World cup 2010 thread

[lewismbet]

The reason I am siding with Emkay on this topic is that many of people forget what a price represents. the price available now takes into consideration the ease of their group. In order to see a large drop in price we will need to see one of the shorter-priced teams drop out or at least a few under 20. Having looked at the groups the seeding system has nicely kept all the big teams away from each other. If a team trading at 50's doesn't qualify this will be spread among the rest of the runners and England will barely move.

Having looked at the market I think the top 8 priced teams should go through barring a major upset and the only real hope is for a huge surge of money on England as the tournament approaches to shorten there price. Who has deeper pockets? The large number of mugs placing 50 quid of the much smaller but more astute value layers/traders on betfair.

Emkay - you mention a move of 7.2-5's. I would have thought this was a little optimistic but would be interested to hear your thoughts on the price stated.

[Portugal at 36 - interesting speculative price]

[Emkayracing]

5 after a 3/3 group effort is realistic. BF reflects what is happening behind the counters at the larger High St bookmakers with a little added on for good measure. Their liability will be all over the shop going into the tournament, let alone when England get points on the board. Everyone from the 18 year old watching down the pub with a pitcher of Stella to an 80 year old with a poodle will want to be on
Lets face it there is not one bookie who is going to stand 4/1 given that scenario. It's a one team book from start to finish. It's 6 - 13/2 now and that could easily become 3/1 - 7/2 when you consider the amounts in question. The BF market will stand up for more and for longer but it's still going to be shorter than it should be.
A slip-up and it could be a different story but England should walk past Algeria & Slovenia. USA is the only game to be in the 'slightly doubtful' category but again that should be plain sailing.

[lewismbet]

Ok thanks for the reply. I will watch this with interest and if England do begin to shorten drastically see if I can get a bigger price on one of the teams I expect to make semi's once England distort the market.

[jibiko]

Originally Posted by Emkayracing

Do not try to pigeon-hole the definition of trading. It's dog eat dog and each to their own.

that's an interesting approach

[crowdog]

Originally Posted by Emkayracing

The fact is that the whole BF market will revolve around England. Even the Beeb pointed out that they would not be third favs in any other country than their own. It was 8+ when I made my earlier comment about the price shortening on the back of a decent group draw, scrub a point from 8.4 then to 7.2 now.
With reference to your point about traders and price movement opportunities of course it depends on each individual's approach. You can back to lay or lay to back and as long as your timing and reading of the market is OK both approaches can be profitable. Your comments about group wins / second round suggest that you would be happy to back England at current odds then lay when they shorten, i.e. a short term investment from 7.2 > 5 or shorter. My view is that they will not win so I will sit it out until the wheels inevitably fall off of their challenge. You will profit, I will profit.
Do not try to pigeon-hole the definition of trading. It's dog eat dog and each to their own.

take your point, as long as you profit it doesn't matter how you do it
I personally would back england at this point aswell as others because I would be confident they would progress, not because I think they would win. i then have the option of hedging or just laying depending on my thoughts.
Generally it doesn't matter to me if the price moves by 1 tick or 10, if I'm sure it will move I'll get in and out quick as I can and if England drop to 5 after they qualify I will lay at 5 having backed higher, win both ways
Didn't mean to pigeon-hole but I'm still quite new to trading in comparison to some and learning.
It may be dog eat dog, we all want each others money I suppose, but I don't like to think of it like that. Forums like this are great for ideas and I don't use it to try and get one over on anyone else. Maybe that's why I don't do this full time?

[Emkayracing]

Originally Posted by crowdog

It may be dog eat dog, we all want each others money I suppose, but I don't like to think of it like that. Forums like this are great for ideas and I don't use it to try and get one over on anyone else. Maybe that's why I don't do this full time?

It wasn't a dig, the point I was trying (But seemingly failing) to get across was that when you say "We're all traders aren't we, looking for opportunites where the price will move" remember that we don't all look for the same moves, or even moves in the same direction. The 'Dog eat dog' reference was solely to highlight the fact that there is huge competition in each market, not that we are trying to stitch each other up

'Each to their own' is more about the approach you take. Your Denmark trade is a perfect example. If we ran a poll you may see 60% agreeing with you that Denmark could sneak through, while 40% think not. Then all of a sudden we have potential Denmark backers and layers in the outright market. Again dependant on timing everyone could profit from backing or laying at the right time throughout the competition but each would have entered the trade with a different overall outlook.

Beautiful

[MykalD]

Originally Posted by Emkayracing

Even though I shall be laying England there is absolutely no point in doing so yet because the mug punters will be out in force nearer the time. 8.4 will not hang around if they get an easy-ish group and then the Carlsberg-swilling three Lion brigade will want to throw their money away - so let them.

So why not back them now, lay them off closer to the tournament when all the "mug punters" get their money in, then put a larger lay on them as the tournament begins? Or just continue to lay them off as the tourney goes on for larger green.

