Where Does Gambling End and Trading Start ?

custard · 18th August 2012, 09:28 PM

There is a lot of discussion on other threads about strategies relating to gambling/trading on Betfair markets but if these threads are examined closely one of the central points for debate would appear to be - what is the difference between trading and gambling ?

In order that the other threads can get back on course, I thought it might be an idea to ask the question here. Does anybody have any views on this ?

I regard myself as a trader because I try to make more money by "greening" than I lose by "reding". It's easy to be wise after the result is known, just ask the gamblers.

chuck536 · 18th August 2012, 09:49 PM

For me they are the same, its just im far better at taking small chunks than big punts

nevermind · 18th August 2012, 10:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by custard

Where Does Gambling End and Trading Start ?

The extreme gamblers bet and wait for the final whistle.
The extreme traders bet and get out before the game even has started.
The dividing line must be somewhere in-between.

The risk somebody is prepared to take is a different thing. A trader, even an extreme trader, could take more risks than a cautious gambler.

HymaKhok · 19th August 2012, 07:14 AM

Trading is gambling.

It's just one of many strategies. The first bet is the traditional gamble, if left it's an open trade. If you close the position, you've limited the possible profit/loss.

It's still betting/gambling, with many losers, few winners (long term).

If performed with some degree of competence, it allows you to participate longer and change position, unlike the traditional gambler.

valve · 19th August 2012, 07:43 AM

Gambling for me means any procedure you do letting your stake open going in-play.

Cran · 19th August 2012, 08:47 AM

Gambling is when you risk losing money

Trading is when you work for a bank and you either:

Win and get a big bonus
Lose and get your money back plus a big bonus.

ron · 19th August 2012, 09:41 AM

I agree with custard, but for my 2pence worth a gambler is someone who places a wager looking for a single outcome either a straight win or lay.
Those that let stakes go in play fall into a couple of boxes,

Those that didn't realise the event has gone in play(been there done that)
Those that have an power/internet outage just as a "trade" is taken (been there done that)

The inplay trader (all preplanned) seen as gambling by some, but whats the difference between a pre off trader? an Inplayer will (and should look) to take a profit(green) and off course a loss (red) both should be preplanned and the "trader" happy with the red/green outcome.

Pre race trader, wants a green screen pre off but must be willing to have a red one much like the inplayer.

thebarron · 19th August 2012, 09:50 AM

after 2-3 yrs trying to scalp-swing trade (horses), i have finally given up, i find it a total
coin flip, (gamble) i have ran well and thought i'd cracked it !! but now realise it was just a run of luck. i'm sure it can be done, just not by me, believe me i've tried.

i'll stick to football now that the season has started, at least you know which way the
the market is going, due to time erosion, and that a goal can be your friend or enemy.

valve · 19th August 2012, 02:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ron

The inplay trader (all preplanned) seen as gambling by some, but whats the difference between a pre off trader? an Inplayer will (and should look) to take a profit(green) and off course a loss (red) both should be preplanned and the "trader" happy with the red/green outcome. Pre race trader, wants a green screen pre off but must be willing to have a red one much like the inplayer.

Don't let me laugh, what is the difference between pre-race and in-play trader? The difference is that pre race one NEVER, NEVER goes in-play and DO NOT, DO NOT expect that the odds will move respect to actual result, takes green or red.

valve · 19th August 2012, 02:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thebarron

after 2-3 yrs trying to scalp-swing trade (horses), i have finally given up, i find it a total
coin flip, (gamble) i have ran well and thought i'd cracked it !! but now realise it was just a run of luck. i'm sure it can be done, just not by me, believe me i've tried.

i'll stick to football now that the season has started, at least you know which way the
the market is going, due to time erosion, and that a goal can be your friend or enemy.

