my nightmare - Page 3

flok · 9th April 2012, 08:09 PM

update - 1 week after the disaster.

it was a positive week, better than i expected, and i retrieved 14% of the huge loss i had on march.

it seems that since i calmed down, stopped trying to retrieve the losses at all costs and went back to the original stakes, i regained control of the situation.
i hope it's not temporary good weather before another storm, but the beginning of my way back to the previous bank.

flok · 15th April 2012, 04:01 PM

update - 2 weeks after the disaster.

another positive week, and finally some luck too.
one day i've lost my shitty connection again while i had a open lay @2 and when i got the connection back i saw that the horse didnt win, and this gave me +3%. after the huge bad luck of the end of march, i really deserved it.

the total of this week is +13%, so even if i didnt have that lucky day i would have retrieved 10%.

the total retrieved from the loss of march is now 28% after 2 weeks.
(it's more than the average profit, so i expect less in the next weeks)

Cran · 15th April 2012, 04:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by flok

it's more than the average profit, so i expect less in the next weeks

probability doesn't work like that...

expect the same as any other time...

flok · 15th April 2012, 04:09 PM

interesting, tell me more...

what i think is:
if my average profit, calculated considering the last 2 years, is 5-10% of my actual bank per week, and in the last 2 weeks i made 28%, i'm surely above my normal performance, and in the long term it will go back to the average for the law of the big numbers, right?

dude67 · 15th April 2012, 04:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by flok

what i think is:
if my average profit, calculated considering the last 2 years, is 5-10% of my actual bank per week, and in the last 2 weeks i made 28%, i'm surely above my normal performance, and in the long term it will go back to the average for the law of the big numbers, right?

No, that is NOT the Law of Large Numbers. (LLN)

You are referring to Gambler's Fallacy:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

flok · 15th April 2012, 04:30 PM

veeeeeeeery interesting!

going out now, but i'll read the links as soon as i have time to do it, thanks for the suggestions

Southwest · 15th April 2012, 07:03 PM

Hi Flok, I saw you say you lost 10% on one bad lay. That sounds like you need to look at a staking strategy - 5 losses at 10% means you've lost half your bank. I see a lot of people saying 2 or 3% is reasonable - that means even a bad run of losses will not kill you.

flok · 16th April 2012, 05:17 PM

it's what i normally do, i use 10% of my bank as maximum liability.
then, if the trading is wrong, i close it and i normally lose only a part of that 10%, not all.

the cases when i can lose the whole liability are:
1 - i lose the connection (it happened)
2 - i fail to close the trading (it happened too... caused by anger, lack of discipline and desire to retrieve losses too quickly. absolutely my fault, if i was more disciplined i would have lost much less in this losing streak)

flok · 22nd April 2012, 04:20 PM

update, 3 weeks after the disaster.

another rather positive week, with ups and down, bad news and good news.
the bad news is that one day i freaked out again after a bad loss (my green up stake wasn't taken for kind of 0,2 seconds, and the price went suddenly against me) so got nervous and started overtrading and taking risks trying to retrieve the loss... collecting more losses, obviously.
the good news is that, remembering the tragic events of march, i regained control and stopped before i made another disaster, so lost only the profit of 3 days instead of the one of 3 months.

total of the week: +10%
total after 3 weeks: +38%
this means i need another 62% before i retrieve the losses of march... long way to go, but i can do it.

i also thought about a theory why i had such a bad losing streak at the end of march: maybe it was the change of season.
i noticed that in many races the odds were completely wrong and, since i dont know the form but i base my trading exclusively on the info i can get "reading" the market, this means that i was basing my trading on wrong informations! can be? what do you think?

KOTBIIAJIbTO · 22nd April 2012, 06:44 PM

That's quite possible, my strategy also stopped bringing me profit month ago, so I had to rework it.

Temujin · 22nd April 2012, 07:14 PM

If it makes you feel better I had a 4 day period last week which cost me the equivalent of the average national wage..... Kind of hurts a little, but onwards and upwards....

