Pre kick off trading on the Over/Under 2.5

[jampers]

Hi,
Does anyone do much trading on the over/under 2.5 markets pre kick off (2-3 days before the game).

I'm fairly comfortable spotting likely movements on the correct score market days in advance, but not too sure about the 2.5 market. Is there certain criteria to look out for, e.g - Should the fave have certain odds in the match odds, or should the overs/unders be set at certain odds?

Just having trouble identifying whether the over 2.5 will be likely to move out or in and same goes for under.

Any help on this would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks in advance

Jampers

Originally Posted by jampers

Hi,
Does anyone do much trading on the over/under 2.5 markets pre kick off (2-3 days before the game).

I'm fairly comfortable spotting likely movements on the correct score market days in advance, but not too sure about the 2.5 market. Is there certain criteria to look out for, e.g - Should the fave have certain odds in the match odds, or should the overs/unders be set at certain odds?

Just having trouble identifying whether the over 2.5 will be likely to move out or in and same goes for under.

Any help on this would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks in advance

Jampers

Your post was recognised by me as being similar to the one you made earlier in January. It appears on another forum today.

I will not provide you with Excel charts, frequencies or probabilities, or any other sort of bullshit. I'll give you one live example. Today, if you had staked £2000 on Over 2.5 goals in the Real Madrid v Lyons game about three hours ago, you would have made a profit of £12 at 6.00 pm.

Some games go in the wrong direction and you would lose. Considering the movement in-running, a one tick profit is negligible. My main market is Over 2.5 goals in running and I would not consider trading pre-match.

[jampers]

Thanks Nigelbleddfa for your input at the moment i'm just trying to gather as much information as possible to see wether profits (albeit not huge ones) are possible pre kick off. I do however like yourself like to scalp certain markets in play, but that fear of being caught out by a goal still gets the better of me at times.

Thanks again for your reply.

Jampers

[Ted]

Might move a few ticks if one of the managers plays with just one, a lone striker up front,

indicating they're playing for a draw (low goals)

Team news, helpful for most markets, if different to that expected.

[taxbreaks]

Goals market pre-match will move on three things - most important is team news (is Rooney playing or not?), Weather (may sound stupid - but backed a game in Germany in January in Unders market as it was snowing so hard football was impossible) and the state of the game i.e. in second legs or group stages (other results can determine qualification etc.)

Originally Posted by taxbreaks

Goals market pre-match will move on three things - most important is team news (is Rooney playing or not?), Weather (may sound stupid - but backed a game in Germany in January in Unders market as it was snowing so hard football was impossible) and the state of the game i.e. in second legs or group stages (other results can determine qualification etc.)

I have already backed Over 2.5 goals in the Juventus v Fulham game but now have to reconsider as the pitch was too poor to train on yesterday and there is a fear of snow tonight.

[Wednesday 13]

Originally Posted by taxbreaks

Weather (may sound stupid - but backed a game in Germany in January in Unders market as it was snowing so hard football was impossible)

Soon after this New year, 6. or 7. January, I can't remember exactly, I heavily backed unders in Stoke vs. Fulham game, for exactly the same reason - snow and cold weather; do I need to say that match went over after only 35 minutes, or so (and FT was 3-2); I thought that early first goal was coincidence, and decided not to red out, while second and third goal were scored in matter of several minutes, so I didn't have time to exit after second goal...

Each rule has the exceptions!