Agree with thebarron, I can't see anything to catch on in horses, but I don't trade soccer in-play.

flok · 19th August 2012, 02:52 PM

in a famous casino in dublin, there's a blackjack called "early payout blackjack".
how it works: while the game is going on, you're offered to take a percentage of your win or give a percentage of your loss, depending on the cards that are already dealt.
i consider inplay trading exactly like "early payout". you dont wait for the end of the game, but you get a win if in any point of the game you have an advantage.
how many times it happens that you have a 20 and the dealer scores a 20 too?
if you get the win before the dealer takes his cards, you win less, but you win anyway

custard · 19th August 2012, 03:01 PM

This is a trick used by the casino to reduce your winnings when you actually get good cards. Nothing is for nothing in this world, I'm afraid.

flok · 19th August 2012, 03:06 PM

but you can also lose less when you get bad cards...they say the payout is the same as normal bj (i didnt verify, but i think the only positive thing is that it reduces variance)

custard · 19th August 2012, 03:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by flok

but you can also lose less when you get bad cards...they say the payout is the same as normal bj (i didnt verify, but i think the only positive thing is that it reduces variance)

I'm pretty good at blackjack and I accept the cards as dealt and wouldn't want the opportunity of part-wins. I think very few people who go to casinos would be capable of thinking things through properly so, even though you may know the score, the majority wouldn't know what variance was.

shadowninja · 19th August 2012, 04:29 PM

Gambling starts when Betfair's API stops.

valve · 19th August 2012, 05:43 PM

post of the day ninja!

WhyAlwaysMe · 19th August 2012, 05:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by shadowninja

Gambling starts when Betfair's API stops.

This is very true. As I see it gambling is when you are hoping something favourable might happen, without having a proven positive expectation.

Rocket to the FACE · 19th August 2012, 09:42 PM

I think it's up to the account holder.

THere is no other way of defining them.

Tytteboevs · 20th August 2012, 11:15 AM

Imo there is no big difference. A good trade is like a bet within a restricted timeframe. Its up to the trader to define if the entry is value - reflecting on the possible profit or loss and the percentage for the outcomes - just like any other value bettor.

If you trade according to rules (which one should do), then you know your possible loss or win BEFORE entering. The damage may then occur if you let the loss run or cut the win before your rules says so. By doing that the win loss ratio is screwed.

Looking at the definition of trading, i think the biggest difference is that the trader evens the outcome, just like trading stocks, forex etc. The bettor does not have that many options.

Best regards
Tytteboevs

Temujin · 21st August 2012, 11:34 AM

They are both gambling, just gambling on different things.

Punting is gambling on the outcome of an event.
Trading is gambling on the direction of a price. It is just the nature that you use bigger stakes to gamble, because your opinion of how far the price will move in that direction changes and is finite.

I mean technically, is there a difference between somebody that enters a trade with a lay @ 2.00, with an expectation that at some point it will trade at 10000, but never gets trade out value any different to somebody that simply lays @ 2.00?
The only real difference is potentially value. 1 may think it is a 2.50 chance, the other may think it is a 10 dollar chance. Even the one that thinks it is a 10.00 chance may reevaluate over and over again and never find the value to trade out.
In my view, even though the result of the last example was simply a lay bet @ 2.00 with not back bet to match it, the guy is still a trader, just that the trade never reached a valuable variable to complete the trade.

To ask a question that people will pick holes in for whatever reason, I will use a scenario such as:
An in play trader, 2 horse race, both horses 2.00. He thinks that horse A will likely lead, on a leader bias track, and find it hard to be run down. His expectations of the trade are to trade out with 50% of the race to go at around 1.50, and is prepared to dump the trade if the horse doesn't get straight to the front. He sees it as a positive expectation trade, so he backs the horse at 2.00 just before jump.

Now as the barriers open, both horses come out well, and then horse b begins to buck, and the jockey comes crashing to the ground. The market goes in to 1.01.

Some people in here would argue that if you didn't trade out, you have made a pure gamble.
Others would suggest that seeing as the trade out didn't represent value, there was no reason to trade out until it did.

Simple fact of the scenario (as extreme as it is, but has its valid points), is that the opening gamble about where the price would be, was an opening trade, but the time never came where it met its tradeout criteria whilst still giving value, so ended up just a bet.

