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Old 25th July 2010, 09:42 AM   #61
The Real Moaner
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Some good points as ever!

I agree that in the dry, Alonso has a good chance of winning but from what I saw in the wet, and given Ferrari's previous wet performances, I wouldn't be in a rush to back him and with a one spot advantage, can anyone justify Alonso 2.9, Massa 29?

There are certain drivers that the market loves, and certain ones that they don't. For instance, Robert Kubica is always shorter than he should be realistically - as was Schumi at the start of the year.

Q3 yesterday was much like Q3 from last year. Competitive and huge swings. I hope it can stay that competitive!

P.S. Did you happen to see / record Button's price in Q3 right at the end yesterday? What the heck went on there!
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Old 25th July 2010, 10:07 AM   #62
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Re: Alonso's price, Racing Post Sports' Adam Scriven put him up in today's race @ 9/4 with Ladbrokes.

He was generally 2s across the board but that has dried up and 7/4 is generally available.

BF price is 2.88 so 15/8.

Is this those mug punters coming out to play on a Sunday??
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Old 25th July 2010, 10:25 AM   #63
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Not sure I understand your point there Emkayracing? (probably just me on a Sunday morning)

Real Moaner - yes, totally agree on Massa's price being wrong. He should be with Webber and both at about 15 (which you will find some bookies have done).

Missed what happened on Jenson and my data only records 1 minute intervals (I only care about longer term trends). I'm guessing it happened right at the last minute as my data shows the LTP came down from 300 to 30 in the last minute. Did it go lower than that? If my memory is correct I think he set a purple or green sector in sector 2 but I ignored it because I knew the McLarens were slow in sector 3 so didn't pay much attention.
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Old 25th July 2010, 10:58 AM   #64
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This is getting interesting. Check out Schumachers price. I backed him at 850 as he can start on the hard tyre - theory is the hotter it the track the longer it will last and the shorter runs those in top 10 can do on softer tyre. Track is now up to 31 temp according to reports so he's come down to 540.

Thing is he's not the only one who can start on hard tyres. There may be some interesting prices around for podium finishers on drivers you would not expect. Can't see it happening to be honest but I knew the market would come in and there is a very high chance Schumacher could actually be leading at some stage before he has to pit - how is the market going to react to that?
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Old 25th July 2010, 12:13 PM   #65
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Felipe baby!!!
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Old 25th July 2010, 01:09 PM   #66
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That is an absoloute disgrace.

(Had the chance to lay Massa, but couldn't believe they would do that...)
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Old 25th July 2010, 01:16 PM   #67
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It's one of those - you knew it could happen but hoped that it wouldn't!

Gone are the days when the team result came first, it's moved over to a 'Team within a team' setup.

Steer well clear
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Old 25th July 2010, 01:37 PM   #68
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And now you know why there is a difference in price.......

I was laying Massa at 1.56 when in the lead - if the team order never came Alonso was going to hound him at the end and let me trade out for small profit anyway.

I have to say as an F1 fan it is a huge joke and Ferrari should be penalised but it won't happen.
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Old 25th July 2010, 01:39 PM   #69
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Agreed. It's just disgraceful though.

Massa could be laid at 2 when the order came across... I just don't think anyone could believe it.

Alonso is coming across more and more as utterly pathetic.

I'm more annoyed with laying Vettel for fastest lap on the last lap... (Was to equalise a previous trade) but cost me the Premium Charge payments for the weekend.
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Old 25th July 2010, 01:44 PM   #70
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Ha - if it makes you feel any better I some how managed to make my first loss of the season on the fastest lap. Had 3 or 4 chances to take profits on De la Rosa (got in at over 100) but never took it !

Did you see the strange movement in Schumacher pre race. I thought the move was because he would be starting on hard tyres but even when the covers came off and he was on the softs the price kept comming down from 500 ish to 150 ! What was that all about
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Old 25th July 2010, 01:50 PM   #71
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Unlucky mate.

The price initially was definitely due to the possibility of tyres but when it came in play and that 100 appeared to lay, I have no idea. German money?

By the way - Button traded below evens yesterday in Q3 after he had completed his last lap. No idea what went on there. Was annoyed as I had backed at a huge price but had wrote it off. (Learned my lesson with De La Rosa and Liuzzi today!)

Any chance of the win being stripped? It deserves to be.
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Old 25th July 2010, 02:07 PM   #72
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As a Spaniard, I do not enjoy winning a race this way, Massa's engineer team radio was so obvious.

Press conference Massa's answer were also enough evidence for putting everything under investigation.