Portman · 22nd April 2012, 10:42 PM

The variance is also my enemy, sooner or later i encounter a long losing row.
I can think positive, i can go running, i can perform exorcisms... but it bastard must take its course, and normally it extends over several days

KOTBIIAJIbTO · 23rd April 2012, 11:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Temujin

If it makes you feel better I had a 4 day period last week which cost me the equivalent of the average national wage..... Kind of hurts a little, but onwards and upwards....

Losing 3k in 4 days is nothing for you Temujin, but the Australian average wage level is really huge compared to the Russian one

Temujin · 23rd April 2012, 02:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KOTBIIAJIbTO

Losing 3k in 4 days is nothing for you Temujin, but the Australian average wage level is really huge compared to the Russian one

3k I can handle. I was actually talking about the annual average wage though in 4 days, so you can add a zero there.....

Portman · 23rd April 2012, 03:45 PM

Temujin can i ask you if you lost this sum due repeated personal errors (as go in-play, overtrade, etc..) or it was a 'normal' negative streak?

Temujin · 23rd April 2012, 07:42 PM

I put it down to overcommittment combined with bad timing. I felt I entered with value, and did all the normal things, but I guess I got a little stubborn and didn't take enough notice that maybe there was something I was missing when reading the market.
The way I trade I have a lot of big losses. And variance will bite you in the ass when you bet the way I do.
I don't feel I chased at all, just didn't adapt quick enough after each loss and got caught out big time. Was probably my lack of emotional involvement that kept me in deep rather than the opposite, and variance got me. Certainly puts a big dint in, but I am still on around the same average that I have been the last few years. Just means I need to reassess, and put some serious thought into if my opinion of what happened was right or not, or if I was doing something wrong that I don't wish to admit to myself. I think we have all been there, when at the precise moment you push the button, something happens that pushes the market deep against you. Just so happens that this happened to me for the best part of 4-5 days and I wasn't quick enough to adapt to what was happening.

Good question, and thank you for asking. Certainly provided me the avenue to look a little deeper.

Portman · 24th April 2012, 01:03 AM

Sometimes i recognize that i entered one of this damn period (also because often the signals are evident and repeated) but my mind refuses to invert strategies or to stop trading for a few days.

KOTBIIAJIbTO · 24th April 2012, 09:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Temujin

3k I can handle. I was actually talking about the annual average wage though in 4 days, so you can add a zero there.....

Sorry Temujin, didn't get you at first. The problem is that when we talk about average salary in Russia, we usually mean monthly earnings. Maybe it's because we can hardly predict what's gonna happen in a year

flok · 25th April 2012, 09:51 AM

same here, in ita we calculate the income per months, not per year.

i think that i encountered a exceptional losing streak, and i made it much worse because i didnt want to accept it. due to the positive result of 3 months, i started to think i had such a high edge that made me invincible, and started taking too much risks and overstaking to retrieve the losses.
if i accepted the losing streak and continued trading in my normal way, i think i would have lost 35-40% less of what i've actually lost.

the only good thing i can see is that now, every time i start losing, the memory of the disaster is well "printed" in my mind, and makes me cut the losses to avoid feeling again the same disappointment i felt 1 month ago.
it was a very expensive big step back if we talk about money, but i think it was a step forward if we talk about consciousness of my limits and the limits of my trading style.

(temujin, to barely see your stakes, i'd need binoculars

)

flok · 29th April 2012, 04:26 PM

update, 4 weeks after the disaster

woo, another positive week, 1 losing day and 6 winning ones.
fortunately that losing day i didnt get too nervous and didnt start acting like the idiot i was on march.
i wrote the red negative figure on my p&l sheet and stoppped thinking about it (probably because the loss was nothing that i wouldnt be able to retrieve the day after).

total of the week: +13%
total after 4 weeks: +51%

i start seeing the light at the end of the tunnel, i previewed a recover of 25/35% after 4 weeks, but they have been more positive than i expected.

probably this thread is also helping me to think about what happens in my mind when i trade, and understand it better.
well well, now i must only be careful to not fall in the opposite trap: the delirium of omnipotence after a period of good results.

now is time to turn off the pc and go out, there's a whole world to explore out of the ladders

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9th April 2012, 08:09 PM	#41
flok Forum Guru Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: ita Posts: 702 Thanks: 525 Thanked 603 Times in 257 Posts	update - 1 week after the disaster. it was a positive week, better than i expected, and i retrieved 14% of the huge loss i had on march. it seems that since i calmed down, stopped trying to retrieve the losses at all costs and went back to the original stakes, i regained control of the situation. i hope it's not temporary good weather before another storm, but the beginning of my way back to the previous bank.

