AU - The most tradeable CS known to mankind?

[gun]

Having tried several different approaches to trading soccer with varying degrees of success I keep coming back to the Any Unquoted scoreline. In fact, for several weeks now I've traded this socreline pretty much exclusively. The reason for this approach is that in any game barring the dreaded 0-0's this can provide some very dramatic swings in price - it is, imo, the most volatile of the 17 scores on offer and good profit can be made for little exposure.

My approach is twofold.

In a match where there are no goals for 30 minutes I'll take a small back position on AU - the odds will vary from about 12 to as much as 40-50 depending on the match. A goal within 20 minutes of playing time will near as damn it half the odds. A goal later than that as long as it's not too late will enable a scratch at worst. Obviously if it stays 0-0 you're out, so that is a judgement call you need to make before entering (Hull / Liverpol last Sunday being a case in point).

My preferred way of trading this score is to lay au after an early goal or two. Did this very successfully with Chelsea, Arsenal and MU last Sunday, and again with Hercules v Cordoba tonight. After a goal is scored the trick is to leave the market to settle, and then leave it for a minute if 1-0, for two or three minutes if 2-0 and for about ten minutes if 3-0 (or the reverse scores obviously). If you've the bottle (and bank!) for it 3-0 or 0-3 is a fantastic time to trade AU especailly if there is a reasonable amount of time to go. You'll generally be able to lay at odds on or just above evens.

The ideal situation is a game where it's 0-0 at 30 mins and then 2-0 by half time - this has happened a couple of times and I've been able to use the green from the back bet to act as liability for a lay and ride it all the way out as a free position.

In certain games you can also use AU in the CS2 market (where offered) as an isurance - but that's for another thread if people are interested...

Take a decent green as soon as you are able and I promise you there is good money to be made from AU.

This is my first proper strat / tactic post on this forum and I'd be interested in hearing people's thoughts and opinions.

[neeeel]

I dont know much about it, but it sound a bit too close to gambling to me. You are laying AU when another goal will kill your trade. You might get away with it for a while, but you will get hit. The number of times I was trying to scalp match odds pre race, went in play with a trade thinking " oh I will be able to get out in a couple of minutes" and then get hit by an early goal

[1/4 of a millionaire fund]

You need to remember all prices in the CS markets are related so it's only natural the price may drop drastically when a goal is scored because half the scorelines quoted are no longer possible. On the flip side the lower the probability of something happening the quicker the prices will move so within 10 minutes or so your price is also likely to be double the price you took.

Like neeel says you're basically gambling on a goal being scored, nothing wrong with that as everytime we enter a trade we're gambling to some degree. All I'm pointing out is don't assume you've found some 'sweet' price perfect for trading as all prices in the CS markets are mathematically related and some just move slower than others. But if it suits your trading in terms of risk/reward carry on with it because all prices within the CS markets can be successfully traded and have their own merits and like everything we do in trading you need to find a style that suits you not others.

FWIW I like trading the AU myself but usually do the opposite of what you're doing and am happy to lay the AU because it can move quickly

[Scotty_73]

the problem with AUQ is that in the games where the prices is attractive (i.e under 6) are games where most usually there will be goals.. Barca, Chelsea, Real, Man U etc so laying here will most likely lose you money as it wont drift significantly until probably about 30min or so and by then most likely a goal would have been scored and you are in deep sh!t. Backing AUQ also isnt much of a bet as odds are so low.

What I personally have done sometimes is look for games with 2 teams that are not goal scoring machines, then lay AUQ if an early goal goes in. This is also a little risky but even if 2 goals go in you still need another 2 to bust your trade and teams like Birmingham, Bolton etc rarely score 4 in a match.

[gun]

Thanks for the thoughts, guys.

Of course entering any market in an in-play soccer match is to a certain extent a gamble. What attracts me to the au trade is that I think the market tends to massivley over-react to a goal, and in the event of no goals it can fairly race away.

MF I certainly don't regard it as the Holy Grail (still looking for that) but I do find it very profitable for small exposures. I'm looking at similar possibilities with 3-3 as well - that moves all over the place as well!

[gun]

Following on from my previous post - laid o 4.5 goals at 1.02 - greened at 2-1 at 1.24, backed au at 110, greened at 15 and put £3 on 3-3 - got matched at 510 and greened at 2-1 at 70 - all in ten minutes Swansea / Charlton.... wish they were all like that

[The Joker]

Originally Posted by gundulf

Following on from my previous post - laid o 4.5 goals at 1.02 - greened at 2-1 at 1.24, backed au at 110, greened at 15 and put £3 on 3-3 - got matched at 510 and greened at 2-1 at 70 - all in ten minutes Swansea / Charlton.... wish they were all like that

Nice!!!!!!!!!!

[Timstertoo]

Nice writeup Gundulf!

Certainly interested in other insights you have.

Guess I'll have something to mess around with during the WC

I agree with MF there is no such thing as the holy grail with AUQ being at the end of the spectrum it tends to swing out further in reaction to things happening in the game.

I think CS can be very profitable, I'm just always battling With MR GREED with football. Need to set decent exit points and stick to them.

But it's just so much fun!

[The Joker]

Originally Posted by Timstertoo

Nice writeup Gundulf!

Certainly interested in other insights you have.

Guess I'll have something to mess around with during the WC

I agree with MF there is no such thing as the holy grail with AUQ being at the end of the spectrum it tends to swing out further in reaction to things happening in the game.

I think CS can be very profitable, I'm just always battling With MR GREED with football. Need to set decent exit points and stick to them.

But it's just so much fun!

your arch nemmisis Tim??? And yes thanks Gundulf!

[Timstertoo]

Ha yes Shergar!

It's one of those markets I just bleed some money on then make it back with boring stuff elsewhere.

Would be very easy to stop this behaviour but seeing as I'm not dependable on gambling income I just decide that I'll donate some cash to the rest of you and have some fun whilst doing it.

My football bot will dominate the world though!

[The Joker]

Originally Posted by Timstertoo

My football bot will dominate the world though!

Lets hope it can get past the physics and law enforcement issues though!!!

[Timstertoo]

Originally Posted by Shergar

Lets hope it can get past the physics and law enforcement issues though!!!

Oh they will assimilate, don't you worry about that.

[Longy]

Slightly different, but Barca AUQ was 1.99 last weekend. Had to lay at that price. Problem was I should have set myself a ROI of about 20%, which I could have done about 2.5, but I was greedy and decided to wait for 4's. Barca scored after about 35mins when the price was at 3.5ish.

Ended up getting out for a small loss, but at such a low price you have to look at it, just have a plan in place to get out

[leosoldtimer]

i just get a laugh when people write "what u are doing is not trading but gambling"...well sorry peeps but the bottom line line u are gambling...not matter how u want to look are it.

my 2 cents.....that's all

[The Geek]

Originally Posted by leosoldtimer

i just get a laugh when people write "what u are doing is not trading but gambling"...well sorry peeps but the bottom line line u are gambling...not matter how u want to look are it.

my 2 cents.....that's all

I agree on that. Trading is gambling. I suspect what people mean by that phrase { and we have Adam Todd to thank for that misconception } is that with trading you are gambling on short term price movements, whilst their definition of gambling is betting on the outcome of the event.