Greek Election June 2012

[dude67]

It will be interesting to see if the victory over Russia yesterday has an impact on the result on today's election in Greece.

The following markets are available on Betfair:

• Vote Winner: ND/SYRIZA/Any Other (ND)
• Number of Parliamentary Parties: <=7 / 8 / >=9 (7)
• ND: Over/Under 29% (18.85%)
• PASOK: Over/Under 11% (13.18%)
• SYRIZA: Over/Under 28% (16.78%)
• Turnout: Over/Under 67% (65.10%)

The numbers in parentheses are from the results of the May 2012 election.

The potential significance of this election on the future of the Euro and the entire situation in Europe can not be underestimated.

I have been able to do a bit of multi-tick scalping in these markets, but don't really have an idea where this is heading.

Opinions anyone?

[dude67]

This chart illustrates the domestic turmoil quote well:



Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Pl..._2011-2012.png

[WhyAlwaysMe]

So are you thinking it might be like yesterday - a last ditch effort to stay in the Euro?

My pure guess is the result may not be disimilar to last time with no one able to form a government. Maybe you can take advantage of the volatility in the market?

[custard]

My "black and white" approach tells me that Greece should leave the Euro immediately, better for Greeks and everybody else in the long term. The rest of the world will then have to get on with their lives regardless of what happens. This continued uncertainty is dragging everyone down. So, I hope for a result that causes Greece to leave. Only a few hours and, hopefully, I will have my way.

It's almost certain that stock markets will fall dramatically tomorrow whatever happens.

[dude67]

There haven't been any opinion polls conducted or published the last 14 days (by Greek law), so there is a great deal of uncertainty.

Greece will eventually leave the Euro, it's "only" a matter of time. They are unfortunately, as someone put it, Circling the Drain. Is it better if they leave now or later? Well, I guess it's the eternal plaster question. But after Greece come other countries....

Depending on the result today, especially that of the Coalition of the Radical Left (SYRIZA), we could start to see the first indications of turmoil already tonight when the Asian stock markets and the FX markets open.

[dude67]

Just 1 hour until Greek polls close.

[WhyAlwaysMe]

Going to be a bit edgy playing Germany if Greece do vote for the Grexit.

[custard]

Originally Posted by dude67

Just 1 hour until Greek polls close.

Whatever happens I will never have much respect for politicians again. Sarkozy and Merkel have handled the situation very poorly. Sarkozy clearly wanted to be re-elected and was such a little shit that he didn't care how much it hurt poor people everywhere. I say "poor people" because the rich have already run away with their money and, as always, the poorest people will suffer the most in a recession/depression.

Merkel is a coward. She doesn't have the guts to make decisions and has issued threats because she perceives that her own popularity/ position depend on them. There is no hope of her acting in a compassionate way. It should not be forgotten that the lenders of money to Greece have made huge profits. The Germans have already profited from Greek misery.

I don't suppose many will have seen it but there was an interview on Sky News this morning which was unbelievably provocative. The guy interviewed was a professor of economics. He was allowed to speak and, for a while, it appeared that those who were interviewing him were paying little attention to what he was actually saying. When they did understand his meaning, they switched him off as quickly as they could.

He said ( not verbatim ), " The Germans have tried to destroy the world twice already with their World Wars and now they are trying to do the same again".

I certainly do not share his views and was stunned to hear a respected academic promote them on live TV. They are indicative, however, of the very highly charged emotions which now prevent rational thinking in this matter.

Hopefully, I will be leaving Europe within the next few years but it would be nice if these things could be settled with the minimum amount of pain.

[WhyAlwaysMe]

It's not easy to see what Angela Merkel can do, I think it will take a mega crisis before the German people realise they are the only ones capable of paying for all this and that they will have to subsidise other countries for many years. They will have to accept common eurobonds and domestic inflation in order for the euro to survive.

[custard]

Originally Posted by WhyAlwaysMe

It's not easy to see what Angela Merkel can do, I think it will take a mega crisis before the German people realise they are the only ones capable of paying for all this and that they will have to subsidise other countries for many years. They will have to accept common eurobonds and domestic inflation in order for the euro to survive.

I agree. Contrary to public opinion, I believe that the Germans are only human. Sadly, human beings do not act in the way you are advocating. They look after themselves.

[dude67]

Greek exit poll: ND 27.5%-30.5%, Syriza 27%-30%

Source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/d...tion-Live.html

It's going to be close.

[WhyAlwaysMe]

I reckon they're be on about 40% each by the end of the counting .

[custard]

Originally Posted by WhyAlwaysMe

I reckon they're be on about 40% each by the end of the counting .

They'll lend each other 10 %. No problem, especially when you don't have to pay it back.

I'll have no such problems as I have just invested heavily in a 3 - 0 win for Holland over Portugal. ( 35 )

[LuckyYou]

ND won! Its fine now! Some kind of relief