15th April 2012, 04:01 PM	#42
flok Forum Guru Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: ita Posts: 702 Thanks: 525 Thanked 603 Times in 257 Posts	update - 2 weeks after the disaster. another positive week, and finally some luck too. one day i've lost my shitty connection again while i had a open lay @2 and when i got the connection back i saw that the horse didnt win, and this gave me +3%. after the huge bad luck of the end of march, i really deserved it. the total of this week is +13%, so even if i didnt have that lucky day i would have retrieved 10%. the total retrieved from the loss of march is now 28% after 2 weeks. (it's more than the average profit, so i expect less in the next weeks)

15th April 2012, 04:09 PM	#44
flok Forum Guru Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: ita Posts: 702 Thanks: 525 Thanked 603 Times in 257 Posts	interesting, tell me more... what i think is: if my average profit, calculated considering the last 2 years, is 5-10% of my actual bank per week, and in the last 2 weeks i made 28%, i'm surely above my normal performance, and in the long term it will go back to the average for the law of the big numbers, right?

15th April 2012, 04:30 PM	#46
flok Forum Guru Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: ita Posts: 702 Thanks: 525 Thanked 603 Times in 257 Posts	veeeeeeeery interesting! going out now, but i'll read the links as soon as i have time to do it, thanks for the suggestions

15th April 2012, 07:03 PM	#47
Southwest Novice Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 25 Thanks: 9 Thanked 14 Times in 7 Posts	Hi Flok, I saw you say you lost 10% on one bad lay. That sounds like you need to look at a staking strategy - 5 losses at 10% means you've lost half your bank. I see a lot of people saying 2 or 3% is reasonable - that means even a bad run of losses will not kill you.

16th April 2012, 05:17 PM	#48
flok Forum Guru Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: ita Posts: 702 Thanks: 525 Thanked 603 Times in 257 Posts	it's what i normally do, i use 10% of my bank as maximum liability. then, if the trading is wrong, i close it and i normally lose only a part of that 10%, not all. the cases when i can lose the whole liability are: 1 - i lose the connection (it happened) 2 - i fail to close the trading (it happened too... caused by anger, lack of discipline and desire to retrieve losses too quickly. absolutely my fault, if i was more disciplined i would have lost much less in this losing streak)

22nd April 2012, 04:20 PM	#49
flok Forum Guru Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: ita Posts: 702 Thanks: 525 Thanked 603 Times in 257 Posts	update, 3 weeks after the disaster. another rather positive week, with ups and down, bad news and good news. the bad news is that one day i freaked out again after a bad loss (my green up stake wasn't taken for kind of 0,2 seconds, and the price went suddenly against me) so got nervous and started overtrading and taking risks trying to retrieve the loss... collecting more losses, obviously. the good news is that, remembering the tragic events of march, i regained control and stopped before i made another disaster, so lost only the profit of 3 days instead of the one of 3 months. total of the week: +10% total after 3 weeks: +38% this means i need another 62% before i retrieve the losses of march... long way to go, but i can do it. i also thought about a theory why i had such a bad losing streak at the end of march: maybe it was the change of season. i noticed that in many races the odds were completely wrong and, since i dont know the form but i base my trading exclusively on the info i can get "reading" the market, this means that i was basing my trading on wrong informations! can be? what do you think?

22nd April 2012, 06:44 PM	#50
KOTBIIAJIbTO Forum Guru Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: Moscow, Russia Posts: 1,786 Thanks: 2,773 Thanked 2,003 Times in 849 Posts	That's quite possible, my strategy also stopped bringing me profit month ago, so I had to rework it.