Moral of the story is, there is many different ways to gamble. Trading is simply one of them.

18th August 2012, 09:28 PM	#1
custard Forum Guru Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 2,023 Thanks: 528 Thanked 1,865 Times in 882 Posts	Where Does Gambling End and Trading Start ? There is a lot of discussion on other threads about strategies relating to gambling/trading on Betfair markets but if these threads are examined closely one of the central points for debate would appear to be - what is the difference between trading and gambling ? In order that the other threads can get back on course, I thought it might be an idea to ask the question here. Does anybody have any views on this ? I regard myself as a trader because I try to make more money by "greening" than I lose by "reding". It's easy to be wise after the result is known, just ask the gamblers.

18th August 2012, 09:49 PM	#2
chuck536 Forum Guru Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 938 Thanks: 448 Thanked 578 Times in 307 Posts	For me they are the same, its just im far better at taking small chunks than big punts __________________ Edges are ten-a-penny, execution is everything My Blog - Recently restarted!!

19th August 2012, 08:47 AM	#6
Cran Director of Public Records Join Date: Oct 2009 Location: Basel, CH Posts: 2,902 Thanks: 6,888 Thanked 3,056 Times in 1,261 Posts	Gambling is when you risk losing money Trading is when you work for a bank and you either: Win and get a big bonus Lose and get your money back plus a big bonus. __________________ 01001110 01100101 01111000 01110100 00100000 00110001 00110000 00110000 00110000 00100000 01110100 01110010 01100001 01100100 01100101 01110011 00100001

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19th August 2012, 07:14 AM	#4
HymaKhok Novice Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 24 Thanks: 4 Thanked 26 Times in 11 Posts	Trading is gambling. It's just one of many strategies. The first bet is the traditional gamble, if left it's an open trade. If you close the position, you've limited the possible profit/loss. It's still betting/gambling, with many losers, few winners (long term). If performed with some degree of competence, it allows you to participate longer and change position, unlike the traditional gambler.

19th August 2012, 07:43 AM	#5
valve Veteran Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 245 Thanks: 770 Thanked 100 Times in 68 Posts	Gambling for me means any procedure you do letting your stake open going in-play.

19th August 2012, 09:41 AM	#7
ron Forum Guru Join Date: Oct 2009 Location: Telford Posts: 1,235 Thanks: 141 Thanked 596 Times in 349 Posts	I agree with custard, but for my 2pence worth a gambler is someone who places a wager looking for a single outcome either a straight win or lay. Those that let stakes go in play fall into a couple of boxes, Those that didn't realise the event has gone in play(been there done that) Those that have an power/internet outage just as a "trade" is taken (been there done that) The inplay trader (all preplanned) seen as gambling by some, but whats the difference between a pre off trader? an Inplayer will (and should look) to take a profit(green) and off course a loss (red) both should be preplanned and the "trader" happy with the red/green outcome. Pre race trader, wants a green screen pre off but must be willing to have a red one much like the inplayer.

19th August 2012, 09:50 AM	#8
thebarron Forum Guru Join Date: Dec 2010 Location: darlo Posts: 799 Thanks: 283 Thanked 721 Times in 677 Posts	after 2-3 yrs trying to scalp-swing trade (horses), i have finally given up, i find it a total coin flip, (gamble) i have ran well and thought i'd cracked it !! but now realise it was just a run of luck. i'm sure it can be done, just not by me, believe me i've tried. i'll stick to football now that the season has started, at least you know which way the the market is going, due to time erosion, and that a goal can be your friend or enemy.

