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WORLD CUP 2014 Diary

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  • WORLD CUP 2014 Diary

    Hi everyone!

    Probably none of you know me, even though I have a small reputation in the Portuguese Trading world - I'm known by the username Wazowsky. For those who are interested in getting to know me a little bit better, here is the link for my presentation in the II National Meeting of Trading, that took place in Portugal, on May 2012: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=auNC...D2BDF0C7C3E3CF

    I'm here to share a brief diary on the World Cup 2014. The goal is to provide practical examples of my method of work in football matches, trying to trade on around a match per day, as if it was a kind of Challenge (even though there is no monetary goal, since that is something that shouldn't be done, given that it is like a step taken to go chasing potential losses, instead of focusing on the main point of trading: betting with a positive Expected Value). Notice that the streams in Europe will have a huge delay (given that the World Cup will be held in Brazil), thus you should take into account these handicap on your usual stakes amount and use way lower amounts, just like I will.

    Assumptions:
    1 - Maximum liability of 100€ per stake;
    2 - Trading on one game per day maximum
    3 - Never Trade on a Portugal match (because I'm Portuguese and that could affect my reasoning)
    4 - Only trade on matches broadcast on Portuguese National TV (due to delay reasons)

    Matches List:
    12/06 21:00 Brazil x Croatia
    13/06 20:00 Spain x Netherlands
    14/06 23:00 England x Italy
    15/06 23:00 Argentina x Bosnia and Herzegovina
    17/06 20:00 Brazil x Mexico
    18/06 20:00 Spain x Chile
    19/06 23:00 Japan x Greece
    20/06 23:00 Honduras x Ecuador
    21/06 20:00 Germany x Ghana
    23/06 a to be determined
    24/06 a to be determined
    25/06 a to be determined
    26/06 a to be determined
    28/06 a to be determined
    29/06 a to be determined
    30/06 a to be determined
    01/07 a to be determined
    04/07 a to be determined
    05/07 a to be determined
    08/07 a to be determined
    09/07 a to be determined
    12/07 a to be determined
    13/07 a to be determined

    Good Luck everyone!
    IF

  • #2
    Good luck Wazo i shall follow with interest.... i noticed the description on youtube says with sub titles? i cannot see any which is a shame!!
    Edges are ten-a-penny, execution is everything

    Read My FULL-TIME Racing Traders Blog Here!!
    T F YouTube

    Comment


    • #3
      For anyone else wondering if you look to the right of the play button to 'captions' you can turn subtitles on there!
      Edges are ten-a-penny, execution is everything

      Read My FULL-TIME Racing Traders Blog Here!!
      T F YouTube

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by chuck536 View Post
        Good luck Wazo i shall follow with interest.... i noticed the description on youtube says with sub titles? i cannot see any which is a shame!!
        Thank you

        Originally posted by chuck536 View Post
        For anyone else wondering if you look to the right of the play button to 'captions' you can turn subtitles on there!
        And there you go

        Comment


        • #5
          Brazil x Croatia

          The first game went much better than I expected. Brazil's odd seemed too low to me, considering that Croatia are really strong (even though Mandzukic wouldn't play due to suspension) and also due to the fact that it was the opening match, which usually brings nerves and extra precaution to the teams. Nevertheless, I was afraid of a potential strong entry into the match by Brazil, given that they were really motivated and had the home advantage, therefore right before the match I closed my initial "hint".



          Right after the initial whistle, we could confirm that Brazil wasn't so superior to Croatia as odds initially suggested. I eventually caught Croatia's goal at my favor and later on Brazil's draw. It's impossible to justify every entry and exit of the market - even I don't remember - but the key moments till the break were essentially theses.