22nd April 2012, 07:14 PM	#51
Temujin Australian Cultural Attaché Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 1,530 Thanks: 493 Thanked 1,015 Times in 494 Posts	If it makes you feel better I had a 4 day period last week which cost me the equivalent of the average national wage..... Kind of hurts a little, but onwards and upwards....

22nd April 2012, 10:42 PM	#52
Portman Forum Addict Join Date: Jan 2011 Location: Italy Posts: 394 Thanks: 211 Thanked 204 Times in 122 Posts	The variance is also my enemy, sooner or later i encounter a long losing row. I can think positive, i can go running, i can perform exorcisms... but it bastard must take its course, and normally it extends over several days

23rd April 2012, 03:45 PM	#55
Portman Forum Addict Join Date: Jan 2011 Location: Italy Posts: 394 Thanks: 211 Thanked 204 Times in 122 Posts	Temujin can i ask you if you lost this sum due repeated personal errors (as go in-play, overtrade, etc..) or it was a 'normal' negative streak?

23rd April 2012, 07:42 PM	#56
Temujin Australian Cultural Attaché Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 1,530 Thanks: 493 Thanked 1,015 Times in 494 Posts	I put it down to overcommittment combined with bad timing. I felt I entered with value, and did all the normal things, but I guess I got a little stubborn and didn't take enough notice that maybe there was something I was missing when reading the market. The way I trade I have a lot of big losses. And variance will bite you in the ass when you bet the way I do. I don't feel I chased at all, just didn't adapt quick enough after each loss and got caught out big time. Was probably my lack of emotional involvement that kept me in deep rather than the opposite, and variance got me. Certainly puts a big dint in, but I am still on around the same average that I have been the last few years. Just means I need to reassess, and put some serious thought into if my opinion of what happened was right or not, or if I was doing something wrong that I don't wish to admit to myself. I think we have all been there, when at the precise moment you push the button, something happens that pushes the market deep against you. Just so happens that this happened to me for the best part of 4-5 days and I wasn't quick enough to adapt to what was happening. Good question, and thank you for asking. Certainly provided me the avenue to look a little deeper.

24th April 2012, 01:03 AM	#57
Portman Forum Addict Join Date: Jan 2011 Location: Italy Posts: 394 Thanks: 211 Thanked 204 Times in 122 Posts	Sometimes i recognize that i entered one of this damn period (also because often the signals are evident and repeated) but my mind refuses to invert strategies or to stop trading for a few days.

25th April 2012, 09:51 AM	#59
flok Forum Guru Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: ita Posts: 702 Thanks: 525 Thanked 603 Times in 257 Posts	same here, in ita we calculate the income per months, not per year. i think that i encountered a exceptional losing streak, and i made it much worse because i didnt want to accept it. due to the positive result of 3 months, i started to think i had such a high edge that made me invincible, and started taking too much risks and overstaking to retrieve the losses. if i accepted the losing streak and continued trading in my normal way, i think i would have lost 35-40% less of what i've actually lost. the only good thing i can see is that now, every time i start losing, the memory of the disaster is well "printed" in my mind, and makes me cut the losses to avoid feeling again the same disappointment i felt 1 month ago. it was a very expensive big step back if we talk about money, but i think it was a step forward if we talk about consciousness of my limits and the limits of my trading style. (temujin, to barely see your stakes, i'd need binoculars )

29th April 2012, 04:26 PM	#60
flok Forum Guru Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: ita Posts: 702 Thanks: 525 Thanked 603 Times in 257 Posts	update, 4 weeks after the disaster woo, another positive week, 1 losing day and 6 winning ones. fortunately that losing day i didnt get too nervous and didnt start acting like the idiot i was on march. i wrote the red negative figure on my p&l sheet and stoppped thinking about it (probably because the loss was nothing that i wouldnt be able to retrieve the day after). total of the week: +13% total after 4 weeks: +51% i start seeing the light at the end of the tunnel, i previewed a recover of 25/35% after 4 weeks, but they have been more positive than i expected. probably this thread is also helping me to think about what happens in my mind when i trade, and understand it better. well well, now i must only be careful to not fall in the opposite trap: the delirium of omnipotence after a period of good results. now is time to turn off the pc and go out, there's a whole world to explore out of the ladders