Quality?

[Vinyl Star]

When is the quality going to pick up?

Into June and the markets are just completely random in play in my opinion... 500/1 shots coming flying in, volatility all over the place. Little logic behind much of the market moves...

If it's gonna be like this all summer it's pretty much untradeable in the long term I think.

[custard]

Markets are always volatile in-play. It's the reason I like them. I backed three winners today and they all drifted in running before they went on to win. To me, the markets are great and the quality of the racing is superb. It just doesn't get any better than this !

[Vinyl Star]

Prices are being pushed way too much... the market has changed since the first week in May and hasn't returned... it's basically impossible to get any more than £10 matched at a decent price unless you're willing to smash big money on gambles... Pretty ridiculous conditions if you ask me.

[custard]

What are you expecting to see ? There is no "logic" in a horse race, and anything can happen. If a race was predictable, everybody would win. The only person I want to win is a guy called "Custard" so the volatility suits me.

I study form before a race. If I am prepared to back a horse at, say, 4.8 before a race and his price drifts to 6.2, I back him again. If my initial judgment was correct, I win twice. I've picked three winners today but I didn't pick them by guessing. I think you need to pick your horses to back in-running before the race starts. To have no idea of the form of the horses and back them as they race is never going to be a winning strategy.

Please do a search for Ron's posts relating to "in-running". He knows the horses he is going to back before they get to the post and I do the same thing.

[skit]

Originally Posted by custard

To have no idea of the form of the horses and back them as they race is never going to be a winning strategy.

Really? I've been trading for at least 3 years and I never 'read form' for a single horse! And only know one jockey name, Tony McCoy (and even had to google him to actually know his first name). And yet I'm in profit!

You just need to find your own 'strategy' and essentially adapt to the markets. You can't expect things to not change.

[custard]

Originally Posted by skit

Really? I've been trading for at least 3 years and I never 'read form' for a single horse! And only know one jockey name, Tony McCoy (and even had to google him to actually know his first name). And yet I'm in profit!

You just need to find your own 'strategy' and essentially adapt to the markets. You can't expect things to not change.

You have missed the point. I know what I am going to do before the race starts. So, do you ( you are going to back AP ). I am saying it is not possible to win in-running unless you know what you are going to do. So much happens in a race that it is not possible to make successful trades which do not involve pure guesswork.

[macin]

I think it makes no sense comparing what custard does (punting) to trading that skit mentioned. Of course, if you are a good punter you will catch few winners and any liquidity is ok for that as you need much lower stakes (unles you are a mad bomber)... however trading means turning over large stakes, with high frequency, in and out with little knowledge about the underlying asset (let it be, gold, currency or a horse) but with huge knowledge of market patterns... that's just my opinion - no offence. Mind that both punter and trader cannot exist without each other, contrary to what bf thought when introducing PC...
And I can confirm what Vinyl Star says, markets have changed a lot making trading much harder than it was even few months ago. Of course, we need to adapt, but this time, at least for me, the adaptation is extremely hard.

[custard]

Originally Posted by macin

I think it makes no sense comparing what custard does (punting) to trading that skit mentioned.

I am not "punting". Are you suggesting that total ignorance of everything is necessary to trade ? How the hell does one go in and out quickly in a five furlong sprint ? There has to be some sort of strategy. Fair enough, in a three mile chase, there is scope to do things your way but the principal racing now is flat racing. TV pictures are virtually useless because of delay and one has to gain an edge elsewhere.

So, bad news for Ron. You and I have been doing it wrong, son, and wasting our time looking at form Next time, just pick a horse at random and hope for the best. You can call yourself a trader then.

[skit]

Originally Posted by custard

You have missed the point. I know what I am going to do before the race starts. So, do you ( you are going to back AP ).

I don't think I've missed the point. I don't know what trades I'm going to do before a race starts or even in which horse(s) I'm going to focus on.

I don't pick horses, I just try to find good trading opportunities (however/whatever that might be) while in-play.
You can see the challenge I did a few months ago where I applied this kind of trading ...

I do however agree there's quite literally no time for that on the shorter races though.

[1/4 of a millionaire fund]

Originally Posted by skit

I don't think I've missed the point. I don't know what trades I'm going to do before a race starts or even in which horse(s) I'm going to focus on.

I don't pick horses, I just try to find good trading opportunities (however/whatever that might be) while in-play.
You can see the challenge I did a few months ago where I applied this kind of trading ...

I do however agree there's quite literally no time for that on the shorter races though.

As much as I'd love to go against Nigel's views with inplay, unless you're at the track you pretty much need some strategy/runner to play beforehand. The delay is so massive these days you only need to watch ATR vs The suspension to see just how far behind you are, you'd have to be some kind of genius to overcome that disadvantage picking runners on the fly.

That's not to say you can't make money playing in running, my in running bot had a good day today but that plays the numbers game choosing runners from a database not supposedly live pictures.

[skit]

Well I don't think it's that hard really and certainly not impossible. I just play the numbers but in-play that's all. Think of it as a fast-paced pre-live if you want.

Like I said on the challenge I did I don't even usually use live video. It's just an extra.

[custard]

The races have plenty of liquidity. The difficulty arises when a price asked for is not matched. Prices may be seen on screen but they are taken in a flash by bots which are at the front of the queues for matching purposes. It is unbelievably difficult to make money "picking runners on the fly".

There are some very dull people out there. I have seen at least four races in the last couple of days where the back price of a horse has drifted a lot without good reason. Jockeys like Ryan Moore, William Buick, de Souza etc. very often tuck their horses away at the back of the field. If these horses are favourites some dopes will immediately think that they have no chance of winning and offer silly prices despite the fact that the race is going exactly to the plan the jockey has decided on.

I don't have the guts to lay many horses first, preferring to back because of liability, but I would have made considerable profits if I had done so in the races mentioned above.

[ron]

Originally Posted by Vinyl Star

When is the quality going to pick up?

Into June and the markets are just completely random in play in my opinion... 500/1 shots coming flying in, volatility all over the place. Little logic behind much of the market moves...

If it's gonna be like this all summer it's pretty much untradeable in the long term I think.

I find 12 months of the year that 500/1 and sometimes a 1000/1 inrunning price will win a race its not something new in the markets, the logic behind market moves i am guessing thats pre race? if so try and understand the logic behind these moves, BF price reflect those of bookmakers and odds compilers at the tracks, whispers, Form even jockey changes and comments from Race commentators can have an effect on prices "the horse is Sweating profusely, The Male Horse is "excited" as he is surrounded by females" have seen prices drift somewhat alarmingly, the key is to listen and act on it.
InRunning markets will always be Volatile as people open and close good or bad trades or are following the leading 3 in the market.... but within the blink of an eye these can and will change.. Its all part of the game.