          After the half time, I tried to follow the adjustment of Brazil's odd, which was still overrated, and now it was even more clear, given that Croatia's midfield (mainly Modric and Rakitic) were dominating Brazil's midfield and also Neymar (who was playing as an advanced playmaker) was looking tired. However (and somehow unfairly) it was Brazil who managed to get in the front through an inexistent penalty that fortunately caught me with two stakes in favor. I was hoping that Croatia could draw the match - they were actually pretty close to do it - but considering the profit I already had I decided to watch the game and the market. Eventually, close to the final whistle, an opportunity came up, in a quick counter-attack by Oscar which (right in the edge) caught me with a stake in favor of Brazil.



          The overall was quite positive, however I should alert for the final result that doesn't show what really happened throughout the match.

          Good Luck everyone,
          IF

          BALANCE: +282,41%

          Comment


          • #6
            Spain x Netherlands

            This second match went even better than I expected and curiously it was one of my biggest winnings ever in relative terms trading in a football match. Before the game, Spain's odd seemed too low to me (and therefore Netherlands' odd too high), since Spain are no longer as strong as they were 2 or 4 years ago (maybe as consequence of the deterioration of tiki-taka from the players of Barcelona) and thus I backed Netherlands pre-live, which I closed right in the beginning of the match. Looking at Netherelands, and even though they have world class forwards, like Robben and RVP, I initially didn't believe that a fragile and (at least to me) unknown defense could be able to avoid defeat, although I was pretty sure that the game would be more tough to Spain than what odds suggested.

            After a brief and strong start to the match by Netherlands, Spain eventually controlled the game and got to the first goal of the game with some naturally, getting me in a favorable position. Netherlands didn't have the best reaction to the goal and I confess I was almost caught against the market when they scored the 1-1, this after almost being caught in favor in a potential 2-0 after a great play by David Silva. However I noticed that Netherlands were playing really aggressively on defense and with their long game (even though the passes weren't going in the perfect direction), they just needed two or three decent balls to Robben or RVP that they'd easily get a good chance to score.



            In the second half, I noticed Spain came soft into the match and Netherlands still seemed pretty motivated after the goal right before the half time whistle, therefore I risked a back to Holland, because the odds were pretty high, they'd still take a while to go up, and therefore only a goal from Spain would put me in a loss situation. Less than 5 minutes later, the goal from Netherlands came, which basically boosted my profit more than 200%. I followed the dropping of Netherlands odd and, after backing them in a dangerous free kick close to the box, they made the 3-1, pretty much ending with the Match odds market. I was out of it on the 4-1 and this goal definitely ended with this market. I went to Over/Under to do some scalping, but I couldn't get much profitable positions, given that the game was pretty opened and Netherlands still got to score another one (they could actually have score even more ).







            For those that believe that tiki-taka it's done for good or that Spain are no longer what they were, let me give you an alert: both in the World Cup 2010 and in the Euro 2012, Spain had a terrible start to the Cups, losing 1-0 with Switzerland and drawing 1-1 with Italy (being dominated), respectively and eventually won both competitions categorically. I'm not saying that the same will happen this time, but surely it is a national team that can't be put apart, despite the tough defeat.

            Good Luck everyone,
            IF

            Result: +337,89%
            Balance: +620,30%

            Comment


            • #7
              England x Italy

              This was surely the toughest match till now. I was expecting a pretty close match and therefore odds should be balanced between both England and Italy (maybe with a slightly advantage to Italy, given the heads to heads between both national sides), however England were the ones with the lowest prize and, despite that, I decided not to lay them pre-live, considering that the market is manly made by British natives, having much more power in the market, and thus the most likely was that England's odd would even have a lower prize till the beginning of the match (just like it eventually happened).

              After a strong start to the match by England, with decent long range shots, Italy eventually took control of the game and even though they didn't had many shots, they were getting closer to the box than England, that could only create danger from long range shots with low probabilities of scoring. I backed Italy and after a corner kick Marchisio scored an excellent goal. After this goal, everything got complicated and the worst part was actually the delay, given the strong movement of the odds in each clear cut chance. Fortunately, and given that Italy seemed to have the match controlled, I was able to close my position in favor of Italy right in the moment of England's counterattack that turned into goal. I took advantage of the drop of the odds for the draw, now that the market was starting to believe that the probabilities for the game to end tied were getting higher.



