A Query based on Market Sports Trader Blog

[jamiedavies02]

Firstly, i apologise if what I post below is against the rules, any mods feel free to remove anything.

I was searching through the forums and came across the "Clever Boy" thread. In this thread Market Sports Trader Blog is discussed. Below is a screenshot of a trade from aforementioned blog:



Based on this screenshot, I have a question:

Am I right in assuming, that the trader layed 2 selections prematch (in this case Fiorentina and the draw) and then when Inter took the lead, layed them at 1.26 creating an overound of 137%? He then backed Fiorentina and the draw at greater odds to enhance his position.

Secondly, how would you go about working out a staking plan for the above kind of scenario?

Again, apologies if anything is against the rules.

[nigelbleddfa]

These screenshots could be, and probably are, perfectly legitimate but you will encounter some, and some videos, which are fabricated and dishonest. The sums of money on this screenshot are way beyond your present capabilities and, while looking enticing, you should only experiment with very small stakes until you know what you are doing. The guy was lucky that Inter scored first. Two goals in the first ten minutes for Fiorentina would have seen him well and truly stuffed. Isn't it strange that you only ever see screenshots and trading videos of wins ?

There is no easy way of making money honestly, by trading, or any other means.

[jamiedavies02]

I only intend to use small stake, but are my assumptions correct in the first place?

[bazbaz]

It all depends on your bank size and 1) how much risk your exposing and 2) what the likelyhood is of you losing that trade.

For instance if your 'strategy' was to speculatively back teams that were 3-0 down at high odds (because you thought there was long term value in it as in past cases the market has overreacted and given odds that are too high, not that Im saying that is what happens) then you'd only use a very small % of your overall bank. At the other end of the scale if the event that you are looking to happen is highly probably with low odds then you can use more of your bank.

Knowing your 'likely' ROI would be a big help in working out how much you should 'invest' and how your bank can stand winning / losing runs at the 'expected' level

Of course if you don't know if you've got an edge or not then sure just keep going with the small stakes

[nigelbleddfa]

Simply, Bazbaz is right. I think the mechanism of the screenshot is as you have said, but you should avoid this sort of thing until you are totally certain of what you are doing. It's impossible to make a case against any winning trade but, let's just say that I would not have done these bets and probably never will do anything like them. Always look at your liabilities, not the amount won.

I hope I don't sound patronising. It's important to be able to reduce your losses sensibly. Sometimes it isn't worth recovering any stake when things go against you, but, ordinarily, not losing is as important as winning.

[jibiko]

Why don't you ask the poster of the screenshot, betta?

Just some random thoughts:

Wed, 16 Feb 2011, 17:30 start (UK time).

Fiorentina vs Inter: 1-2

6' min 0-1
33' min 1-1
62' min 1-2

1:3.40, X:3.35, 2:2.42 [odds time, 17:01 (UK time)].


position open: lay Fiorentina at 3.50 for 240 eur.
position close: back Fiorentina at 38 for 16 eur.

Time of lay estimation:

a. prematch,
b. inplay 1'- 6'min (before the goal),
c. inplay 33'- 35' min (after the 1-1).

Time of back estimation:

c. after the 1-2 (most probable, let's say 85%),
d. after the 0-1 (this has a small probability to be achieved,
but it can be done sometimes).



According to staking:

It depends on your strike rate
(percentage of winning trades in a big sample).

- try the search box of this forum
(I remember I read some good stuff about staking by various people),
- look in Tradepedia (I think there is a link there about staking),
- check this link also,
- scroogle it.


Notice: If the time of lay, at the above example, was in-play (scenario b&d)
and you know your shit, 1.000 eur is enough
(one or two backup banks can be useful also, for when shit happens).

Ah, and a free tip.

There are two rules in football:

Rule 1: BALL IS A BITCH.
Rule 2: Don't forget rule 1.

[jamiedavies02]

Why don't you ask the poster of the screenshot, betta?

Im not a member or follower of the blog I just read it!

Another Question, what advantage does this kind of strategyhave rather than just backing Inter to win outright? (This is assuming my assumption in the OP is correct?

[jibiko]

I don't know.
A random thought I have is that
Laying Fiore you have 2/3 outcomes going for you,
Backing Inter you have 1/3 outcomes going for you.

Not that it means anything in the end.
It all depends on the way OP trades.

I can't understand the relation of 'advantage-your assumption is correct'.
Can you rephrase it? What do you mean?

...when Inter took the lead, layed them at 1.26...

I don't think your assumption is correct.

It is highly improbable to find Inter at 1.26 after the early lead
(we can leave of course a 10% chance of happening).
In general though, it is all based in the starting prices.

Inter was the small favorite 2.42 and away team prematch.
In this price range, after an early lead, their price dont go to 1.26 .

The 1.26 is most likely achieved after the 1-2 (62'-75' min, imho).

[Wednesday 13]

I only intend to use small stake, but are my assumptions correct in the first place?

Yes, they are, that's the only possible logical sequence of events.

As for stakes, I see they have been widely discussed, and always will be - approach to entry and exit points and staking are quite personal thing, and there is no common consenus what is the best; though, to help you playing with stakes and P/L, I've just "addapted" spreadsheet to do this calculation (strangely, it's simple, but I haven't needed it before; I only had one for Correct Score market), and you can find it here: www.strugar.info/pl; it's under "Match odds market" title, and don't forget to adjust your commission rate, as you'll see that trader in question has 4.2% commission.

[jamiedavies02]

I dont think Im being very clear when explaining things

As you can see in the screenshot, the bets matched are as follows:

• Lay Fiorentina
• Lay Draw
• Lay Inter
• Back Fiorentina
• Back Draw

So my interpretation of that (taking into consideration of the prices)

Pre-Match

• Lay Fiorentina
• Lay Draw

In-Play (At some point with Inter ahead)

• Lay Inter
• Back Draw
• Back Fiorentina

Would this be rouhghly accurate account of what happend?

[Wednesday 13]

Would this be rouhghly accurate account of what happend?

Yes, that's what I said in my previous post to be only logical sequence.

[jamiedavies02]

Yes, that's what I said in my previous post to be only logical sequence.

We must have posted at the same time! I noticed it after I posted

[jamiedavies02]

RE: Simulation Spreadsheet

Any chance you could explain hte ratio column please?

[jibiko]

So my interpretation of that (taking into consideration of the prices)

Pre-Match

• Lay Fiorentina
• Lay Draw

In-Play (At some point with Inter ahead)

• Lay Inter
• Back Draw
• Back Fiorentina

Would this be rouhghly accurate account of what happend?

...that's the only possible logical sequence of events...

Please allow me to disagree.

logical --> yes
only --> no

That is the a. I have mentioned.
Consider also the b & c alternatives.
Logical too.

p.s. Check this out, also:

lay 3.5 240 eur
back 38 22.1 eur


+217.80 whateva (hedged)

That means that you won 90% of your stake in the 6th min.
Not possible. Around 50% is the normal.
More possible to win 90% of your stake is as the game proceeds to its end.

[Wednesday 13]

Please allow me to disagree.

logical --> yes
only --> no

Agree, thanks for correction; it was clear case of thinking inside the box - I sticked to scenario that Inter was layed and Firentina / draw backed after result 0-1, didn't consider other possibilities...