-MykalD

[Emkayracing]

Originally Posted by MykalD

So why not back them now, lay them off closer to the tournament when all the "mug punters" get their money in, then put a larger lay on them as the tournament begins? Or just continue to lay them off as the tourney goes on for larger green.

-MykalD

Why not lay them now? Simple, they will shorten further yet. Laying them after victory on World Cup day 2 makes more sense to me than tieing-up a load of funds at this stage. The fun doesn't start until June old bean

[crowdog]

Originally Posted by Emkayracing

It wasn't a dig, the point I was trying (But seemingly failing) to get across was that when you say "We're all traders aren't we, looking for opportunites where the price will move" remember that we don't all look for the same moves, or even moves in the same direction. The 'Dog eat dog' reference was solely to highlight the fact that there is huge competition in each market, not that we are trying to stitch each other up

'Each to their own' is more about the approach you take. Your Denmark trade is a perfect example. If we ran a poll you may see 60% agreeing with you that Denmark could sneak through, while 40% think not. Then all of a sudden we have potential Denmark backers and layers in the outright market. Again dependant on timing everyone could profit from backing or laying at the right time throughout the competition but each would have entered the trade with a different overall outlook.

Beautiful

You make some good points and sorry if I misunderstood what you were trying to say.
The "we're all traders" remark was made 3/4 of the way through a beautiful bottle of red, currently on offer for half price at Tesco.
Each to their own is exactly what it is and should be, that's why I will be backing England. I am confident that they would get past the group stages, then laying at whatever price they become. I could just lay but I feel that if I'm sure the price will move one way I will act upon it. If I'm wrong I'll take the loss and move on, they won't be my only trade, I will look at the whole market for value.

Stay safe

[MykalD]

Originally Posted by Emkayracing

Why not lay them now? Simple, they will shorten further yet. Laying them after victory on World Cup day 2 makes more sense to me than tieing-up a load of funds at this stage. The fun doesn't start until June old bean

Sorry, I meant to say "why not *back* them now" :-)

-MykalD

[Emkayracing]

Originally Posted by MykalD

Sorry, I meant to say "why not *back* them now" :-)

-MykalD

I just had a phone call. Some bloke wanted ten grand to win one that you are Silk BC from RT.

Should I take the bet?

[Emkayracing]

Where are you with your World Cup books now?

Last day of the Prem tomorrow, FA Cup final next week... Give it a few weeks and we'll be settling down to an embarrassing opening ceremony and reaching for the earplugs when those damn Vuvuzelas start blowing, grrr!!

Altitude is the issue and not heat this time around, the door is open for any number of teams as the market suggests;

Spain 4.1 - No Torres in the opener?

Brazil 4.9 - Look solid, should be favs?

England 7.5 - Barry crocked, Carragher coming back, QF at best?

Argentina 9 - Best attacking line up in South Africa. Monster price.

Holland 12.5 - Robben on fire, dangers?

Germany 15 - Lots of old timers in line-up.

Italy 15 - Yawn. Scratch. Yawn. 1-0.

France 19 - Favs for Handball title, should not be in finals.

BAR 31

I stick with what I said earlier in this thread - I shall lay England in the knowledge that they are perhaps the 8th or 9th best team in the competition.

Argentina struggled to qualify but now that they are there I am going to ride that particular wave. They will dazzle in the Group stages and the price will shorten, I would not put them forwards as a win bet proposition but they are definitely short-term trade material.

[Ted]

France is the only group fav, not odds on. Will be interested to see if a back/lay of the 8 favs, shows

a after 'comm' profit. Everyone seems to think all the favs will win, they think that every week & bet

Chelsea ManU Arsenal trebles & seldom win. There will be failures.

[Emkayracing]

Latest odds from Oddschecker;

Group A

France (11/10), Mexico (7/2), Uruguay (4), South Africa (7)

France in no sort of form but on paper they walk this
Mexico lost to England, Netherlands this week - qualified 1pt behind USA, dangers?
Uruguay will be at home in these conditions, Forlan to bang them in?
South Africa will not be expected to progress but this group is trappy

Group B

Argentina (8/15), Nigeria (5), Greece (8), South Korea (12)

Argentina were another team that struggled to qualify but they should rout these
Nigeria would be 3rd / 4th best team in Africa after Egypt, Ivory Coast and possibly Ghana
Greece have lost the plot since their shock Euro champs win
South Korea would be just about the worst team in the whole competition

Group C

England (4/11), U S A (5), Slovenia (11), Algeria (20)

England beat USA, win the group. Simple
USA beat England, they win the group
Slovenia surely finish 3rd at best
Algeria defend like Italy, only they attack like New Zealand

Group D

Germany (10/11), Serbia (7/2), Ghana (5), Australia (9)