19th August 2012, 02:52 PM	#11
flok Forum Guru Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: ita Posts: 679 Thanks: 497 Thanked 560 Times in 242 Posts	in a famous casino in dublin, there's a blackjack called "early payout blackjack". how it works: while the game is going on, you're offered to take a percentage of your win or give a percentage of your loss, depending on the cards that are already dealt. i consider inplay trading exactly like "early payout". you dont wait for the end of the game, but you get a win if in any point of the game you have an advantage. how many times it happens that you have a 20 and the dealer scores a 20 too? if you get the win before the dealer takes his cards, you win less, but you win anyway

19th August 2012, 03:01 PM	#12
custard Forum Guru Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 2,023 Thanks: 528 Thanked 1,865 Times in 882 Posts	This is a trick used by the casino to reduce your winnings when you actually get good cards. Nothing is for nothing in this world, I'm afraid.

19th August 2012, 03:06 PM	#13
flok Forum Guru Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: ita Posts: 679 Thanks: 497 Thanked 560 Times in 242 Posts	but you can also lose less when you get bad cards...they say the payout is the same as normal bj (i didnt verify, but i think the only positive thing is that it reduces variance)

19th August 2012, 04:29 PM	#15
shadowninja Forum Guru Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: London, England Posts: 1,919 Thanks: 903 Thanked 1,088 Times in 598 Posts	Gambling starts when Betfair's API stops.

19th August 2012, 05:43 PM	#16
valve Veteran Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 245 Thanks: 770 Thanked 100 Times in 68 Posts	post of the day ninja!

19th August 2012, 09:42 PM	#18
Rocket to the FACE Forum Addict Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 287 Thanks: 26 Thanked 87 Times in 52 Posts	I think it's up to the account holder. THere is no other way of defining them.

20th August 2012, 11:15 AM	#19
Tytteboevs Member Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 55 Thanks: 0 Thanked 12 Times in 6 Posts	Imo there is no big difference. A good trade is like a bet within a restricted timeframe. Its up to the trader to define if the entry is value - reflecting on the possible profit or loss and the percentage for the outcomes - just like any other value bettor. If you trade according to rules (which one should do), then you know your possible loss or win BEFORE entering. The damage may then occur if you let the loss run or cut the win before your rules says so. By doing that the win loss ratio is screwed. Looking at the definition of trading, i think the biggest difference is that the trader evens the outcome, just like trading stocks, forex etc. The bettor does not have that many options. Best regards Tytteboevs

21st August 2012, 11:34 AM	#20
Temujin Australian Cultural Attaché Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 1,530 Thanks: 493 Thanked 1,014 Times in 494 Posts	They are both gambling, just gambling on different things. Punting is gambling on the outcome of an event. Trading is gambling on the direction of a price. It is just the nature that you use bigger stakes to gamble, because your opinion of how far the price will move in that direction changes and is finite. I mean technically, is there a difference between somebody that enters a trade with a lay @ 2.00, with an expectation that at some point it will trade at 10000, but never gets trade out value any different to somebody that simply lays @ 2.00? The only real difference is potentially value. 1 may think it is a 2.50 chance, the other may think it is a 10 dollar chance. Even the one that thinks it is a 10.00 chance may reevaluate over and over again and never find the value to trade out. In my view, even though the result of the last example was simply a lay bet @ 2.00 with not back bet to match it, the guy is still a trader, just that the trade never reached a valuable variable to complete the trade. To ask a question that people will pick holes in for whatever reason, I will use a scenario such as: An in play trader, 2 horse race, both horses 2.00. He thinks that horse A will likely lead, on a leader bias track, and find it hard to be run down. His expectations of the trade are to trade out with 50% of the race to go at around 1.50, and is prepared to dump the trade if the horse doesn't get straight to the front. He sees it as a positive expectation trade, so he backs the horse at 2.00 just before jump. Now as the barriers open, both horses come out well, and then horse b begins to buck, and the jockey comes crashing to the ground. The market goes in to 1.01. Some people in here would argue that if you didn't trade out, you have made a pure gamble. Others would suggest that seeing as the trade out didn't represent value, there was no reason to trade out until it did. Simple fact of the scenario (as extreme as it is, but has its valid points), is that the opening gamble about where the price would be, was an opening trade, but the time never came where it met its tradeout criteria whilst still giving value, so ended up just a bet. Moral of the story is, there is many different ways to gamble. Trading is simply one of them.