Managed to get 2 profit on Alonso.
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Old 25th July 2010, 02:12 PM   #73
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Good to you don't enjoy winning that way Torrezno. The funny thing is Alonso would probably have got him towards the end anyway so there wasn't really a need to do it.

As for an investigation - maybe, but I doubt they will have the balls to do anything. I did lay the Ferrari's to be classified at 1.01 just in case along with the Red Bulls. Talk is both teams used flexi wings but that is just talk so I fully expect to lose my stake. Would just be nice if they do take action !
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Old 25th July 2010, 02:24 PM   #74
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After the first race though, this has been a tremendous season. (And hugely profitable!)

Good luck on the Classification. I really hope Ferrari get penalised.
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Old 25th July 2010, 02:27 PM   #75
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flutter F1 View Post
The funny thing is Alonso would probably have got him towards the end anyway so there wasn't really a need to do it.
Again, looking at the faces of both Ferrari driver's on the podium and at the press conference, Im not so sure of that output. When was the time of Spanish press conference F. Alonso was very nervous, like he had a knot in the throat with problems to swallow.
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Old 25th July 2010, 05:04 PM   #76
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flutter F1 View Post

As for an investigation - maybe, but I doubt they will have the balls to do anything. I did lay the Ferrari's to be classified at 1.01 just in case along with the Red Bulls. Talk is both teams used flexi wings but that is just talk so I fully expect to lose my stake. Would just be nice if they do take action !
Don't go so fast Flutter F1, you might still have a chance

http://www.formula1.com/news/headlin...0/7/11071.html

Long story short: Ferrari fined with 100.000 USD for team orders, and case will be submittted to World Motor Sport Council (WMSC)
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Old 28th July 2010, 04:00 PM   #77
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Interestingly the Betfair market was settled before any official classification from the FIA. I know the other markets don't get settled on the official result and are based on the 'podium result' but the to be classified market should still be based on the FIA result. If they had have been disqualified I would have been some what upset with Betfair settling the bets early as 'Classified' !!

Anyway, that's niether here nor there now. What I find strange lately is why people trade such silly odds - it has to be lack of knowledge. Take this for example:

http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/85603

Why did I now get matched on a lay of Chandhok to be classified of £100 at 3? Even if there is a chance he takes the seat come Saturday because Sakon is injured (or slower than normal (if that's possible)) then the true price is about 2.5 (like Senna) anyway. Yes Chandhok could take the seat back but it's unlikely at this stage. Who know's, maybe someone in the HRT team knows something I don't but as my downside is small anyway I am willing to take the chance.
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Old 28th July 2010, 07:22 PM   #78
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flutter F1 View Post
Interestingly the Betfair market was settled before any official classification from the FIA. I know the other markets don't get settled on the official result and are based on the 'podium result' but the to be classified market should still be based on the FIA result. If they had have been disqualified I would have been some what upset with Betfair settling the bets early as 'Classified' !!

Anyway, that's niether here nor there now. What I find strange lately is why people trade such silly odds - it has to be lack of knowledge. Take this for example:

http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/85603

Why did I now get matched on a lay of Chandhok to be classified of £100 at 3? Even if there is a chance he takes the seat come Saturday because Sakon is injured (or slower than normal (if that's possible)) then the true price is about 2.5 (like Senna) anyway. Yes Chandhok could take the seat back but it's unlikely at this stage. Who know's, maybe someone in the HRT team knows something I don't but as my downside is small anyway I am willing to take the chance.
Remember one of your reasons for stopping your blog... You queue jumper you.

It's not as strange as the Chandhok price last week!!!

I was looking up Yamamoto's "history" last night... Can someone please tell me how he gets a drive? Heck, I think he'd struggle to get a speeding ticket in a residential area.

Flutter - Any thoughts on the weekend? Personally, I think the price on Alonso is ridiculous, but I have all year!!!

I thought McLaren looked good until Paddy Lowe's commments.

My "naive" thoughts were that given the slow speed of the corners at Hungary, it could be fairly tight like Monaco? And we know who excelled there...
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Old 29th July 2010, 07:07 PM   #79
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Yamamoto is only there because he is paying!


On paper this should be strong track for Ferrari and an OK one for Red Bull so Alonso should have a good chance. McLaren have gone well here in the past but this season is a role reversal in terms of the car style compared to previous years. It was always McLaren going well on the slow corner tracks (Monaco etc) but now it's the higher speed corners they go better in. Therefore I'm not sure they will be strong enough to battle for pole this weekend. Saying that I do think they have another few tenths to find in the exhaust system but that will probably come at Spa in the next race.
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Old 29th July 2010, 11:13 PM   #80
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just a note of thanks to those in this thread, i've never followed F1 closely before but am finding this thread realy informative

you blokes really know your stuff

cheers
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