Tsonga odds.

jimmy · 30th June 2011, 05:42 PM

I placed a speculative bet on Tsonga when he was getting beat in the Federer match at big odds,matched prices from 130 to 200 stake about 90 quid.I stand to make about 15 grand if he wins but I dont know alot about tennis odds and was wondering if anyone could give me probable odds if he gets to the final playing A Nadal and B Murray thanks.

petecuff · 30th June 2011, 06:50 PM

If I were you, I'd green up now and don't worry about him having to beat 2 more people to get £15k, just take the (if £15k for the win is right) £1.5k+ guaranteed, and enjoy the semis rather than sweating and biting your nails all the way through, praying for the underdog!

Back £90 at 170 = profit £15,210
Lay £1740 at 8.8 (current odds) = liability £13,572

Tsonga wins, you win £1556.10
Anyone else wins, you win £1567.50

Go!

jimmy · 30th June 2011, 06:53 PM

Federer was 6/4 fav for the tournament before match he has to at least have a chance.I definately think he will get to final that why im looking for the odds.

TRADER68 · 30th June 2011, 07:40 PM

I dont know that much about tennis either but the semi prices would appear to be out of sinc somewhere (based on rankings).I feel the federer game must have taken much emotional strain on Tsonga.I did back him but sadly not at your odds or at the stage in the game you had.Dont let your heart rule your head,you are now looking at a different trade.Do the sensible thing and take the biggest chunk out and leave a wee bit in to celebrate if the unlikely occurs.
Whatever happens i wish you the best of luck.

Cran · 30th June 2011, 08:46 PM

I'll go and lay Tonga, as my tennis bets always lose, and then you are guaranteed to win

LuckyYou · 30th June 2011, 09:39 PM

I am not a Gamble lover. If I were you, i'd lay tsonga for sure. 1.5k is good reward don't you think?
But ofc this is my point of view. You have your own. I wish you good luck - you prolly would need it...

jimmy · 30th June 2011, 09:47 PM

I am at least letting the bet run through the semi I will make a decision on the final if I get there.

CPC · 30th June 2011, 09:49 PM

That's what I would do. Maybe i'm a gambler at heart, but the reward is great here. What made you put the bet on in the 1st place?

jimmy · 30th June 2011, 09:55 PM

I just thought the odds were overpriced at the time considering it was a quarter final

Temujin · 1st July 2011, 03:18 AM

Why don't you lay out half of it? Then see how you go in the semis? No point working out what to do after the semis if he loses next match.

To answer your question though, they each have a market share. Once one gets knocked out, that market share gets distributed amongst the others. For the purposes of this exercise, lets say equally.

Right now, market share suggests Nadal 42%, Novak 30%, Murray 18%, Tsonga 12% (all rough figures).....

Nadal v Murray
Tsonga v Novak

Assuming Tsonga gets through, 30% of the market is already gone.
Plus, either 18 from Murray losing, or 42 from Nadal getting through.

Tsonga vs Nadal, puts him to about 4.48
Tsonga vs Murray, puts him to about 2.41

Now obviously head to head match ups will change that around a bit. But those are the numbers I would be working on.

Keefter · 1st July 2011, 03:48 AM

lol plenty of people prepared to offer advice on what you should do here, at least Temujin answered the original question.

I havent got a clue about tennis tbh, but, that said I'll going to add my 2 pence worth all the same; Just because some underdog knocks Man United out of the FA Cup, doesnt mean that underdog will win the cup (though thats exactly what happened this year

). Personally I would be leaving this bet on as well though. I might be tempted to take my stake back and keep my tennis P&L clean on my account but ultimately what will upset me more? missing out on £1500 or missing out on a chance to hedge £15k green at much shorter odds? the latter definately hurts more for me, you took a flyer based on a hunch and are in a nice position whatever you decide I wish you the best of luck.

Temujin · 1st July 2011, 04:11 AM

Quote:

Plus, either 18 from Murray losing, or 42 from Nadal getting through.

Redundant sentence. Obviously meant to say "42 from Nadal NOT getting through."....

Temujin · 1st July 2011, 09:55 AM

Ok, this has inspired me to have a crack at the tennis tonight.

Just finishing off my sheet at the moment for future ventures, be back with the details of the bets later......

Having not really had too much to do with tennis, I am relying on theory a little, but won't be risking much if I am wrong so will have a crack anyway.
As far as I can tell Tsonga v Nadal trades at 4.55, v Murray 2.53. As long as I am pretty close with that, I can't see how it can be a loser...

PC0845 · 1st July 2011, 10:13 AM

Time to decide if you are a trader or a punter. Similar decisions for me in the past and I always let them run, always lost the potential greens, always blow my banks and now have to start all over again.

My advice , take at least 1K for yourself and trade the rest on the match as it progresses. Don't ignore a free grand, if you don't want it I will gladly take it for you and blow it really quickly by not greening up in time other markets.

That way, I will feel like crap when it happens and spare you the pain.

