entry point

[thebarron]

(pre race trading horses) over the last week or 2, no matter what i do, after looking at graphs! w.o.m! or what ever else it takes! as soon as i enter a trade it shoots off the wrong way? not the odd time, (all the time)
iv'e even tried doing the opposite of what i was going to do, and it still shoots of the wrong way!!!!!!!!!
even based on the 50/50 law of average theory surely id get it right once?
this has only just started to happen over the last couple of weeks

if i let a lay go in running, it wins?, if it's a back bet it loses?
this is leading me to think of one or two reasons.

1/ im just an unlucky person
2/ i'm totally crap at trading
3/ i should just pack in
any thoughts or advice

( just because your'e not paranoid doesn't mean there not out to get you)

[PC0845]

I tried WOM and found it unreliable, If you want to get "better" I sugegst you try to trade between 15 and 5 minutes before each race as the moves are not as violent in the prices.

I think I am improving slightly but need to get out early as I have a penchant for leaving trades go in Play and have lost numerous banks.

It takes time, time and more time, all I have learned after a couple of months is how bad I am, slowly gaining competence and having as many winning trades as losers.

One more thing, stop going in play, it will bite you, you will lose your bank, you will feel like an imbecile.

One more thing, don't go in play.

Often moves can be predicted like if McCoy is having a good day, he probably wiill come in in price because of all the doubles and treble. Same for Ruby, Paul Nicholls and all the big names.

In Ireland watch Nina Carberry in Bumpers, watch the Shark Hanlon's horses as if a gamble develops it will be massive.

Watch Local Trainers in Local tracks, Wilie Mullins will ALWAYS be backed in Tramore(my Local Track, possibly the worst in the world), he may drift eventually bit will be backed initially.

Lay Dandy Nicholls horses early in the season if they are topweight, He's just getting their handicap back down for bigger prizes in the Autum, stop doing this by August.

Use te ATR and racing post websites and if horses are fancied by all (check Timeform on ART as well) they usually won't drift asnd more than likely will contract in the 20 minutes before the race.

Also try to get out well before the race as prices often swing inexplicably as horses make their way down to the start based on action or behaviour in front of the stalls, wiping out a nice little profit in seconds.

Hope some of this helps and gets you thinking abut the many things that influence the betting markeys.

[jimrobo]

being sucesful in trading is about finding your own way. Often people start by having so many damn indicators, graphs, jockeys, various sp sites that they just have too much going on and they lose focus on what they really need to concetrate on. Its a fairly simple game. The key thing is the price. Sit and stare at a price constantly in the last 5 minutes. Don't take your eyes off it once. After about 100-200 markets you will start to get a feel for how it moves. Once you understand how it moves you can start finding your own ways to profit from it.

Originally Posted by jimrobo

being sucesful in trading is about finding your own way. Often people start by having so many damn indicators, graphs, jockeys, various sp sites that they just have too much going on and they lose focus on what they really need to concetrate on. Its a fairly simple game. The key thing is the price. Sit and stare at a price constantly in the last 5 minutes. Don't take your eyes off it once. After about 100-200 markets you will start to get a feel for how it moves. Once you understand how it moves you can start finding your own ways to profit from it.

Absolutely right ! Too many people fail and kid themselves that they need more screens, more graphs, more anything just to find excuses for their losses. Keep looking at the markets and use small stakes until you have some grasp of them.

Thanks, jimrobo ! We are in danger of having an outbreak of common sense here if we are not careful

[jimrobo]

thanks Nigel! I have been known not to talk out of my backside every now and again !

[inandout]

A lot of traders go in play because they've failed to manage their positions pre off and have a huge red that they realise they don't have the capabilities to recover from pre race trading. People blame a lack of discipline when things go wrong but think they've made the correct decision when things go their way and even congratulate themselves. Some only, initially, make money through their poor money management and indiscipline before it all comes crashing down around them by doing the exact same thing that originally made them money. I hope that makes some sort of sense.

[thebarron]

thanks for the responce lads, all taken on board, iv'e been trading for about 1yr, and
had my ups & downs like you all, been doing o.k of late (small stakes) but the last 2 weeks i have never known any thing like it, as in my post above not one entry goes my
way, is this normal or just very unlucky, i know this is a silly thing to say but why can't
every trade go the right way?