              In the second half, it was even harder. After a strong entry into the match by England, which I had backed, it was Italy who got the advantage in the score sheet (hopefully I was out of the market in that moment). After that, basically I tried to do scalping on the Italy's odds till the end of the match, although it was really hard, due to the streaming delay and the sudden changes in the course of the match.



              Taking into account all these challenges, the outcome was pretty positive. Being this the so called "group of death", and after the surprising defeat of Uruguay against Costa Rica, now any of the 4 national teams can go through to the playoff round (with the clear advantage to Italy of course, that has already defeated one of the "giants").


              Good Luck everyone,
              IF

              Result: +133,41%
              Balance: +753,51%

              Comment


              • #8
                Do you ever predict results and give details of your proposed trading before a match kicks off ?

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by custard View Post
                  Do you ever predict results and give details of your proposed trading before a match kicks off ?
                  Well, I'm not a punter. As a punter you have lots of variance and what happens is that most times you think something will happen and eventually you change your mind throughout the match.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Any updates Waz?...
                    Edges are ten-a-penny, execution is everything

                    Read My FULL-TIME Racing Traders Blog Here!!
                    T F YouTube

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by chuck536 View Post
                      Any updates Waz?...
                      I'm sorry I have been quite busy and didn't get the time to post the last games, but hopefully today I'll update the last ones.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Argentina x Bosnia and Herzegovina

                        After England played against Italy, this game, in terms of trading, was way softer. Argentina's odd seemed pretty low to me before the game, however I decided to wait for the match and not place any bet pre-live.

                        The was pretty much biased by Argentina's initial goal from a set piece. However, what we could watch from Argentina's game was far from what the market was suggesting. People believed that Argentina would win easily by 4-0 or 5-0, however it was Bosnia the only team to barely create any clear cut chances in the first half. The market eventually adjusted in my favor and I reached the halft time winning around 50% without getting any goal in favor or against me (I was actually pretty close of getting a goal in my favor which would boost my profit to around 300%).



                        The score at the break didn't represent what teams were producing in the field and indeed the one who was less pleased with this fact was Argentina's coach, which did two substitutions before the 2nd half, even being winning by 1-0. This proved to be worth it and improved Argentina's performance throughout the match. I kept scalping Argentina's odd and after a quick play by Lionel Messi, I backed Argentina, and luckily it was goal. After that goal I didn't do anything else and I just returned into the market when Bosnia reduced the disadvantage and provided better trading opportunities.



                        Argentina keeps betting on star players, even if they occupy the same position on the field. In this game we saw what happens when they don't have any center midfielder playing on the first half (even though they have good players on the bench, such as Enzo Perez or Fernando Gago). If they keep like this it's unlikely that they may progress much in the Playoffs, since the group stage is barely guaranteed after they beat the strongest team.

                        Good Luck Everyone,
                        IF

                        Result: 77,78%
                        Balance: +831,29

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Brazil x Mexico

                          In this game, even though Brazil's odd was low, given that Mexico were pretty fast and able to be a "pain in the ass" with their quick counterattacks, I decided not to go in pre-live, plus, for major reasons, I got to see the match only after around 10 minutes after the initial whistle.

                          As soon as I started watching the game, I noticed what I already had predicted, however Brazil had improved their performance level and were able to create more chances, which made it more difficult to trade with value. Besides, and after the initial adjustment, the odds were around fair prices, in my opinion. Nevertheless, I tried to take advantage of Brazil odd whether by the time factor, or by clear cut chances created by the Mexican side.



