bet calculation required

[alanbenjy]

Hi all, first post

Been using betfair and some bots with different staking plans etc for a few weeks, sometimes win and sometimes lose but need to find my own system/plan.

wondered if there are any mathemeticians here or any wisey's that can help with this?

I want to calculate odds and percentages for 3 bets;

The requirement is to get 2 winning Lay bets from 3 to make +2% of bank with max loss of 5% bank (maybe 6%).

A stop would be put on if the first 2 bets win (giving +2%)
A stop would be put on if the first 2 lose (giving -5%)

All 3 bets need to be placed in advance, so min/max odds and stake need to be known.

The start bank is known therefore could something like

bet 1 = 1% of bank
bet 2 = 1% of new bank (if bet 1 wins the difference is very small so assume the same 1% stake would suffice)

If we get to bet 3 then then we must have had 1 win and 1 lose
In this case a break even bet would be fine if achievable or 2% if already at break even?

Ive tried looking at scenarios in a spreadsheet but it gets complicated.

It may not be possible or the lay odds would need to be very low but....

Hope this makes sense and any help appreciated..

thanks

[1/4 of a millionaire fund]

Not sure what you mean by a stop? Especially if as you say all bets are being put on in advance?

Easiest way to calculate things with bots is to start by calculating odds as probabilities then work out from there.

Without any idea of the odds you're using it's hard to say if you'd be able to acheive what you want to a maximum loss of 5% of the bank from a starting point of 1% with an expectation of 2%. I'd assume to acheive that you would be laying at low odds.

[Temujin]

How long is a piece of string? Looked it over, and from what I can see, this can't be worked out without knowing the odds.

If you are placing the bets in advance as you suggest, and are prepared to lose 6% max of your bank, then obviously you are making the 3 bets a combined entity, and therefore your 6% of your bank is used to make the initial bets.

So in saying that, and you want to make 2% of your bank, that is the equivalent of one of your bets.

So:
1,000 bank. 6% maximum loss, 60 dollars. 3 bets, 20 dollars each. You wish to make 2%, or 20 dollars.
To me, that means you need to be laying 3 bets at 2.00 and getting 2 of them home to create your scenario.

Now obviously you aren't going to simply lay at 2.00 or nothing. So to work it out differently, I guess you are laying at 150% of the market. So if you take something at 3.00, you need to make it up with the other 2 bets.
Each of your lays is 50% of the market adding up to 150%. So I would assume that if you took something at 11.00, you would need to make the other 2 up to 140%, or 2 lays at around 1.428...


Before I get any further though, I would like to point this out to you.....

The requirement is to get 2 winning Lay bets from 3 to make +2% of bank with max loss of 5% bank (maybe 6%).

A stop would be put on if the first 2 bets win (giving +2%)
A stop would be put on if the first 2 lose (giving -5%)

All 3 bets need to be placed in advance, so min/max odds and stake need to be known.

If you have placed 3 bets in advance, you can't adjust your stakes depending on the results, as you have already put the bets on. You can't work out the 3rd stake based on the first 2 results, if you have put all bets on in advance....
Basically, I can't see how you will get a reasonable answer based on your current contradictory paramaters, or maybe I drowned too many brain cells on the weekend to comprehend what you want.

[alanbenjy]

Yes it would be a bot as I would need to select the 3 races in the morning, I meant I need to know the stake or the % of bank in advance. I was thinking that bets 1 and 2 would be 1% bank @ 3.5max = liability of 2.5 x stake.

A stop on 2 wins or 2 losses and max 3 bets (selected in selections).
Obviously if first 2 both win then 2% should be gained. Not sure what the outcome would be if either 1 of first 2 loses, what woyuld stake/% be to break even on bet 3 or better?

Hoping to lay 1st or 2nd fav at these odds

[1/4 of a millionaire fund]

Originally Posted by alanbenjy

Hoping to lay 1st or 2nd fav at these odds

Don't think you'll have any chance of acheiving that laying 2nd favs, you've stated you want a 2% return against a 5% max loss so your aggregate odds cannot exceed 5/2