Temujin · 1st July 2011, 10:25 AM

Exactly. If everytime you chose the big profit rather than locking something in, then you aren't trading at all...
Obviously if you are basing it on value or some other measure then fair enough, but seriously...

custard · 1st July 2011, 10:31 AM

The moment of inspiration came when you decided to back Tsonga at big odds. I wish I had done the same. So, don't push your luck and take your winnings when you can.

As it happens, I believe Tsonga is unlikely to get to the final, but that would have no bearing on my actions. It's difficult enough to win anything, to throw it away on a gamble would not be a very clever thing to do.

PC0845 · 1st July 2011, 10:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Temujin

Exactly. If everytime you chose the big profit rather than locking something in, then you aren't trading at all...
Obviously if you are basing it on value or some other measure then fair enough, but seriously...

Tue story years ago, Colin Monthomerie last hole in US open . Middle of Fairway, odds were about 2.0.

My mate had 100 on him @ 500 / 1 before the tourney.

We were in the pub and I begged him to green up for about 25K, "Nah, **** it , it only cost me 100.) Monty blew it as usual and he had nothing. No green, nothing.

Green up lads, green up, I know it is extreme to quote the above but take it from me there is nothing as bad watching a good green go red.

It's like the end of Bullseye, "Here's what you could have won",,,,,, if you weren't so bloody dumb.

Temujin · 1st July 2011, 10:41 AM

The question, is would you bet 1k on Tsonga making the finals. Because that is what is happening.

LuckyYou · 1st July 2011, 11:12 AM

I will say it shortly - If you had luck 1 time would you have luck in the second ? Or maybe its not luck lol ? I doubt Tsonga can win Joko. I remember the Australian open 2-3 years ago when the Final was Tsonga - Joko. Guess who won...

Pthon · 1st July 2011, 11:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jimmy

I placed a speculative bet on Tsonga when he was getting beat in the Federer match at big odds,matched prices from 130 to 200 stake about 90 quid.I stand to make about 15 grand if he wins but I dont know alot about tennis odds and was wondering if anyone could give me probable odds if he gets to the final playing A Nadal and B Murray thanks.

I've got no idea about the probable finals odds, but I've got an idea about what I would do.

Let's assume by greening out you can make 1.5k and by Tsonga winning the final you could make 15k. In that case you are actually backing Tsonga as outright winner at odds of 11, which are definitely better than the current odds of 8.4 for this bet. So, your bet is looking like a value bet - but still, would you have placed this bet if you had had to use some hard earned money?

30th June 2011, 05:42 PM	#1
jimmy Member Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 76 Thanks: 11 Thanked 12 Times in 11 Posts	Tsonga odds. I placed a speculative bet on Tsonga when he was getting beat in the Federer match at big odds,matched prices from 130 to 200 stake about 90 quid.I stand to make about 15 grand if he wins but I dont know alot about tennis odds and was wondering if anyone could give me probable odds if he gets to the final playing A Nadal and B Murray thanks.

30th June 2011, 09:39 PM	#6
LuckyYou Forum Guru Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 1,151 Thanks: 477 Thanked 636 Times in 327 Posts	I am not a Gamble lover. If I were you, i'd lay tsonga for sure. 1.5k is good reward don't you think? But ofc this is my point of view. You have your own. I wish you good luck - you prolly would need it... __________________ The odds of succes dramaticly improve with each attempt

1st July 2011, 03:48 AM	#11
Keefter Forum Addict Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 373 Thanks: 95 Thanked 390 Times in 138 Posts	lol plenty of people prepared to offer advice on what you should do here, at least Temujin answered the original question. I havent got a clue about tennis tbh, but, that said I'll going to add my 2 pence worth all the same; Just because some underdog knocks Man United out of the FA Cup, doesnt mean that underdog will win the cup (though thats exactly what happened this year). Personally I would be leaving this bet on as well though. I might be tempted to take my stake back and keep my tennis P&L clean on my account but ultimately what will upset me more? missing out on £1500 or missing out on a chance to hedge £15k green at much shorter odds? the latter definately hurts more for me, you took a flyer based on a hunch and are in a nice position whatever you decide I wish you the best of luck.

1st July 2011, 11:12 AM	#19
LuckyYou Forum Guru Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 1,151 Thanks: 477 Thanked 636 Times in 327 Posts	I will say it shortly - If you had luck 1 time would you have luck in the second ? Or maybe its not luck lol ? I doubt Tsonga can win Joko. I remember the Australian open 2-3 years ago when the Final was Tsonga - Joko. Guess who won... __________________ The odds of succes dramaticly improve with each attempt

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30th June 2011, 06:50 PM	#2
petecuff Novice Join Date: Jan 2010 Location: London, UK Posts: 13 Thanks: 5 Thanked 7 Times in 4 Posts	If I were you, I'd green up now and don't worry about him having to beat 2 more people to get £15k, just take the (if £15k for the win is right) £1.5k+ guaranteed, and enjoy the semis rather than sweating and biting your nails all the way through, praying for the underdog! Back £90 at 170 = profit £15,210 Lay £1740 at 8.8 (current odds) = liability £13,572 Tsonga wins, you win £1556.10 Anyone else wins, you win £1567.50 Go!

