm using the training mode until next year, I will know by then what is working for me without risking my bank.

As good as the training mode is, it does not replicate real market conditions. Developing a strategy that works in training mode is no guarantee of profit when real funds are used. Sooner or later you will have to trade with real money.

[shadowninja]

As good as the training mode is, it does not replicate real market conditions. Developing a strategy that works in training mode is no guarantee of profit when real funds are used. Sooner or later you will have to trade with real money.

Aye.

Training mode is great for learning to use GT but after that, I'd rather use real money even if it's just 10p liabilities. FWIW I haven't actually ever used training mode. Even when testing stop losses, I used the real deal.

[flok]

exactly! i noticed (and keefter too, in another topic) that the markets "react" to my entry bet, sending the price the opposite way.
i have my theory: there are bots that form a fake market, matching money at the same price until they detect a "real" bet, and immediately they remove the support-resistance and send the price against the bet that just entered.
it happened sooo many times: static market not moving at all, i enter to make 1 tick, and it immediately goes against me. i take the small loss, try again, it goes against me again, and so on.
it happens so regularly that it can't be only bad luck or my stupidity, because even if you open random trades some of them will go your way!
so i stopped prerace trading to stop feeding the bots

[dvwooly]

im only using training mode to practice hitting the entry signals and training my brain to take losses and hit the exits.

Interesting theory Flok, maybe Betfair horse markets are getting like the stock markets with the HFT algorithm bots making it hard for the little guy to survive.

I have made small profits each race (£3 using £20 stakes) basically following my instinct/guessing, im hoping this analysis can get me on the right side of the trend.

I also show a simple 900 second graph as sometimes looking at short term graphs you lose sight of the overall trend. When a horse moves in price its not in a straight line so sometimes you can lose sight of the direction when looking at a short time horizon.

Im also looking at trading in pairs ........ anyone investigated this? If 1 horse drifts another has to shorten due to the overround, surely this is the key to winning??? I also think the key to winning is an automated bot which takes away the decisions and just bashes on bet after bet scooping up a small margin over thousands and thousands of bets. Anyone want to write one for my trading method .... i tried and failed

[shadowninja]

I don't think it's a theory. I see it all the time.











Or am I paranoid?

[dvwooly]

2.55 race

alderwood and sword of destiny are directly linked from my early observations. I think doing opposite 1 tick offset bets when the move is on would result in an overall profit.

will update this post at the off

[dvwooly]

i just placed three trades and took 1 tick on them and all were successful so i win £1.41 no matter what. As the poster is happy with £10 per race he would only need to do this on 7 markets and then walk away. I can do this type of trading for so long then i get bored and go for a big win and lose. I think i have found my style and that is important, i like to take 1 tick or 2 tick profits rather than sit and wait for the big swings. I can always get involved more than once when a gamble or drift is on.

looking now i layed sword of destiny at 2.28 while i was typing it has drifted to 2.44 ..... i missed a big drift but i think i would have been able to get 3 or 4 trades out of that. If i go back in now the trend is over and i will more than likely lose my profit as the market is ranging

[dvwooly]

I don't think it's a theory. I see it all the time.











Or am I paranoid?

so what happens when i put the opposite bet on to say flok .... it cant collapse both ways and hundreds of bets are placed per second?

[flok]

i think the bots do this when the market is static, and they're triggered by bets of a certain amount. i dont think they do it if you bet 50.

[custard]

Im also looking at trading in pairs ........ anyone investigated this? If 1 horse drifts another has to shorten due to the overround, surely this is the key to winning??? I also think the key to winning is an automated bot which takes away the decisions and just bashes on bet after bet scooping up a small margin over thousands and thousands of bets. Anyone want to write one for my trading method .... i tried and failed

I am able to make such a bot but will not do so as it would not work. You have picked on "pairs". Why not "threes" or "fours" ? There is rarely a direct correlation in the two prices of two horses alone. If there are two closely priced horses accompanied by a field of high priced outsiders, there is a chance of a connection between the two. Ordinarily, however, matters are far more complex. Also, bear in mind that others have bots and they are trying to do similar things.

[dvwooly]

I am able to make such a bot but will not do so as it would not work. You have picked on "pairs". Why not "threes" or "fours" ? There is rarely a direct correlation in the two prices of two horses alone. If there are two closely priced horses accompanied by a field of high priced outsiders, there is a chance of a connection between the two. Ordinarily, however, matters are far more complex. Also, bear in mind that others have bots and they are trying to do similar things.

Custard, i beleive you are one of the more knowledgeable traders on here and i think your insights are great, even if you dont agree with graphs If you were doing a bot how would you do it, in c+ and write it from scratch? Im interested as i want to write one but dont know where to start.

Do you run bots or just use that marketfeeder thing as you arent interested in graphs?? Interesting to know how others work. Im 90% graph, 5% market trend and 5% instinct .... probably why i fail!!


I would only get involved on one of the pairs ..... in theory if i was to bet on pairs i would come out with a 0 profit. If my method highlights a drift or shortening and the associated pair is going the opposite way i think i have the %'s on my side.

Its impossible to beat the system and predict the market 100% but getting the %'s in our favour is what we are trying to do after all.