[loktari]

You can never be 100% right. The only way to be 100% right is to have a crystal ball . You can not read hundreeds to thousands of people's minds, you can probably understand what most people tend to be doing, but you can't predict sudden moves, either from big money players, or live events happening, such as a horse playing up. There's lots of noise in the markets and sometimes it's difficult to understand what the trend really is and what the noise is. Sometimes there is no trend and the markets are just driven by manipulation. Watch the markets and adapt to them.

You have to measure the level of certainty on your thoughts, and always let the greens flow until you see there's a reason to close, if you see the slight possibility of it going against you, don't just stand there, close in the blink of an eye, even if it's with a small loss, or a big one, close immediatly because it will only get worse. Sometimes you can still correct it if you know what you're doing, it goes against you really fast, but you know it will bounce a little bit, then you can close.

Anyway this is so complex, that I can't even write everything I think. And there's still lots of stuff I don't know or haven't thought about yet, I'm sure.

[thebarron]

ye loktari, i get and understand all points mentioned, i'm only jesting about getting it right all the time, my point is, if you can get it wrong every entry, time and time again,
why can't you get it right now and then, law of averages and all that.
these last 2 weeks it feels like it's just waiting for me to enter before it scoots off
the wrong way? do full timers expirience this problem from time to time?
or is it just down to (bad luck) (poor trading)
as i say i have had many a good day, but have never experienced anything like these
last 2 weeks

[loktari]

You need to wait for better opportunities. If you can't predict what's happening, don't get in or get in with very low stakes and safe margins, you do need to learn.

[chuck536]

Completely agree with jimrobo, you just gotta find your way without crowding maters.... i have lots of graphs etc but the majority of the time i only look at them when i first enter the market. Recently i had a bad spell and it wasnt until i stripped back to basics and started doing what i was originally again i made some decent money, today i think the avg amount of trades i put in a race was only about 3 or 4.. just gotta find ya own way good luck

[thebarron]

Originally Posted by chuck536

Completely agree with jimrobo, you just gotta find your way without crowding maters.... i have lots of graphs etc but the majority of the time i only look at them when i first enter the market. Recently i had a bad spell and it wasnt until i stripped back to basics and started doing what i was originally again i made some decent money, today i think the avg amount of trades i put in a race was only about 3 or 4.. just gotta find ya own way good luck

hi, i only use one graph that covers all, and the only w.o.m, i use is when a horse has been backed lower than it has before, or when it has drifted out farther than it has been before, this has worked great for me and iv'e had some very good days in fact (thought i'd got an edge) but these last couple of weeks????????? just as i think it has drifted as far as it can, i enter and it still keeps going.
i'll just put it down to a bad run.
just wondered if really good traders hit bad runs ?

[chuck536]

Im not really good mate but im sure they do, sometimes you cant help it. I had a couple of lapses of concentration today and together they cost me half the days money. Id say having an edge is only half of it... the rest is mental, and executing what you wanted to do without letting fear or emotion sway you.

[KOTBIIAJIbTO]

Originally Posted by chuck536

I had a couple of lapses of concentration today and together they cost me half the days money.

Same here Trading is tricky... Earned 10 dollars on the first horse races today, but then took a 20 mins break, went to the bathroom etc., returned somewhat relaxed and first of all just pressed the wrong button which costed me 2 USD. Got a little bit annoyed and lost 6 more on the next race. Then finally came to myself and got 3,5 dollars back. The result is a poxy 5,5 USD, could have been at least two times more!
You should be always entirely concentrated while trading. When you feel relaxed and satisfied just stay away from it! Last two weeks were the holidays, and it's not easy to concentrate when everyone is jumping around and having fun. Everything's gonna settle down in a few days...

[doubleback]

I have experienced the same thoughts, this is what got me through:

Einstein, “It’s not that I’m so smart; it’s just that I stay with problems longer.”

[loktari]

hehe that's a funny quote

[thebarron]

must have been just a really bad run, stuck to my gameplan and had a good days trading today

(just because your'e not paranoid, doesn't mean there not out to get you)