30th June 2011, 06:53 PM	#3
jimmy Member Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 76 Thanks: 11 Thanked 12 Times in 11 Posts	Federer was 6/4 fav for the tournament before match he has to at least have a chance.I definately think he will get to final that why im looking for the odds.

30th June 2011, 07:40 PM	#4
TRADER68 Forum Addict Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 427 Thanks: 978 Thanked 315 Times in 242 Posts	I dont know that much about tennis either but the semi prices would appear to be out of sinc somewhere (based on rankings).I feel the federer game must have taken much emotional strain on Tsonga.I did back him but sadly not at your odds or at the stage in the game you had.Dont let your heart rule your head,you are now looking at a different trade.Do the sensible thing and take the biggest chunk out and leave a wee bit in to celebrate if the unlikely occurs. Whatever happens i wish you the best of luck.

30th June 2011, 08:46 PM	#5
Cran Director of Public Records Join Date: Oct 2009 Location: Basel, CH Posts: 2,901 Thanks: 6,879 Thanked 3,052 Times in 1,260 Posts	I'll go and lay Tonga, as my tennis bets always lose, and then you are guaranteed to win

30th June 2011, 09:47 PM	#7
jimmy Member Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 76 Thanks: 11 Thanked 12 Times in 11 Posts	I am at least letting the bet run through the semi I will make a decision on the final if I get there.

30th June 2011, 09:49 PM	#8
CPC Member Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 48 Thanks: 27 Thanked 4 Times in 3 Posts	That's what I would do. Maybe i'm a gambler at heart, but the reward is great here. What made you put the bet on in the 1st place?

30th June 2011, 09:55 PM	#9
jimmy Member Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 76 Thanks: 11 Thanked 12 Times in 11 Posts	I just thought the odds were overpriced at the time considering it was a quarter final

1st July 2011, 03:18 AM	#10
Temujin Australian Cultural Attaché Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 1,530 Thanks: 493 Thanked 1,014 Times in 494 Posts	Why don't you lay out half of it? Then see how you go in the semis? No point working out what to do after the semis if he loses next match. To answer your question though, they each have a market share. Once one gets knocked out, that market share gets distributed amongst the others. For the purposes of this exercise, lets say equally. Right now, market share suggests Nadal 42%, Novak 30%, Murray 18%, Tsonga 12% (all rough figures)..... Nadal v Murray Tsonga v Novak Assuming Tsonga gets through, 30% of the market is already gone. Plus, either 18 from Murray losing, or 42 from Nadal getting through. Tsonga vs Nadal, puts him to about 4.48 Tsonga vs Murray, puts him to about 2.41 Now obviously head to head match ups will change that around a bit. But those are the numbers I would be working on.

1st July 2011, 09:55 AM	#13
Temujin Australian Cultural Attaché Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 1,530 Thanks: 493 Thanked 1,014 Times in 494 Posts	Ok, this has inspired me to have a crack at the tennis tonight. Just finishing off my sheet at the moment for future ventures, be back with the details of the bets later...... Having not really had too much to do with tennis, I am relying on theory a little, but won't be risking much if I am wrong so will have a crack anyway. As far as I can tell Tsonga v Nadal trades at 4.55, v Murray 2.53. As long as I am pretty close with that, I can't see how it can be a loser...

1st July 2011, 10:13 AM	#14
PC0845 Forum Guru Join Date: May 2010 Location: Waterford Ireland Posts: 825 Thanks: 515 Thanked 568 Times in 248 Posts	Time to decide if you are a trader or a punter. Similar decisions for me in the past and I always let them run, always lost the potential greens, always blow my banks and now have to start all over again. My advice , take at least 1K for yourself and trade the rest on the match as it progresses. Don't ignore a free grand, if you don't want it I will gladly take it for you and blow it really quickly by not greening up in time other markets. That way, I will feel like crap when it happens and spare you the pain.

1st July 2011, 10:25 AM	#15
Temujin Australian Cultural Attaché Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 1,530 Thanks: 493 Thanked 1,014 Times in 494 Posts	Exactly. If everytime you chose the big profit rather than locking something in, then you aren't trading at all... Obviously if you are basing it on value or some other measure then fair enough, but seriously...

1st July 2011, 10:31 AM	#16
custard Forum Guru Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 2,023 Thanks: 528 Thanked 1,865 Times in 882 Posts	The moment of inspiration came when you decided to back Tsonga at big odds. I wish I had done the same. So, don't push your luck and take your winnings when you can. As it happens, I believe Tsonga is unlikely to get to the final, but that would have no bearing on my actions. It's difficult enough to win anything, to throw it away on a gamble would not be a very clever thing to do.

1st July 2011, 10:41 AM	#18
Temujin Australian Cultural Attaché Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 1,530 Thanks: 493 Thanked 1,014 Times in 494 Posts	The question, is would you bet 1k on Tsonga making the finals. Because that is what is happening.