                          I was pretty cautious about this game, given that Brazil were the ones more likely to score, but their odds would very hardly get to fair values. However the 2nd half brought into the pitch a new Mexico, that almost scored (and almost conceded of course), but nonetheless provided very good chances for trading. I followed the same strategy of scalping Brazil's odd and eventually made a pretty good profit, considering that I didn't get any goal in favor (nor against me). Indeed, for those who know me a little bit better, they know how much I hate 0-0 games and how I struggle to get long run profit in this kind of matches, thus it was really positive for me ending up in a profitable situation, even though it wasn't very big.



                          I can't end this analysis without highlight Ochoa's performance, who I already had seen shine once against PSG and now he was like a guardian angel for the Mexican side, as well as a boost for their morale and confidence, now that they have pretty good chances of going through to the Playoff round (they just need a draw against Croatia).

                          Good Luck everyone,
                          IF

                          Result: +58,12%
                          Balance: +889,41%

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Spain x Chile

                            In this game I decided once again not to bet pre-live, not for any special reason, but simply because odds seemed fair to me and I was pretty curious to see what would be Spain's response after their massive defeat against Holland, something that was really different from what I expected. The starting lineup didn't please me at all. It seemed an error to me having both Xabi Alonso and Busquets playing together in a game that you need to win, as well as Diego Costa after a really poor performance against Holland and when you have Torres, Villa or even Fābregas that can play as a false nine on the bench.

                            Spain's start to the match actually surprised me (in a bad way). The truth is that I already knew the Chilean team quite well and I was aware that they would be really difficult to beat, but not up to the point in which they barely fought for the victory with equal chances. Hence, I took advantage of the rise of Spain's odd, but unfortunately I couldn't get Chile's goal at my favor because it came after a really quick counter-attack and the market was fast to adjust. Meanwhile, Chile's odd seemed a bit high after their goal, as they were in complete control of the game, therefore I took advantage of the drop of Chile's odd and eventually I got their second goal in my favor.



                            In the second half I was against the market for the first 10 minutes, with Spain pushing hard, however they didn't get to score and the substitutions didn't bring anything positive for the match. Chile took control of the game and I didn't have much chances for trading, I couldn't find any value so I end up with basically the same profit I had at half time. It's really important to know when your best bet is simply not betting.



                            This defeat puts Spain out of the World Cup and thus far it is the greatest surprise in the World Cup. Perhaps it is a sign of a National Team in decline, with a few players that are closer to retire than bringing anything positive to any team (speaking of Casillas and Xavi mainly).

                            Good Luck Everyone,
                            IF

                            Result: +78,54%
                            Balance: +967,95%

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Japan x Greece

                              Before the match, Japan's odd seemed to high to me. Even though Greece are very strong defensively, in general Japan seemed to present more arguments to win the game than the ones suggested by the odds. However, and after a strong and pressing entry into the match by Japan, Greece looked to have things pretty much under control and they could easily reach Japan's box with danger on counter-attack. I was backing Greece, but after Katsouranis harsh foul I realized that he was about to get the 2nd yellow card, so I layed twice Greece and luckily I was able to close my position in favor of Greece and lay them before the market was suspended, getting a decent prize for their increase in the odds. Till the break I still managed to benefit from the adjustment on Japan odds.



                              In the second half, even though Greece were 1 man short, they were the ones creating more dangerous and in this chapter their coach Fernando Santos completely outplayed Japan's coach. Zaccheroni, needed a victory and everything was at his reach, but he didn't have the guts to risk anything on his tactic, terrible. This fact provided lots of chances for trading and eventually I was pretty close to boost my profit after a few clear cut chances by Greece.



                              In the end, it was a really poor match, in which I was able to end in profit, after being losing around 30%. You should also take into account that after Katsouranis was sent off my stakes were at 100€, but the liabilities were much bigger, because I basically did it on an impulse, so I could get the odd going up afterwards.


                              Good Luck Everyone,
                              IF

                              Result: +52,82%
                              Balance: +1020,97%

                              Comment

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