Germany are without Ballack but they should still boss this group
Serbia qualified above France, not walk overs
Ghana now have no Essien. They have their work cut out without him
Australia have a similar chance to Serbia and Ghana on paper

Group E

Netherlands (8/13), Cameroon (9/2), Denmark (9/2), Japan (12)

Netherlands can walk this group with their adequate defence, pacey midfield and classy attack
Cameroon only managed to get to the Quarters of the recent African Cup of Nations
Denmark are not the force of old but can finish second
Japan will take some nice photos and then go home

Group F

Italy (8/15), Paraguay (10/3), Slovakia (15/2), New Zealand (80)

Italy should be good enough here even if they are not ultra-attacking
Paraguay qualified ahead of Argentina and Uruguay, not to be under-estimated
Slovakia are now better than their neighbours Czech Republic
New Zealand were embarrassed here in the Confederations Cup, similar outcome again


Group G

Brazil (8/13), Portugal (10/3), Ivory Coast (4), North Korea (100)

Brazil are a risky proposition in what is a 3 horse race. Qualified as winners of the S.American group
Portugal are here as qualifiers after beating Bosnia 1-0.
Ivory Coast will be pressing for second, possibly first if results go their way
North Korea are good at sinking ships but not so good on the football pitch

Group H

Spain (3/10), Chile (5), Switzerland (11), Honduras (40)

Spain have it all, don't they? Don't they? Time will tell
Chile were only 1pt behind Brazil in qualifying. Could easily be the surprise package
Switzerland make wonderful triangular chocolate bars and their watches rock. Football? Not so much
Honduras have Palacios but then again so do Spurs and they aren't much kop either

Spain, Netherlands and Argentina look the pick of the available trebles for me, at the above odds they pay 3.2 and I would have some of that (4.94 with Italy as a fourfold). Germany and Brazil are in open groups and may not win, whilst France must beat two South American teams who will be at home in the conditions. Group C should be decided by the opening fixture.


Game on !

Last Sixteen

Uruguay v Nigeria Uruguay
Germany v England Germany
Algeria v Serbia Serbia
Argentina v France Argentina
Denmark v Slovakia Slovakia
Ivory Coast v Chile Ivory Coast
Italy v Cameroon Italy
Spain v Brazil Spain

Quarters

Slovakia v Ivory Coast Slovakia
Uruguay v Serbia Uruguay
Argentina v Germany Argentina
Italy v Spain Italy

Semis

Slovakia v Uruguay Uruguay
Italy v Spain Italy

Final Third Place

Uruguay v Italy Italy Slovakia v Spain Slovakia

Major shocks

(i) England struggle to qualify,
(ii) Holland fail to qualify
(iii) Brazil qualify but fail against first genuine opposition

[Desrespres]

Since Nigel has given us his take on the results, I'll have a go (might start a trend). So just for a bit of fun what about:

Last Sixteen:
Uruguay v Nigeria
England v Serbia
Germany v USA
Argentina v France
Netherlands v Slovakia
Brazil v Chile
Italy v Cameroon
Spain v Portugal

Last 8:
Netherlands v Brazil
Uruguay v England
Argentina v Germany
Italy v Portugal

Semi Finals:
England v Brazil
Germany v Italy

Final:
Brazil v Italy

Winner? - Italy

[Emkayracing]

I thought I was doing OK with following the Welshman's predictions, that was until Quarter Final winners Argentina left the competition altogether ??!!!

Sometimes a strong opinion can cloud your judgement

Originally Posted by Emkayracing

I thought I was doing OK with following the Welshman's predictions, that was until Quarter Final winners Argentina left the competition altogether ??!!!

Sometimes a strong opinion can cloud your judgement

Sorry, so many teams to type in , but, you get my drift I am sure. Of course, I meant Italy to meet Argentina in the semi-final.

There are always teams that flop and teams that are surprisingly successful. At the end of the day, only about six teams really have the ability and guts to win it and I have to side, in the main, with the proven top teams of the past.

[Knight Rider]

FIFA OFFICIAL WORLD CUP 2010 SONG - WAVING FLAG
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lyrics

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. .

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........wohooooooooooooooooo...................... .......woooooooooooohoooooooooooo................. ...wooooooooooooooooooooohhhhhhhhooooo............ .................ooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!

[Knight Rider]

8's for the Argies is wayyyyyyy to short to back. Maradona as a manager nearly came unstuck in qualifying so expect him to be fully found out in the last 16 or quarters or even semi depending on how his luck holds out. Seem to remember alot of hype around Argentina ( best players in world etc)at the last world cup which they failed to live up and that was pre Maradona . Did score the best goal of the competition (Argie goal) ....which at the time i remember got alot of people thinking they were a cert to win it.............ooooh look they can pass it 20 odds times before scoring
Hopefully they will storm their group ( similar to 2006) which will help bring their price down whereupon (dependent on the opposition) i will consider my trading options